Hand History Help
So here is one of the hands that came up;
I have my suspicions of what I should have done, but this hand has been bothering me through the week.
Venetian $200 Freezeout 5000 starting chips
Level three 100-200 with 25 ante -
I have about 3200 chips at a ten handed table
I have been playing well and have a fairly TA image. I have just lost a big pot when I folded AQ Top two pair vs a set so I have shown I can lay down a hand. There is only one other 'player' at the table that is capable of stealing or making a play. The play has been passive minus the one player all other big pots have been good hand vs good hand.
Then this comes up;
I have 99 utg +1
UTG Limps for 200
I call 200, as does everyone else except the cutoff
The button makes it 1400 - this is the player I am concerned about
I put his range on any pair, or any broadway cards and AK-AT, I don't think he has 67s etc as he has commited himself to the pot with 2400 back after his raise.
Everyone folds to me - what do you do?
These are the situations that I had some troubles with and am looking for some insight.
Thanks
I have my suspicions of what I should have done, but this hand has been bothering me through the week.
Venetian $200 Freezeout 5000 starting chips
Level three 100-200 with 25 ante -
I have about 3200 chips at a ten handed table
I have been playing well and have a fairly TA image. I have just lost a big pot when I folded AQ Top two pair vs a set so I have shown I can lay down a hand. There is only one other 'player' at the table that is capable of stealing or making a play. The play has been passive minus the one player all other big pots have been good hand vs good hand.
Then this comes up;
I have 99 utg +1
UTG Limps for 200
I call 200, as does everyone else except the cutoff
The button makes it 1400 - this is the player I am concerned about
I put his range on any pair, or any broadway cards and AK-AT, I don't think he has 67s etc as he has commited himself to the pot with 2400 back after his raise.
Everyone folds to me - what do you do?
These are the situations that I had some troubles with and am looking for some insight.
Thanks
Comments
Obviously you called and he hit a higher pair. I say A10 or KQ.
Tactical Thinking:
The pot is 1800+1400=3200 right?
If you call the pot will be 4600 and you will have 1800 behind... Looks like this is a decision for all your chips.
If you push it he will have to call an 1800 reraise to win a 5000 pot so.. I don't think you have much fold equity.
Doing a quick calculation of your chances vs two broadways or any pair .......... you're a favorite 55/45.
Push it all in there!
Strategic Thinking:
If you get rid of the only dangerous player you can eat all the sushi you want.
Push it all in there!
He puts the villan on any pair or any two broadways. The hero is ahead of that range 55/45.
Get the money in.
Sorry, I don't agree. He only has 200+25 in the pot at this point so why risk the entire tournament on a 55/45 shot? Maybe a +EV move, but I still think it is still too early. With an M of approx. 5+, it is pretty close but most of the players at the table are probably in the same shape so it is relative. He probably did what you are recommending and was on the losing end (45%) and if he took my approach, he may still have had a chance at winning the tournament. I'm assuming over pair or AT to AK. If you are ahead, its a different decision.
btw, I be interested to hear what the Ching Hill players think as they make these decisions every Thursday.
if you push now, it is completely transparent what you have and the button will be able to call correctly with an overpair or overcards and fold with an underpair.
is the button smart enough to figure what kind of hand is poor enough to limp from EP but good enough to call a pot-committing raise? again, seems pretty obvious and the button will play you correctly and quite likely outplay you post-flop.
as it is, you are pretty much screwed. i'd say your best choice is to fold but if you are intent on playing it, push and hope he has an underpair or doesn't get lucky with his over cards OR you get lucky and hit your card. on the other hand, a stop and go has a chance of working if the flop comes all low and he has only over cards.
By limping instead & with the 1400 raise, the pot is currently 2,950 (550 antes & blinds + 200 * 5 limpers + 1400). Your decision again is all-in or fold. Given your aggressive opponent's range, the correct EV-maximizing decision is to reraise all-in. You are risking your remaining 2,975 to win the pot of 4,725, assuming your opponent will call given his 3-to-1 pot odds.
Even if we assume that you are only 55/45 against your opponent's range, you have a highly positive expectation.
EV = 0.45 * -2975 + 0.55 * 4725 = +1,260
Only if you have good reason to believe that a potential caller has a monster hand would folding be the correct decision, e.g., a rock who would only raise with the top 5% of hands.
Tournament players who make a lot of correct EV-maximimizing decisions will win or cash a lot more than the players who continually pass up on the limited +EV opportunities. Players who are scared of variance or who mistakenly think that they can outplay their supposedly much less skilled opponents while being in the Red Zone will not be as successful.
This hand really exemplified the trip for me... I really was wearing a skirt. I find this funny as I have no problem pushing $120 preflop here in a 2/5 in the same place if this was a cash game and the button bet $40 in the same scenario. However, I have been really passive in these tournament situations. And most of these were $200 tourneys.
I think raising here is the right scenario, although the button is a good player, he would probably over value my EP limp and may lay down.
The fact that he bet 7x blind on the button shows he really doesn't want action, I think if he had AA-QQ he probably only bets 800-900 as he would have position with a monster and the table has been somewhat passive.
So, as I am faced with the raise because of the early mistake, I think I should have at least called here if not three bet.
I still have fold equity and have a chance to push on a raggety flop so I can take this pot away if I am not already hugely ahead.
I am the only player that the button has to fear as I am the only one that has three bet another on of his steals. So I should have some image to him.
So I have to get out of this rutt of playing like a pussy...
Any suggestions?
It was level 4 - 100/200 plus 25
This was the Friday Bounty, and the chips I guess have been increased to 5k as that is what I have written however I am known to be wrong.
Why does the table know this? If it's because you felt the need to inform the world of how great your play was, then you just found a leak.
Well, that was part of it. I needed to have the hero applaud!
But the bigger reason is that I wanted to see the other cards. Again this is a big part of my game, I typically am able to see alot of hole cards, get people talking and get them having fun.
This was shut out for me for the most part in vegas, which in turn hit my confidence somewhat, hence, I wasn't playing my game.
This is something that is lost online and I think is why my live results are far outweighing my online results. I have also found that because I have been focusing so much of my attention to online lately, I have become somewhat systematic, predictable and bored playing. This carried over unto my live game.
I should want to go all in here because he does have enough fold equity to lay his hand down. I really don't want to take a flip for my tournament but I should be prepared to do so.
If he folds - he would have ~2800 left and might pick another spot.
Although, if I push; he will be getting close to 3-1 so his correct decision is to call with pretty much any of the range I put him on.
My thinking was; I am running bad, I don't want to flip for my tournament, I can pick up chips from easier players. Upon reflection, I have to stop swishing around in my skirt and show some balls sometimes.