When Probabilities Fail Us
Note: This is not a bad beat story.
No sir, it's a commentary on perspective-taking in the face of adversity at the poker table. It is a shout of encouragement to all who have tasted the unpalatable kiss of doom on a river of sorrow. Enough melodramatic metaphors...
I came to a certain realization recently after suffering perhaps the most unlikely beat of my short poker career (THIS IS NOT A BAD BEAT STORY). Just to give you some context, I was playing 4-8 hold'em w/ kill in a casino in Calgary. My very first hand of the session, I step into a kill pot and find pocket Aces under the gun. I make it $16 to go and get four callers ("holy loosey goosey" I think to myself). The flop is K 6 4 rainbow, I bet and I get two callers. Next card is a 9 (no flush possible). I bet, both call. Last card is a 10. I bet, next guy raises, other guy calls, I fold thinking I'm beat by kings up. Well, you'll probably fall off your chair to find out that the raiser had QJ offsuit and hit runner, runner to make his straight. The other guy had AK and couldn't let it go. Now....uhmmm. Seriously. I know, I know. You're falling out of your chair right now. QJ? For real? This is not a drill. People seriously make these plays. Now, let's discuss.
First off, I can't really fault the last guy for his play (Top pair, top kicker) except for calling the raise on the river. However, the other guy (the guy who WON the $250 pot) made three atrocious plays. First, most would lay down QJo preflop for 2 bets. But maybe I missed that chapter in Super/System. Next, he called a bet with no pair and an overcard on the flop and no draw (or so one would think). I mean, my word -- the guy with AK who hit top pair on the flop didn't even raise me for crying out loud. This one must really see the glass half-full because no one I know is so optimistic that they see a straight in their future with those cards. Finally, the turn gave him a gut-shot straight draw and he called again. Let's see ... pot odds on the turn after I bet (assuming the guy behind him will call as well): $160 : $16 = 10:1. Odds of hitting one of four tens on the river: 11:1. Nope, still a bad play. Even with all that money in the pot. Implied odds? That's between him and David Sklansky (and possibly All_Aces). My head hurts.
Anyways, to make a long story short, I was about an 87% favourite preflop (against QJo and AKo) and I lost. I was still about an 86% favourite on the turn and I lost. And I was about a 100% dog on the river. And I lost. (THIS IS NOT A BAD BEAT STORY). So maybe after that hand I felt like pulling him aside and asking him how in the good god-damn he could call that down. Maybe I chastised him for every pot he won for the rest of the night (he hit two more runner-runner straights, by the way). Maybe I check-raised him once and he said, "Oooh, a check-raise!" And I replied like a total dick, "Yep, I'll check-raise your ass all night." Maybe my emotions got the best of me and I starting acting in ways I wouldn't normally act. That is, until perspective came into play. A little while later, a nice old man beside me (playing tighter than the skin on Cher's face I might add), capped the betting preflop. There was no doubt that he had pocket aces. There were several callers making for a huge pot. He bet the whole way and his aces held up. But curiously, I wasn't bitter and insanely jealous -- I was encouraged!!! The laws of probability do exist! Yea! Maybe I'll lose that big pot with pocket aces once out of every ten times. But nine times out of ten, it's the stupid, pathetic, idiotic, impulsive, moronic, glass-half-full, muther suckers who play QJo like it's the nuts who sweeten up that pot and make it worth my while to play poker. Without them, we'd all pretty much break even, wouldn't we? So go git 'em tiger. You call down with your non-existent straight draws and you pay us off. But never more than 13% of the time, please.
Note: I think this was basically, a bad beat story.
Phil.
No sir, it's a commentary on perspective-taking in the face of adversity at the poker table. It is a shout of encouragement to all who have tasted the unpalatable kiss of doom on a river of sorrow. Enough melodramatic metaphors...
I came to a certain realization recently after suffering perhaps the most unlikely beat of my short poker career (THIS IS NOT A BAD BEAT STORY). Just to give you some context, I was playing 4-8 hold'em w/ kill in a casino in Calgary. My very first hand of the session, I step into a kill pot and find pocket Aces under the gun. I make it $16 to go and get four callers ("holy loosey goosey" I think to myself). The flop is K 6 4 rainbow, I bet and I get two callers. Next card is a 9 (no flush possible). I bet, both call. Last card is a 10. I bet, next guy raises, other guy calls, I fold thinking I'm beat by kings up. Well, you'll probably fall off your chair to find out that the raiser had QJ offsuit and hit runner, runner to make his straight. The other guy had AK and couldn't let it go. Now....uhmmm. Seriously. I know, I know. You're falling out of your chair right now. QJ? For real? This is not a drill. People seriously make these plays. Now, let's discuss.
First off, I can't really fault the last guy for his play (Top pair, top kicker) except for calling the raise on the river. However, the other guy (the guy who WON the $250 pot) made three atrocious plays. First, most would lay down QJo preflop for 2 bets. But maybe I missed that chapter in Super/System. Next, he called a bet with no pair and an overcard on the flop and no draw (or so one would think). I mean, my word -- the guy with AK who hit top pair on the flop didn't even raise me for crying out loud. This one must really see the glass half-full because no one I know is so optimistic that they see a straight in their future with those cards. Finally, the turn gave him a gut-shot straight draw and he called again. Let's see ... pot odds on the turn after I bet (assuming the guy behind him will call as well): $160 : $16 = 10:1. Odds of hitting one of four tens on the river: 11:1. Nope, still a bad play. Even with all that money in the pot. Implied odds? That's between him and David Sklansky (and possibly All_Aces). My head hurts.
Anyways, to make a long story short, I was about an 87% favourite preflop (against QJo and AKo) and I lost. I was still about an 86% favourite on the turn and I lost. And I was about a 100% dog on the river. And I lost. (THIS IS NOT A BAD BEAT STORY). So maybe after that hand I felt like pulling him aside and asking him how in the good god-damn he could call that down. Maybe I chastised him for every pot he won for the rest of the night (he hit two more runner-runner straights, by the way). Maybe I check-raised him once and he said, "Oooh, a check-raise!" And I replied like a total dick, "Yep, I'll check-raise your ass all night." Maybe my emotions got the best of me and I starting acting in ways I wouldn't normally act. That is, until perspective came into play. A little while later, a nice old man beside me (playing tighter than the skin on Cher's face I might add), capped the betting preflop. There was no doubt that he had pocket aces. There were several callers making for a huge pot. He bet the whole way and his aces held up. But curiously, I wasn't bitter and insanely jealous -- I was encouraged!!! The laws of probability do exist! Yea! Maybe I'll lose that big pot with pocket aces once out of every ten times. But nine times out of ten, it's the stupid, pathetic, idiotic, impulsive, moronic, glass-half-full, muther suckers who play QJo like it's the nuts who sweeten up that pot and make it worth my while to play poker. Without them, we'd all pretty much break even, wouldn't we? So go git 'em tiger. You call down with your non-existent straight draws and you pay us off. But never more than 13% of the time, please.
Note: I think this was basically, a bad beat story.
Phil.
Comments
Wrong.
Wrong.
ScottyZ
Three things:
A. I'm here to learn -- let me know why my analysis is "wrong." Don't just write "wrong."
B. Did you finish reading the post? Read the last line.
C. Sense of humour?
A) You make it 16 to go UTG with 4 callers... you don't specify if the blinds come or not so I'm not sure what's in the pot, but at the most it's $16x4 plus the blinds ($6)... so that's $70. You bet out and get 2 callers for $24 more into the pot... You bet the turn... $16 more so now there's $110 in the pot so our anti-hero is getting at the most 6.875 to 1 for his gut-shot draw (7.875 to 1 if he's called by player left to act)
... his odds of catching a 10 on the river 4/46 which is 10.5 to 1 against. Yes it was a bad play.
I'm not touching
Personally... one can never have enough melodramatic metaphors!
side note: Probabilities never fail us... it is us who fail them!
yeah its stupid to be in that pot with QJo, yeah its stupid to call to the turn, but not going to the river after the turn would have been stupid as well... from what i can see his implied odds are huge. on the river you probably bet again, and he probably raised and maybe even the other player raised, it sounds like he won the the one bet needed to make that call justified.
sometimes you just have to roll with it. i read an article that suggested rolling a die, roll a die and see how many times a 6 comes up... thats more rare than losing with aces. (approx)
cheers!
Mickey, you're right, 7.875 to 1 pot odds (my math was wrong). And 10.5 to 1 for the gut-shot (I rounded). And yes, melodramatic metaphors make the world go round.
Alex, you're also right. I read my pokerstove incorrectly. 80% favourite preflop, 87% favourite on flop, and 86% on turn. Still 100% underdog on the river.
Finally, it wasn't so unlikely that I would be beat. It was the way I was beat, because 99% of the time the QJ would have been folded somewhere along the line by anyone else. Truthfully, I would have felt better being beat by trip kings on the river. But whatever. Habs rule.
Phil.
MickeyHoldem's (corrected) analysis does show that the call is incorrect in terms of pot odds (for example, in the case where all players went all-in on the turn), but it's still *possibly* correct in terms of impled odds. For example, if there is a strong likelihood of all 3 players (i.e. 2 opponents) somehow being in for 2 bets on the river. In that case, the implied odds (assuming for the sake of argument that "strong likelihood" means 100% chance) turn out to be 11.875 to 1.
Implied odds are generally difficult to nail down precisely since they depend on anticipating your opponents actions in future betting rounds.
Yes.
We are Borg. Humour is irrelevant.
When I posted originally, I was
1. basically on my way out the door
and
2. not particularly impressed by the fact that I was reading a bad beat story that claimed not to be one at the outset.
ScottyZ
But thanks for the reply ScottyZ. You're a stand-up guy.
Okay, perhaps humour doesn't come across too well on the internet. Just to clarify:
MY ORIGINAL POST WAS, FROM START TO FINISH, ONE GIANT BAD BEAT STORY.
I'll include a disclaimer next time and try to be less ironic in a feeble attempt to be funny.
Did anyone laugh?
ScottyZ