BIG Flips
2/5 NL $500 back
Table has a couple of LAGS that are calling/raising everything and hitting;
Typical preflop raise is $20 with 3/4 in;
EP open raises $20 -
You reraise to $50 in MP with AA and get 3 callers
Flop KT3 with two to a suit - your ace isnt suited to the two on the flop.
You bet $150 and a LAG pushes for $500 more ; your heads up
What do you do?
You bet $150 and a LAG pushes for $500 more and you have another caller so it is 3 way to the turn.
What do you?
In either scenario you are ahead, lets assume that QJs isnt one of the pushing hands but there is QJ or a flush draw. From the reads your not thinking TT/KK because the lags would push with one of those preflop and 33 is a small possibilty.
If you call in the first scenario against just the flush draw, your a 3/2 favorite
and 50/50 against both.
If you call an lose it is variance, but should you be calling this pot? as a 52/48 your edge is so small that does it even make sense?
Do you just accept the variance and call?
What is your play against lags that are going to SWING at the fences?
Table has a couple of LAGS that are calling/raising everything and hitting;
Typical preflop raise is $20 with 3/4 in;
EP open raises $20 -
You reraise to $50 in MP with AA and get 3 callers
Flop KT3 with two to a suit - your ace isnt suited to the two on the flop.
You bet $150 and a LAG pushes for $500 more ; your heads up
What do you do?
You bet $150 and a LAG pushes for $500 more and you have another caller so it is 3 way to the turn.
What do you?
In either scenario you are ahead, lets assume that QJs isnt one of the pushing hands but there is QJ or a flush draw. From the reads your not thinking TT/KK because the lags would push with one of those preflop and 33 is a small possibilty.
If you call in the first scenario against just the flush draw, your a 3/2 favorite
and 50/50 against both.
If you call an lose it is variance, but should you be calling this pot? as a 52/48 your edge is so small that does it even make sense?
Do you just accept the variance and call?
What is your play against lags that are going to SWING at the fences?
Comments
Absolutely.
Just see if you can beat them to the middle.
If you can't take advantage of +2% EV in a cash game then you're playing too high for your bankroll.
Really 4% advantage and you should get all your chips in?
What kind of bankroll do you have for $500 max 50k?
When you say $500 back and later $500 more, it makes it difficult to calculate. But based on $50 pre 4-ways and $150 on flop, the pot is $500 2-ways or $650 3-ways. Now if you started with $500 and invested $200, you're putting in another $300 to win either $800 or $1100, so getting around 2.5 or 4 to 1. If you actually have $500 after flop-bet, then it's $500 to win $1000 or $1500, so 2 or 3 to 1 odds. If you're a flip to win and getting better than 2 to 1 in all scenarios, it's a no-brainer to take it I think.
All this is based on the scenario presented, and "knowing" you are ahead and a flip to win the $$$.
Yes, 50K is a good estimate.
$50,000 would be a nice comfortable bankroll.
It would let you put no more than 1% of your roll on the table.
25 buyins would be ideal from a Kelly Criteria at 4% advantage.
so if you see a $500 bet at 4% advantage...
so $12,500 to make this bet.
Many players advocate half Kelly, So they would like $25,000
Your 50,000 is quarter Kelly at 4%, kinda conservative... not that that's a bad thing...
but here is my (now it seems not so) quick take...
against a single LAG opponent, in this situation, I put him on something that does not include KK or TT as mentioned (nor AK, AA, QQ and JJ), but could include anything like TP meh kicker, MP, set of threes, nut flush draw, some lame suited connector flush draw, some kind of middle pair putting you on a hand you would lay down, depending on history and your image. (if the T3 was the suited part, maybe he has TP with a flush draw? i didn't analyze that one but it would be played strongly of course and you would be in trouble. if KT, K3s or T3s is in his range, lookout!)
so here's the quick pokerstove on that range:
Board: Kh Th 3d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.694% 73.65% 00.04% 67810 40.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 26.306% 26.26% 00.04% 24179 40.50 { 99-33, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, QTs+, Qh9h, Qh8h, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, QTo }
you have a huge advantage. call without hesitation.
against two opponents playing similar ranges:
Board: Kh Th 3d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.369% 56.29% 00.08% 3920768 5769.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 21.815% 21.63% 00.19% 1506441 13161.50 { 99-33, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, QTs+, Qh9h, Qh8h, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, QTo }
Hand 2: 21.815% 21.63% 00.19% 1506441 13161.50 { 99-33, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, QTs+, Qh9h, Qh8h, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, QTo }
again a significant advantage plus you are getting more than 2-1 on your money. as alluded to earlier, if you can't get the chips in here, you should play at a level where you would be comfortable getting them in.
the problem with pokerstove is you can't assign weights to different components of his range. like he is 40% on a nut flush draw, 20% on another flush draw, 25% OESD, 5% set of threes and 10% pure bluff. we could do those cases separately and combine them to do this but that is a job better left to buddy.
as for bankroll for 500 max, i would put you at more than 4% advantage against this crowd. 10k would be a bit light, 20k (40 buy-ins) would be ok in most cases if it is a dedicated bankroll and can be supplemented from other sources in dire cases. 50k would indeed be sweeeeeeeet (keep 40k in some kind of GIC or something). reef's calcs are awesome!
getting back to other considerations for the hand, raise more PF. like at least 70. you have to know you are getting at least a couple callers for 50. i prefer to be heads up (esp with that board but who knew that was coming). have a plan for the flop. with less than 4x the pot in your stack, i would prefer to push rather than give 2 possible draws the (implied) odds to chase or the opportunity to put you to a difficult decision. *if* there was 200+ in the pot and you only had 450 back, it would be pretty easy to get the chips in with an overpair here. i'm happy to add 30+% to my stack without a confrontation here.
Exactly the dead money is the factor. If you can't take even the smallest edge in a cash game you are playing too high.
Pkrfce9 4 prez! Glad you're posting again.
I cosign the call, but could go either way on the suggestion of a larger pf raise. The more I think about it- the more I like Redington's 2.5x raise for him it suits his mild, but relentlessly aggressive style. And is another reason he must call HU IMO, my guess is that EP's range for him is pretty huge and on the flop a c/r feels like a long term profitable play v. Tyson- with a lot of reasonable (but in this instance; losing) hands.
The big question here is in NL should you take wild variance calls.
Hence the two scenarios one big favorite one a small one. In each instance i have been right about the reads, but one where it was vs a set.
I have taken some wild swings in the BR lately and they have been from these situations. It is not nice getting that little chunk in the back of your throat of morning goodness when your 3-1 fav loses...for the third or fourth time.
I havent done the calculations, but based on what I have read, over the long run I will make up these loses (NL_stacks vs just big bets IN L).
thanks
As for bankroll for a typical live 2/5 500max game I would recommend a minimum 25 buy-ins and adjust upwards depending on your playing style and the style of the game...assuming you are talking about a pro/nonrepletishing roll. Personally, I want 20k for an aggressive 2/5 game for the invariable variance that NL brings.