Hey! A Poker discussion!
Hey all...
Probably get rocked on this one, but let's see what everyone thinks.
PART ONE:
PokerStars Game #13636921775: Tournament #69153024, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/12/03 - 22:33:01 (ET)
Table '69153024 9' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: betojch (2368 in chips)
Seat 2: GetMurked (1425 in chips)
Seat 3: gbbcoach (1315 in chips)
Seat 4: vernmort (3649 in chips)
Seat 5: trickydick61 (8776 in chips)
Seat 6: Draccir (3040 in chips)
Seat 7: DrTyore (3964 in chips)
Seat 9: cariver (800 in chips)
cariver: posts small blind 75
betojch: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DrTyore [Kd Ad]
GetMurked: raises 300 to 450
gbbcoach: folds
vernmort: raises 1200 to 1650
trickydick61: folds
Draccir: folds
DrTyore: ---> ????
Mark
Probably get rocked on this one, but let's see what everyone thinks.
PART ONE:
PokerStars Game #13636921775: Tournament #69153024, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/12/03 - 22:33:01 (ET)
Table '69153024 9' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: betojch (2368 in chips)
Seat 2: GetMurked (1425 in chips)
Seat 3: gbbcoach (1315 in chips)
Seat 4: vernmort (3649 in chips)
Seat 5: trickydick61 (8776 in chips)
Seat 6: Draccir (3040 in chips)
Seat 7: DrTyore (3964 in chips)
Seat 9: cariver (800 in chips)
cariver: posts small blind 75
betojch: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DrTyore [Kd Ad]
GetMurked: raises 300 to 450
gbbcoach: folds
vernmort: raises 1200 to 1650
trickydick61: folds
Draccir: folds
DrTyore: ---> ????
Mark
Comments
IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE RESULTS ARE!!!!!
See page 2 for the correct answer donkeys
Mark
Not knowing anything else,
Table image of you and opponents
I assume still a while to the $$
You have a raise and a reraise infront of you and are probably behind.
Do you want / need to race here?
I say fold here (again not knowing anything else about the table and tourney) but seeing there is a pt 2, you pushed didn't you and got called by a PP
So you are probably behind with 2 suited overs going in.
(Without knowing the table image of any of these people)
If the big reraiser has AA, or KK you've lost 2 outs and that really changes what you can do post flop.
Now that I'm looking at this, I'd say you'll get a better spot a little later on, get out of the way here and fold
The hand likely results in the first raiser folding and you leaving the hand... (you may use KGB's voice here if that does something for you...)... unsatisfied.
stp
Ok, so you probably pushed and sucked out...than what
Worst case scenario you are almost completely dominated by AA/KK.
Most likely scenario is that you are racing against the re-shove, in which case it is still your stack. If the original raiser has any 2 live cards at this point youre only 40% (ish) for the main, and pretty much break even on the side.
I pick a better spot, I hate calling off my stack in a multi-way pot with A-high.
Why is there a part 2? This is clearly a push or fold scenario. Did you flat the reraise, then miss the flop? Eeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
/g2
you can argue until you're blue in the face on this hand.
nice stack size = fold (no need to flip)
$4.40 = donks, certainly ahead enough to justify the shove.
so either put up all your info on re-raise-asaurus, or randomly choose your own adventure.(based on whichever you are most comfortable with)
I break my mouse clicking 'all in' so hard and verbal "See you in hell $4.40"
1. Push and get everyone's money in the pot. 30%
2. Push, 1st guy calls and 2nd dude folds. 20%
3. Push, 1st guy folds and 2nd dude calls. 40%
4. Push both fold 10%
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
2,767,552,326 games 5.766 secs 479,977,857 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.970% 26.05% 06.92% 720927270 191533578.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 32.576% 29.33% 03.25% 811637961 89921616.50 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 34.454% 29.12% 05.33% 805922739 147609161.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
In this case, you are getting basically even money, if the first dude moves in.
The other thing that can happen is the first dude folds, leaving 675 in dead money in the pot.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
66,779,856 games 0.016 secs 4,173,741,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.528% 41.44% 11.09% 27671499 7406760.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 47.472% 36.38% 11.09% 24294837 7406760.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
In this case 675 in dead money in the pot and a slight edge.
Or 1875 in dead money if 2nd guy folds and basically the same edge (and automatically win a $225 side pot).
1. Push and get everyone's money in the pot. 30% Pot 8948 Equity 2685 *33% = 886 *wrong, corrected below
2. Push, 1st guy calls and 2nd dude folds. 20% Pot 4725 Equity 945 * 52.5% + 225 = 721
3. Push, 1st guy folds and 2nd dude calls. 40% Pot 7973 Equity 3190 * 52.5% = 1675
4. Push both fold 10% Pot 2325 Equity 233
Total Equity = 3515
Ok still not finished but this is taking a while. Have to go look at my Harrington. Will get back to it later.
But Kristy these $4.40 donks are clearly cleaver than both you and I. The first raiser has 8's and 2nd raiser has JJ since these donks would never re raise AA or KK (they might shove it tho instead of a normal raise). Being a 4.40 i'm all in here and know I'll get called by a hand I'm racing or I"m ahead (AQs AJs) 85% of the time. I think 10% you get called by AK (either offsuit or suited). I PUUUUUSSSSSHHHHHHH in a $4.40.
So mark you hit both your A and K on the flop he hit his J's for a set and you kissed your ass good bye?
I believe I'm going to paraphrase a great poker player here
"The proper play is to drool on yourself and retardely fold"
In other words.... 100% push overtop of these fucknuts... and part 2 is now filled in.
If you're stupidly curious.. the rest of the hand went (highlight):
DrTyore pushes all in
BB Re-pushes all in
UTG calls all in
MP folds his AJo
DrTyore doesn't win when BB wakes up with KK and UTG had QQ - queen flops
Mark
Nice post Moose.
Are you calling the clock on me? I need Blondefish and his slide rule.
That is a negative on the clock sir.
Huh?
Won't Dan say,
"Equity of folding 3964,
Equity of pushing 3515
Fold"
But this line was wrong because I didn't create a side pot
1. Push and get everyone's money in the pot. 30% Pot 8948 Equity 2685 *33% = 886
So Main is 4500 * 33% to win
Side is 4448 * 52.5% to win
Corrected Equity is 1146
Total Equity is = 3775
Cost is (30% * 3964 + 20% * 1425 + 40% * 3964) = 1190 + 285 + 1586
= 3061
EV 3775-3061 = 714
You run bad Mark.
In this hand it doesn't cost him 3964 everytime.
Ahhh yes of course... Good analysis.
I might downgrade the ev a little say 1%, to account for the blinds waking up with AA or KK and spoiling you fun.
Here the raiser is dancing on the line of pretty much pot committing himself with his raise....
If he had bet smaller, say 900 then I'd consider having more fold equity here.
If he had bet more say, 2000 then I'd consider we have zero fold equity against him since he's pot committed at this point and will only fold a stone cold bluff.
Moose has the raiser folding 30% of the time which may be a little too high?
Comments.
Reads might be nice, but I assume we have nothing here?
Here's my take:
We have an M of ~18ish (I eyeballed this).
If we're playing, we're pushing. In terms of fold equity, I think we have very little. UTG committed a third of his stack already and if he's raising UTG, I find very few hands that are going to be laying down here. The reraiser will be getting something like 2:1 on our push, so I'm not 100% we can get rid of him either (and that's assuming UTG folds which is very unlikely).
Most likely we'll be facing 2 callers if we push. The fact that one of them raised small UTG for 1/3 his stack, and another player reraised this player doesn't bode that well in terms of potential monsters (this is all based under the assumption of zero reads).
Ironically, if the MP player is deeper (and so are we), I almost like pushing better, since:
a) A bigger stack might be trying to ISO the short stack with a lesser hand.
b) A bigger stack might be willing to let go of some middling pair like 77-JJ if he's deeper.
Of course we're risking more as well...
As is, I lean towards a fold.
(see post #2)
I guess its time to check you into the Smackdown hotel.
Btw moose...nice detailed analysis...we'll miss this when you go back to work in Jan
True dat.
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