$100NL FR - AA against 2 regulars
Stats shown at preflop action. What do you do?
POKERSTARS GAME #13378180871: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/11/21 - 12:45:46 (ET)
Table 'Havnia' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Walther87 ($67.15 in chips)
Seat 2: tstone19 ($83.35 in chips)
Seat 3: ESTPatrick ($165.40 in chips)
Seat 4: dynamow ($106.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Orignac ($106.80 in chips)
Seat 6: amazinmets73 ($92.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero ($98 in chips)
Seat 8: anarchoi ($106.10 in chips)
Seat 9: Roelof22 ($95.60 in chips)
Roelof22: posts small blind $0.50
Walther87: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kelly_kabob [Ac As]
tstone19: folds
ESTPatrick: raises $2 to $3 (18/11 – 98 hands)
dynamow: folds
Orignac: raises $8 to $11 (8/2 – 790 hands)
amazinmets73: folds
Hero: raises $87 to $98 and is all-in and hopes KK will call? I’m pretty much turning my cards over at this point.
POKERSTARS GAME #13378180871: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/11/21 - 12:45:46 (ET)
Table 'Havnia' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Walther87 ($67.15 in chips)
Seat 2: tstone19 ($83.35 in chips)
Seat 3: ESTPatrick ($165.40 in chips)
Seat 4: dynamow ($106.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Orignac ($106.80 in chips)
Seat 6: amazinmets73 ($92.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero ($98 in chips)
Seat 8: anarchoi ($106.10 in chips)
Seat 9: Roelof22 ($95.60 in chips)
Roelof22: posts small blind $0.50
Walther87: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kelly_kabob [Ac As]
tstone19: folds
ESTPatrick: raises $2 to $3 (18/11 – 98 hands)
dynamow: folds
Orignac: raises $8 to $11 (8/2 – 790 hands)
amazinmets73: folds
Hero: raises $87 to $98 and is all-in and hopes KK will call? I’m pretty much turning my cards over at this point.
Comments
I definately don't do that.
You have both a monster and position. LOL at him being 8/2 over almost 1000 hands but it really narrows his range here. Probably AK or JJ+ maybe even QQ+.
There are about a million flops where you can get his stack from him if he has an overpair to the board or flops TPTK while holding AK.
Why would you play this hand so scared?
You probably chase the original raiser out of the pot and maybe take the pot right there.
On the flop I shove the rest in no matter what.
If one of the 2 players called your reraise and hit c'est la vie. He probably is calling your all in anyways with the same result as the PF shove.
/g2
wow, somebody agrees with my logic. Maybe I am getting the hang of this cash game thing afterall. Unlikely
/g2
Even if he only calls off the rest when he hits a set. It is well worth the trade when effective stacks are 100BB.
You raise to $40 and he calls $29 more origional raiser folds (for simplicity sake). Pot is ($84.50)
He hits 1 in 8
so seven times you make $84.50 X 7 = $591.50
and once you stack off $100
This is the definintion of +EV
Is calling his reraise leading him to believe I have a smaller pair an option? Of course, this opens the door for the original raiser to come along too.
I put him on a range ^^^
Calling is definatley better than shoving. Especially when the 8/2 nit is on such a tight range of hands.
You're assuming he calls every time.
Also I would only be making $29x7 more than getting a fold preflop.
Most likely when you reraise, he's probably coming over the top given his stats.
What are your stats?
The push could look like a scared money move with QQ trying to chase the guys out. You won't get a call from someone bluffing (not likely the case here!) but could well be called by QQ and KK.
I don't mind the push but I would favour a raise to 25-35. Either way, they aren't getting proper odds to call plus there's a good chance KK re-re-re-raises and then you can push.
So how did you spend that 15.50? Beowulf 3D Imax?
I am not assuming that he calls everytime, was just responding to G2's post.
You are correct about the 29X7.
It equals $203 vs. the $100 that he wins when he hits a set and you stack off this is assuming that he hits or folds everytime.
More likely you will see a flop that he will stack off to. If his range is AK and QQ+ the only flops where you will get no more out of him is one where he whiffs his AK or any flop with an A when he holds QQ or KK. This is so unlikely when you already hold 2 Aces and on any Jack high or less flop he is not folding to your bet with the overpair.
Remember that your bets should be smaller post flop in a 3 or 4 bet pot so if you go to $35 and get a fold from the first raiser and a call from the 8/2 nit it is reasonable to bet $30 at the flop if he checks to you and it is also very likely that he will bet the hand for you.
Be happy to play from position post flop with this guy. If he is 8/2 over 1000 hands and I guarantee you that he has 0 post flop skills.
Re-raising, but not all-in, is probably the best EV-maximizing play. You give up equity by going all-in at 9 times the re-raise since you are unlikely to get called. Flat calling is dangerous, with several players left that can call and you want to be heads up when you have a big pair. You WANT to be called by an inferior hand as long as you have bet enough not to give him the proper odds to call. I thought -ev and BBC Z had exorcized your results-oriented thinking.
7 times you make $84? what if he goes all-in on the flop? this 7x assumes you take down the pot on the flop when he misses his trips, etc. But what if he raises with garbage. Can you call with only top pair? How do you know he doesn't have you beat? If I go all-in pre-flop and assume I get one caller:
He hits 1 in 8
so seven times you make $200 X 7 = $1,400
and once you stack off $100
I would think this is a more +ev move with a caller.
If you raise to 45, guy has to call 34 to possibly win a pot of what? ~210? (100+100+whatever else is in the pot, im too lazy). 210/34 is 6.2:1, so the guy preflop is not getting the right odds to spike a set, so its +EV for you in the long run.
^^ For post above, if youre getting it all in preflop, its no longer 8:1, as the opp is now seeing all 5 cards, so youre now just 4.5:1. I think?
personally, I like both plays, either raising to 45, or going all in. Its the good ole poker 'it depends'.
If you raise to $35 and the nit calls you. Then you are going all the way with the hand. Don't try and make any Phil Helmuth type laydowns. You can go to the matt with your other $65 bucks because he doesn't have the implied odds to make the pre-flop call with whatever he is holding.
Your math doesn't really work here because you can only estimate how often he will call your shove in this spot. This 8/2 guy will likely call if you make it $35 to go with the KK, QQ, AK, or even possibly AA that we all know he is holding. But he may also lay everyone of those hands down when you 4 bet - jam your stack in the middle (except for the unlikely AA obviously).
When you push in this spot and don't get a call you have turned a great $$$ making opportunity into a small safe gain. You may get a call but not often enought to make this play the most profitable one.
BlondeFish. 8/2 is a pokertracker stat. It means that this nit we are playing against only voluntarily puts money in the pot pre-flop 8% of the time and only raises 2% of the time (money put in from the blinds doesn't count unless he calls a raise out of BB or completes out of SB). Quimby has compiled these stats over almost 1000 hands against this guy.
Now that you know that. What is your range for this guy?
Quimby. How often do you see guys with stats like this in FR? That is so insane. His range is so narrow pre-flop that it makes it ridiculously easy to play post-flop against him. Is he a winner in your database?
If you are going all the way with this hand, why not go all-in pre-flop? My assumption is that this re-raiser is not going anywhere and will likely call with the top 5 hands+. Based on what I have seen at the table, not many players will walk away from the hand when they have made a 5xBB raise and get re-raised. Maybe online is different. My math may be off (as usual) but I know I will get corrected by Blondefish. By raising to $35, you might get two callers now and then your AA has one more hand to worry about.
8/2 is just about as tight as you can get although I have seen 3/2 and 10/0 type players though. He is -$223 in his 790 hands.
I figured an 8/2 guy who 3bets preflop wouldn't be able to fold preflop. But he did. So did original raiser.
JAH, purchase PNL by Mehta et al. Absorb it. It will help you at this stage of your development.
Thanks, haven't heard of that one.
x/y = v$pip/pfr
voluntary $ put in pot
preflop raise %
so the 8/2 guy is a nit, tight rock, call it what you want but if he's raising he's got a hand.