Very late in MTT, pf vs. Big stack
Horrific beat. Likely cost me a couple grand or more, so it's still bothering me but I won't bore you with the details.
Situation is: We're way past the bubble. Villian is big stack I'm third. There is no other way I can play this pf correct? Villan is new to the table ep raise, large stacks behind, I don't shove right?
*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #13011305233: Tournament #65238021, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (600/1200) - 2007/11/03 - 08:00:57 (ET)
Table '65238021 24' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pzyclone (42395 in chips)
Seat 2: donkey (62696 in chips)
Seat 3: canuck98 (11440 in chips)
Seat 4: kokosinjski1 (48592 in chips)
Seat 5: FLUKNER (23329 in chips)
Seat 6: bras11 (66886 in chips)
Seat 7: TJMBeav (121904 in chips)
Seat 8: Akala16 (76054 in chips)
Seat 9: sslick_rrick (16380 in chips)
pzyclone: posts the ante 125
donkey: posts the ante 125
canuck98: posts the ante 125
kokosinjski1: posts the ante 125
FLUKNER: posts the ante 125
bras11: posts the ante 125
TJMBeav: posts the ante 125
Akala16: posts the ante 125
sslick_rrick: posts the ante 125
donkey: posts small blind 600
canuck98: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Akala16 [Jh Jc]
kokosinjski1: folds
FLUKNER: calls 1200
bras11: calls 1200
TJMBeav: raises 9600 to 10800
Akala16: calls 10800
sslick_rrick: folds
pzyclone: folds
donkey: folds
canuck98: folds
FLUKNER: folds
bras11: folds
Situation is: We're way past the bubble. Villian is big stack I'm third. There is no other way I can play this pf correct? Villan is new to the table ep raise, large stacks behind, I don't shove right?
*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #13011305233: Tournament #65238021, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (600/1200) - 2007/11/03 - 08:00:57 (ET)
Table '65238021 24' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pzyclone (42395 in chips)
Seat 2: donkey (62696 in chips)
Seat 3: canuck98 (11440 in chips)
Seat 4: kokosinjski1 (48592 in chips)
Seat 5: FLUKNER (23329 in chips)
Seat 6: bras11 (66886 in chips)
Seat 7: TJMBeav (121904 in chips)
Seat 8: Akala16 (76054 in chips)
Seat 9: sslick_rrick (16380 in chips)
pzyclone: posts the ante 125
donkey: posts the ante 125
canuck98: posts the ante 125
kokosinjski1: posts the ante 125
FLUKNER: posts the ante 125
bras11: posts the ante 125
TJMBeav: posts the ante 125
Akala16: posts the ante 125
sslick_rrick: posts the ante 125
donkey: posts small blind 600
canuck98: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Akala16 [Jh Jc]
kokosinjski1: folds
FLUKNER: calls 1200
bras11: calls 1200
TJMBeav: raises 9600 to 10800
Akala16: calls 10800
sslick_rrick: folds
pzyclone: folds
donkey: folds
canuck98: folds
FLUKNER: folds
bras11: folds
Comments
If I push with a hand against a bigger stack, and I am still Green MZoned, I want the situation to be that the flop HAS to help him, not you. Here, it's hard to tell what spot you are in by just calling.
Ty. I don't like raising and folding here but I guess I didn't even consider just tossing the jacks. Do others think folding jj here is reasonable?
Yes. JJ here is a tough hand to play against an unknown player with that stack. You don't have to win every pot with decent hands, sometimes you gotta pick your spots.
Folding the JJ would seem weak to me in general - esp. to the big stack, who, maybe raising with a v.wide range since he is the leader of the table.
However, this thread brings up a good point. How do you deal properly with a v.strange massive raise pre.flop? If he made it 3x u call obv. but he went to 10K ! If you re-raise to 20K - then you will fold if he shoves? If he flat calls and overs come then what? I guess you still have enough behind to still play.
I guess raising would be my final decision now that I thought about it. If you run around folding JJ to a big stack that can't be good in the long run. Also, in general, who the heck would raise THAT much with AA or KK? Prob not many ppl - so I think folding here would be wrong.
1- you don't have any read on the guy and from early position a big raise is justified for a big pair, hoping to attract ONE single caller only.
2- playing this hand is surely going to jeopardize your whole stack - if you were orange or red mzoned, its an immediate push.
3- as a green mzoned player, you do NOT need to be rolling it around with a bigger stack - with green mzone stack, you need the NUTS or very strong hand to risk your stack here.
4- you cannot improve your read on him by calling, so a reraise is a strong move here, but again... leave yourself an escape plan or get out right from the start.
When I am stuck in a spot like this I ask myself what Hellmuth or Harrington would do and I see them both getting away from this hand with a fold or reraise then folding to a shove.
In this spot, as with many in MTTs, its rarely your hand strength that is the final determination in making a decision. This is a GCI hand and that alone should make you think twice about entering this pot.
I am a :fish:online, but here is my 2¢ anyway on this online hand. While this is a "Game Critical Intersect" (GCI) hand, my read on the villain's overbet is that he is using his leading stack to steal the blinds. TJMBeav is basically putting the BB canuck98 all-in by putting in a raise of 9* the BB. I am much less worried about the villain having AA-QQ than the six players acting behind us, including UTG+1 FLUKNER who limped in despite having an M of less than 8.
IMHO, folding is the worst option. Even in the unlikely case that the biggest stack would only raise with the top 10% of hands, JJ would still win 59.2% of the time against that tight range. The only thing stopping me from reraising all-in are the other 6 players behind me. I would min-raise to 20,400, hoping to isolate TJMBeav. Only if there is an all-in reraise from the three 62K+ stacks (SB 'donkey', EP limper bras11, or TJMBeav) would I then seriously consider folding.
I like that advice. When I am faced with a difficult decision, I try to ask myself what a good player in that situation would do. Chris Ferguson and Andy Bloch are the best pre-flop players in the world, and I am willing to bet that neither would fold in this pre-flop situation. I am already in the money; my goal is to maximize my EV and try to win the tournament, not just avoid the big stack and move up the money ladder.
My guess is that Whitehorse and TJMBeav ended up all-in after the flop, then TJMBeav got a suck-out.
Warning: bad beat below..
*** FLOP *** [Js 3s 2d]
TJMBeav: bets 110979 and is all-in
Akala16: calls 65129 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Js 3s 2d] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [Js 3s 2d 2c] [4d]
bras11 said, "WOW"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TJMBeav: shows [2h 2s] (four of a kind, Deuces)
Akala16: shows [Jh Jc] (a full house, Jacks full of Deuces)
TJMBeav collected 157183 from pot
I don't think a min-raise, or a raise to 20000ish like mentioned accomplishes anything. What do you find out if you raise to that amount? He is certainly calling with any pair, AJ+, or some maybe even wider range getting 3 to 1. Either make a real-raise and be wiling to fold to a push, or simply fold in this situation. You don't need to take a hand to war with this. I don't think folding here is a weak play. You can use your stack to exploit many other holes in upcoming hands with other players.
Again, what does a min-raise here accomplish? So what if he only raises with the top 10% hands? If an overcard comes, you will have a hard-time calling a bet with possibly your tourney life at stake
Min-raising is an +EV play. In the unlikely case that donkey or bras11 has AA-QQ and re-raises all-in, you can fold and still have an above-average stack of 54K. In the much more likely case that it will be folded to TJMBeav, you have some fold equity if he has a mediocre holding and does not want to play OOP against the 2nd biggest stack in the table. If he calls, I will gladly go to war when I have all three weapons of cards, position and chips; I have the 4th best possible hand heads-up, I get to act last, and I have the chips to hurt him the most.
It comes down to your read of the villain. If you know that he has been playing super-tight and would only raise with AA-QQ & AK, then folding JJ would be the correct EV-maximizing play. If however, you correctly read that the big stack's overbet indicates a much wider range of hands, including 22-TT, AT & lower, then it is +EV for you to at least call. Re-raising with JJ would probably have an even higher expectation. Folding with an EV of 0 is the worst option.
As David Sklansky et al states, if either calling or raising has a positive expectation, you should NOT FOLD. I want to maximize my long-term winnings, so I will choose the plays that I believe maximize my expectation.
For sure, I'd at least call here. Any kind of raise would make it very hard to get away from the hand, given the stack size.
Brutal beat. Shit happens. I can't say I fault your play here. Neither one of you plays this any different once you see the flop. In hindsight, pushing pre might win the hand but I'm not sure this is clear cut, either.
Btw..he had no read on villain..not that it really changes what I'm trying to say with the min-raise.
I'm not disagreeing with you, but what will a min-raise accomplish in this situation? Do you narrow the villain's range? Not really. If villain flat calls and board comes with 1/2/3 overcards, and he leads out, do you call? Do you c-bet when an overcard comes on the flop.
Well, -ev alluded to what I was going to say...he probably said it better.
Having read Sklansky's clarification of his often misapplied recommendation, my understanding is that in THEORY, IF you are the BEST player in the whole tournament, then you can pass up big-bet coin flips EARLY in the tournament. When pressed for how big that edge should be, I think he estimated that any edge higher than 53% should NOT be passed up. So if you have raised with JJ or QQ while in-the-money and Phil Ivey re-raises all-in but flashes his AK by mistake, Sklansky will recommend that you maximize your expectation by making the call instead of folding.
Since you are already in the money, playing JJ has positive expectation and you should at least call (and probably raise). Folding has the lowest expectation. The EV for calling turned out to be:
EV = -10,800 * 18.1% + 16,125 * 81.9%
= +11,252
Whitehorse's decision to call has a high EV and is much better than folding.
My concern in this case is how you will play this post-flop, when you have a very healthy stack, with a tricky hand to play, and playing against an unknown player, and also someone (and the only one) that can eliminate you from the tournament.
What are the odds of someone calling my push here? Hard to say but with the current situation, I'd have to say 30-50%? If called, I expect you are at best a coin flip. So, yes it is +EV but with high variance.
With no reads, definitely tough to play post-flop unless you flop a set. So most likely, calling or min-raising means you've burned your chips.
After thinking some more, I probably push here but expect to be out at least 30% of the time. I can't see myself folding here. Would a pro fold here? I'm trying to see how one could.
As anybody who has tried to calculate EV knows, it can be very complicated, but here is one reasonable approximation.
EV = 1.4% * (EV of everybody folding except 'donkey' with AA-QQ) + 98.6% * (EV against TJMBeav whose raising range was the top 20% of hands but will only call an all-in if his hand is in the top 10%)
= 1.4% * [(-62,571 chips for donkey's all-in) * (81.5% chance of JJ losing to overpair) + 78,696 pot * (19.5% chance of JJ winning)] + 98.6% * [(50% chance of TJMBeav folding) * 16,125 pot + (50% chance of TJMBeav having a Top 10% hand and calling) * [(-75,929 all-in * 40.8% chance of JJ losing to top 10% of hands) + (81,254 * 59.2% chance of JJ winning)]
= 0.014 * (-50,995.365 + 15,345.72) + 0.986 * [8,062.5 + 0.5 * (-30,979.032 + 48,102.368 )]
= -499.095 + 16,391.430
= +15,892.
Raising all-in probably maximizes your expectation and is the best play.
1. Raise all-in. Not "8.4 on the Horrid scale"
2. Any other raise has a higher EV than calling.
3. Calling is probably +EV.
4. Folding is the worst option with an EV of 0.
With this player, especially being down river, you are going to get so many better opportunites and have a CLEAR advantage.
Are you Green MZoned? Then stay Green MZoned! I keep thinking about Shippedtpot on Party Poker last year when he won the Friday Special, then two days later won the Sunday Million. And how about Carlos Mortenson who wins TWO Sunday Stars tourneys back to back? I just don't think that players like this who win that big run straight ahead into hands like this. They avoid it, or at least minmize thier losses and survive another level.
I appreciate the effort to quantify the EV here. I think a few of the assumptions could be questioned, however. I expect if someone tried to put a person in this position pushing on a hand, they would concluded something like QQ, AK or worse.
I expect you would be called by QQ+, AK sooooted or not and possibly 10-JJ but I suppose we could argue about that, too. Your push has to get through 7 people, 4 of whom have yet to act and 3 who have shown some strength.
With the 4 who have not yet acted, I would expect your chances of one of the hands in the range I quoted to be around 12%. With the 3 who have already shown some strength, I expect the quality of their hands to be better than these unknown hands (no reads, so assuming they are not total donkeys), so your chances of getting called by one of them is likely a bit higher. Let's say you have a 25% chance of being called by at least 1 opponent where your hand is < 50% to win.
I haven't bothered to plug all these values in to calculate an EV (feel free!)but I expect it would result in a number lower than yours. In my mind, it is still positive, albeit marginal and this is why the qualitative factors are more important here.
I have to admit, I would have put the original raiser on a better hand so I doubt he would call a push here. Looks like his raise was more of an attempt to bully the table and then his push seems like a "horrid" -ev move.