'The art of the laydown' redux.

Unknown

Interesting situation in the Stars $10+1 rebuy tournament tonight. This hand came up shortly after the rebuy period had ended, and here's what I know of my opponent: he took 1st place in one of these last week (a railbird happened by and started ooo-ing and ahhh-ing in his general direction). I hadn't seen him show down a lot of hands. He seemed to be fairly aggressive, and I thought he was tricky as well. Not so much because of any hands I'd actually seen him play, but because you have to be at least a little tricky to win one of these things.

Blah blah blah. Here's the hand:

PokerStars Game #710268506: Tournament #2713395, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2004/09/21 - 23:27:38 (ET)
Table '2713395 14' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: all aces (7712 in chips)
Seat 2: bizwiz (7614 in chips)
Seat 3: agrilus (10065 in chips)
Seat 5: jabberwocky (13416 in chips)
Seat 6: Kaust (7075 in chips)
Seat 7: crazyjerry (2975 in chips)
Seat 8: bonk2004 (5110 in chips)
Seat 9: d9090 (6673 in chips)
agrilus: posts small blind 75
jabberwocky: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [9h Ah]
Kaust: folds
zzztop is connected
crazyjerry: calls 150
bonk2004: folds
d9090: folds
all aces: calls 150
bizwiz: calls 150
agrilus: calls 75
jabberwocky: checks
*** FLOP *** [Th 8c 7c]
agrilus: checks
jabberwocky: checks
crazyjerry: checks
all aces: bets 450
bizwiz: raises 450 to 900
agrilus: folds
jabberwocky: folds
crazyjerry: folds
all aces: calls 450

I think this call was a fairly easy one... the pot was about 2K.

*** TURN *** [Th 8c 7c] [Ad]
all aces: checks
bizwiz: bets 6564 and is all-in

We started the hand with almost identical stacks. Is this yet another easy laydown? Tough laydown? Not a laydown at all?

Any comments appreciated.

Regards,
all_aces

NurseHoliday

This hand is similar to the one I posted last week - I had A 7 and saw a flop of 6, 8, 9 with 2 suited (not my suit). As I recall, with 2 players moving all-in, I was roundly criticized for even questioning the decision - a CLEAR FOLD I was told. (I did not pair my Ace on the turn however).
So, you have only 1 opponent, you have top pair with mediocre kicker, an open ended straight draw but 2 of your outs might make a club flush for the opponent....1 card to come. I muck it.

If you call, what could you reasonably expect your opponent to turn over that would make you happy? What would sicken you? Is it worth the risk? Would your opponent risk all his chips with a less-than-stellar hand? (quite possibly - but how bad do you want to know?)
You may well be ahead, but I think this is a case of first-mover advantage - he put his chips in and put you to the decision. Had you moved in instead of checking, he would have faced the same dilemma.

After looking at it, I'm not sure he wants a call, but I don't think u want to find out either...muck it and wait for a better time to face him down.

Unknown

I was roundly criticized for even questioning the decision - a CLEAR FOLD I was told.

Uh oh. I have a feeling I'm going to get a lot of 'I can't believe you even have to ask' responses...

(I did not pair my Ace on the turn however).

Hopefully this difference will make for some 'less unanimous' replies.

If you call, what could you reasonably expect your opponent to turn over that would make you happy? What would sicken you? Is it worth the risk? Would your opponent risk all his chips with a less-than-stellar hand? (quite possibly - but how bad do you want to know?)

50% of me was expecting to see AT, and 55% of me was expecting to see a semi-bluff, with him on a draw. (Somebody please check my math on that... I have a feeling I'm Against All Odds.) I won't say--yet--whether or not I actually found out what he had.

Had you moved in instead of checking, he would have faced the same dilemma.

This is a very good point. I immediately regretted my decision to check the turn, and even moreso when he moved in.

Regards,
all_aces

SirWatts

This just doesnt seem like a spot where he would want to mess around with a bluff. My guess is he flopped 2 pair, or caught 2 pair with that ace and he wants you off that straight draw right now. The worse case is that he flopped a set or maybe, though far more unlikely, the straight and he is hoping that ace helped you and he gets a call. It just seems too early in the tournament for him to make a huge bluff here and too early for you to risk your entire nicely built up stack. On the other hand he might have just put you on a straight draw and is trying to bluff you off, but it just seems too risky to call him. Reminds me of Matusow getting beat by Raymer in the WSOP in that big hand. Even when Matusow read him as on a bluff I can't understand why he would want to call him with such a mediocre hand.

ScottyZ

50% of me was expecting to see AT, and 55% of me was expecting to see a semi-bluff, with him on a draw.

This is hand is hardly worth commenting on.

You're clearly not even giving 110% here.

ScottyZ

P.S. Fold.

Unknown

You mean it doesn't even depend?

ScottyZ

all_aces wrote:

You mean it doesn't even depend?

You've got me.

It depends on that missing 5%.

ScottyZ

BigChrisEl

Quick Question for you Aces (or any one else):

Do you think just calling the BB on 9h-Ah was a good move? Should you have raised?

ScottyZ

BigChrisEl wrote:

Quick Question for you Aces (or any one else):

Do you think just calling the BB on 9h-Ah was a good move? Should you have raised?

I'd play it the same way pre-flop. That's a good limping hand in a limping situation (being behind one player who has already limped).

ScottyZ

djw

Hrmm. Tough one. His raise at the flop was probably to get everyone behind him out, and to see how strong your hand was. Since you didn't re-raise him and checked on the turn, maybe he put you on a weaker hand and hit his ace... Obviously he could have hit trips as well. It's a tough one..

I'll put him on 87 for a two pair flop. CALL.

Unknown

Do you think just calling the BB on 9h-Ah was a good move? Should you have raised?

Raising is fine, but I think calling is fine, as well. A9o would be a different story, but with Ah9h, if I flop a flush draw, it's to the nuts.

I'll put him on 87 for a two pair flop. CALL.

I'm a little confused... you think he has two pair, and you think I should call with one pair?

Regards,
all_aces

garro

I would like to say I would call here. But I would probably fold. It's not worth the call for almost all your chips. Better hands will come and you have the chips to wait.

ScottyZ

I'll put him on 87 for a two pair flop. CALL.

Maybe this read is just to set up the post-mortem "I *knew* he had it" statement after making the call.

You can't call here if you put your opponent on 87 (or better) with a high degree of certainty. Because the turn bet is so huge, you're getting (approximately) 1 to 1 from the pot for a 14-out draw with one card to come.

Now, if by "putting him on 87" you mean this is the most likely hand, but he could have other *worse* hands, the analysis gets more complicated. But as a simple example, if you think he has a 51% chance of having 87 and a 49% chance of drawing dead with 32, you can probably call here.

ScottyZ

sweetjimmi

I think this a fold situation. The best you could really hope for is KK, QQ, or JJ. I think it is quite reasonable for them to have JJ and move all in in this situation.

Another possible hand is A10 of clubs in which your drawing near dead. No matter what your a very small favourite best. Fold and get your money in else where.

I think that each of their bets is screaming for a call (especially the min raise on the flop) and my final guess is A10 clubs and an easy fold for you.

djw

all_aces wrote:

I'm a little confused... you think he has two pair, and you think I should call with one pair?

Regards,
all_aces

Oops. I read your hand as AT, sorry... weeeee

fold.

garro

I think the real problem here, is putting him on any hand.

He could have raised post flop for any number of reasons. Too steal, for value (in case he hits his hand on the turn. i.e. flush draw), or he might have a real hand (set, straight, 2 pair). Calling an all in bet with 1 pair medium kicker, on a draw to which you are not drawing to a truely nut hand (you have to avoid any club and also be watching for a higher straight) is just simply not worth it because he could be playing any 2 cards.

CoreyBrown

I think he might have put you on a few things. Due to your betting you might have been.

He could have put you on Ax being real low. With a real low x it is hard to call that all in it. He might have had an overpair but nothing great like 10s. Check on the turn would solidify that you were scared to bet strongly at the ace. He pushed when he saw your weakness.

Or he had Ax and figured you were as well due to the same reasons.

If he hit the nut straight would he push? Doubt it....gain money instead

**fold** regardless imo.

garro

Perhaps a better way to ask this question is...

Has your A9 suited hit the flop and the turn hard enough that you can call with confidence and win this hand against any 2 cards that the other player might have.

After all one scenerio (the best one for him anyhow, not that I think this is what he had...) is that he might have hit the straight on the flop (J9 isn't an unreasonable hand to play here if you are fairly confident that the blind will not raise the bet) and raised to scare out a flush draw. Then after the turn when the flush didn't hit, go all in to win the pot right there, or if someone playing a flush draw wants to call him, with 1 card to come he has the best of it.

Of course with so many flat calls and limps into this Multiway pot (even though after the turn it is down to 2 players). A9 suited (when you didn't hit your flush or even a flush draw), just isn't as strong as it could be on this flop/turn.

Unknown

Hmmm. Good points so far. Let's back it up for a moment, and ignore the fact that he moved in on the turn. What about his minimum raise on the flop? To me, this can mean only one of two things:

1) He flopped an absolute monster... so big, in fact, that he's not worried about letting me see the turn, because it's a pretty easy flop call for me with only the minimum raise.

2) He himself is on a draw, and wants a look at some more cards as cheaply as possible, which means he wants to draw on his terms. A minimum raise on the flop is the cheapest way to do that. If I actually have a hand, even a minimum flop raise might be enough to slow me down, and let him draw cheaply, with position. This is a good way to draw, and I use this play myself.

Any other scenario is, IMHO, out of the question for a good player (which I assumed he was). He either has a hand that is so big that he wants to give me some rope, or he is drawing as well. Anything in between (including hands like AT, 78, etc...) would have raised more on the flop, to get a naked nine, if not a flush draw, out.

I know I make some assumptions here, but hey, poker's all about assumptions and educated guesses. Does anyone think I'm way off-base in my flop analysis?

Regards,
all_aces

Chugs

I think he has you pegged on the flush draw more so than the flush draw. I think your assessment of AT is likely quite sound. I put it this way, if i had AT i think this is exactly how the betting would have gone.

There is one other possibility and it's your best case here. He may be playing something like 9T, so he's pushing a semi bluff with the open ended straight draw plus having a pair.

In the end i think it comes down to how does he read you. If he considers you to be a tight player and one who might have some fear of busting out right after the re-buy period then this could be a great spot to be bluffing you. I rarely bluff, but this is the type of situation where i've done it quite successfully.

Unknown

if i had AT i think this is exactly how the betting would have gone.

Hmm... you would raise the minimum on such a draw-heavy flop?

He may be playing something like 9T, so he's pushing a semi bluff with the open ended straight draw plus having a pair

I could see him raising the minimum on the flop with this sort of hand, trying to control the price of his draw.

I rarely bluff, but this is the type of situation where i've done it quite successfully.

Agreed. His turn play didn't match what he did on the flop, at all. Is he an extremely tricky player who plays hands in very unusual ways, or does he see that ace as a scare card for me, and is trying to take it with a marginal hand?

Regards,
all_aces

Unknown

Thanks to all for the replies. The vast majority of players said 'fold', and I like folding in this spot, too. But, I called. I've already more or less outlined my reasons: nobody would raise the minimum with any kind of made hand on that kind of extremely draw-heavy flop. Even J9, for the nut straight, would want to raise more than that to knock out a club draw, which I could very possibly have had.

So, either he was semi-bluffing, and using the scare card--the ace--to knock me off my hand, or he doesn't really care about protecting his hand on a draw-heavy flop. I was worried about AT, but even though I thought he was 'tricky', raising the minimum on that particular flop with AT was a bit too tricky, IMHO.

I'm not a huge fan of the way I played this hand. I put myself in a tough spot... I went deep into the tank, and had the mouse clicked on 'fold', then gently removed it from 'fold', and called instead. Here's the whole hand:

PokerStars Game #710268506: Tournament #2713395, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2004/09/21 - 23:27:38 (ET)
Table '2713395 14' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: all aces (7712 in chips)
Seat 2: bizwiz (7614 in chips)
Seat 3: agrilus (10065 in chips)
Seat 5: jabberwocky (13416 in chips)
Seat 6: Kaust (7075 in chips)
Seat 7: crazyjerry (2975 in chips)
Seat 8: bonk2004 (5110 in chips)
Seat 9: d9090 (6673 in chips)
agrilus: posts small blind 75
jabberwocky: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [9h Ah]
Kaust: folds
zzztop is connected
crazyjerry: calls 150
bonk2004: folds
d9090: folds
all aces: calls 150
bizwiz: calls 150
agrilus: calls 75
jabberwocky: checks
*** FLOP *** [Th 8c 7c]
agrilus: checks
jabberwocky: checks
crazyjerry: checks
all aces: bets 450
bizwiz: raises 450 to 900
agrilus: folds
jabberwocky: folds
crazyjerry: folds
all aces: calls 450
*** TURN *** [Th 8c 7c] [Ad]
all aces: checks
bizwiz: bets 6564 and is all-in
all aces: calls 6564
*** RIVER *** [Th 8c 7c Ad] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
all aces: shows [9h Ah] (a straight, Seven to Jack)
bizwiz: shows [4c Jc] (a pair of Jacks)
all aces collected 15678 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 15678 | Rake 0
Board [Th 8c 7c Ad Jd]
Seat 1: all aces showed [9h Ah] and won (15678) with a straight, Seven to Jack
Seat 2: bizwiz (button) showed [4c Jc] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: agrilus (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: jabberwocky (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Kaust folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: crazyjerry folded on the Flop
Seat 8: bonk2004 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: d9090 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I thought this was a very interesting hand--whether I'd been 'right' or 'wrong'--and I'm glad that it seems a lot of you thought it was interesting, as well.

Regards,
all_aces

MickeyHoldem

Well... let me be the first to say... "That was a great call"... I like everything about your analysis... you're too hard on yourself regarding your thoughts on how you played this...

I'm not a huge fan of the way I played this hand. I put myself in a tough spot...

I don't see anything remotely concerning about your play.

You may be getting too the point where people will make these plays at you more often. "We" know we can't outplay him over the long haul... "We" have to put him to a decision for all his chips, which he will likely want to avoid since he's better that "us".

"Great call"

Unknown

You may be getting too the point where people will make these plays at you more often.

While I appreciate the thought, and my ego would loooove to believe that's true... ... I don't think anyone at Stars has any idea that I'm a consistent winner there. It wouldn't matter to me much even if they did, but in online poker, names come and go pretty often. There are too many to keep track of, especially in the case of someone like me: I haven't been playing (as) much in the last couple of months, and I changed my avatar after that nice Sunday afternoon in May.

"Great call"

tyvm!

Regards,
all_aces

sweetjimmi

Aces...this is a perfect example of why you are winning. I think many of the replies were on the right lines about the hand but there is more to No-Limit tourneys than the hand. You player the player ... perfectly, WELL DONE.

How'd you do in the tourney?

Unknown

How'd you do in the tourney?

A respectably disappointing 45th place (99 paid). It would have been nice if I'd been able to double my stack like this a little later on in the tournament as well, lol. I busted out with AJ vs. K2. Ugh. I was down to about 15K at the 1500/3000 level (IIRC), and a *very* loose preflop raiser tripled the blinds... I re-raised all-in, he had an easy call, and he hit his king on the river.

On the subject of bad beats, twodimes.net is addictive. After a bad beat (for me, or against me) I used to think to myself, 'oh well, shit happens'. Now, I like to find out exactly how often shit does, in fact, happen. After I beat AQ with AT, I go to twodimes.net to see exactly how much I suck. Then, when K2 beats my AJ, I go to twodimes.net to see exactly how much of a favourite I was. It's therapeutic, relaxing, and instructive, all at the same time. Highly recommended for those who feel like this after a bad beat: :banghead:

Cheers,
all_aces

Jay

Great call. I would've figured that he was using the Ace as a scare card against you. If he really had a hand like A7, A8 or AT, why would he move all-in to possibly get nothing more from you with a good hand? I don't know, maybe you guys know more than I do, I'm not that great a tournament player.

Unknown

If he really had a hand like A7, A8 or AT, why would he move all-in to possibly get nothing more from you with a good hand?

I could see him moving in with these hands to protect against a draw. However, I can't see him raising the minimum on the flop with any of these. A7 and A8 would either flat-call the flop, or raise more, IMHO, so basically, it was his flop play that set off the *very* last-minute alarm bells in my head, before I called his all-in on the turn.

Great call. I would've figured that he was using the Ace as a scare card against you.

Thanks! I could've saved myself some stress if I'd been using that ace as a scare card against him lol, but life ain't perfect.

Cheers,
all_aces