Yet Another 1/2 Hand
You hold JdQc in middle position; six people see the flop of Js,3s,10H. Checked around to you and you bet pot of $12. Two callers, LAG (to your right) who plays a lot of rag hands and loves 23off and TAG player (to your left) who usually plays high cards a lot. The turn is a Qd. You check hoping for a bet and TAG makes it $30 to call ($78 now in the pot). LAG folds. TAG has $110 left and you have him covered.
What is your play?
What cards does he likely hold?
Can you fold top two pairs in this position?
Is a re-raise a bad play as he may be pot committed at this point?
What is your play?
What cards does he likely hold?
Can you fold top two pairs in this position?
Is a re-raise a bad play as he may be pot committed at this point?
Comments
JTx double suited is one of the most dangerous flops.
Of the top 20 hands it hits a whole bunch of them for live live draws.
The TAG just called a pot sized bet on the flop. ... and then bet to a Q offsuit.
Was he drawing to a gut shot with AK and a pot sized bet with 4 players behind and less than 15 to 1 stack size behind??
Nah it's possible but Unlikely.
Did he make QQQ?
To do that he would have had to have limped in with QQ...
If he's a TAG he wouldn't have wanted to limp in with a big pair with players in the pot.
Same goes for TTT or JJJ. but less so.
AsKs has 13 outs... so he might be calling with that... but I'd be surprised that he didn't raise AKs preflop.
AsTs looks like a good possiblitly... 11 outs and it fits a TAG's play perfectly....
AsQs is a little less likely since no preflop raise.
AJ fits he play and is another possibility.
He could have 333 but that's life if he has that.
I'd bet here...
How much?
if you just call the pot will be 140 with 110 stacks behind...
You sure don't want to see a spade king ten or ace on the river.
He could be semibluffing...
I'd push here...
1. Limp from LP
2. Flat call on the flop 3-ways
3. Bet out 3/4 pot when the original bettor checks the turn
KQ, Q10, Q9, K10, 98, XsYs (fits 1&2, possibly not 3 - depends on the TAG). The only hand here that beats you is 98.
He probably would have raised QQ, JJ, and 1010 preflop. If he flopped a set of 3s (or Jacks or Tens or Queens) he would have raised on the flop, especially with the caller in between you and him.
You've shown weakness by betting the flop, but then checking the turn when an overcard hits. Does a TAG need a good hand to bet here? No. So he doesn't necessarily need 98 to bet 3/4 of the pot here. He probably has a Q and thinks he has you beat. I'd put him on Q9 and shove.
He's not pot committed, he's in for $44 and has $110 back.
/g2
Do you really think it is more likely that the villain would try to bluff on the river after you raised on the turn than to call against the odds of such a big draw? I think you would have to reraise at least $50 on the turn to take away the odds from the straight and flush draws. That would leave the villain with $60 back. Why would he throw away his last $60 when you have shown obvious strength and you would only have to call $60 to win over $200. He doesn't have any bluff power left. If he doesn't put the money in on the turn, I doubt he will give you any more on the river.
my thinking was if I went all-in he would likely call at the turn if he was on a draw. By going all-in he was not getting the odds needed to make a profitable call. I don't think he would have called a further bet on the river if he missed his hand so I think the turn all-in was the best play (for me to maximize my potential profit). Agreed?
Clearly there is no value bet you can make on the river if the villain misses his draws. However the suggestion is that you might be able to induce a bluff on the river. However, I would have pushed in this situation.
If I knew he had As9s on the turn then he would only have 32% to win.. (If you don't see how to calculate this number then ask :-)
You want to get as much cash in the pot as possible..
You're getting about 2 to 1 on your chances to win....
Being a winning player means you push hard in situation like this...
It doesn't get much sweeter than this...
If my read is that my top two pair is probably up against a flush draw and/or OESD, I would make a big bet right away on the turn (e.g., at least $42), instead of risking giving a free card to my opponents to catch their draw.
When you checked instead and TAG bet $30, your breakeven percentage is 28% (30/108 ) and your odds of winning with top two pair against TAG's likely range of hands is easily higher than 28%, so folding is the worst option.
Lucky for you, LAG did not call which could have given both your opponents the proper odds to call any bet from you. Given my reads, the best play now is to raise the TAG all-in to $140. A raise of $100 is not optimal. Why give your opponent a choice of better pot odds to call $100 or putting his extra $10 in? In game theory, it is never bad to give your opponent fewer choices.
Aside from AKs, ATs or AQs, A9s or A8s is the worst suited Ace to be up against with 14 outs. If I knew that he had A9s, I would bet the maximum that I think he will call. If he is willing to call an all-in, his EV is minimized, i.e.,
$EV = - $140 * 68.2% + $188 * 31.8%
= -$35.78.
In conclusion, even if it turned out that you got a bad beat on the river, you made good plays on the flop and after the TAG's turn bet.