There's a precise probability of every event occurring in poker. If you think that by wearing your lucky underwear you can somehow defy the law of probability then I suggest you put on your lucky underwear, find a tall building and see if you can defy the law of gravity. I assure you that both with have the same result.
There's a precise probability of every event occurring in poker. If you think that by wearing your lucky underwear you can somehow defy the law of probability then I suggest you put on your lucky underwear, find a tall building and see if you can defy the law of gravity. I assure you that both with have the same result.
You are confused gravity exists probability is nothing more that statistics or odds created by man. Statistics are not laws but a system created by humankind for the appearance of order. You can play your hands anyway you see fit based on your man created probabilities and formulaes but no matter what probability you are pursueing on the flip side your oppenent is also subject to this so called probability "law". Being a fabrication of man there is no such law. Just because you have a better chance of hitting your card doesn't mean you will. The cards fall where they may. Each dealing of the cards has no bearing on the past or future hands dealt. They are independent. For anyone to say different is spreading bunk. What matters is the present shuffling of the cards and you being lucky enough to be dealt a hand that will hold up. What is the meaning of luck anyway? Good fortune going your way perhaps.
Why does this seem to be falling into a religion versus science debate?
Just keep drinking the kool-aid dalini
Why do losers have to resort to personal attacks to bolster their position. I suggest you re read mcksmith's post to see who is slanting towards religion. There is no such law as probability but more along the lines of possibility. Is it possible? If you can answer yes, then it may just happen.
ie True hand: I have QQ the best hand. I raised before the flop quited considerably. I am reraised all in by a J 8 unsuited. He out drew me on the turn and river to make a st8. What was the probability of that happening? but it happened and what can I say. BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME!!
Law of gravity = science
Law of probability = mathematics
I fail to see how I managed to bring religion into it. *shrug*
I have nothing else to add because you're right and everyone on this forum, every author of every poker book and every other winning poker player is wrong.
He is probably a troll, but there's no law that says he has to be a troll. There is always the possibility that he is logically-challenged. It's not like he's telling us life is a box of chocolates - all he's claiming is that a major field of mathematics doesn't exist.
Though skill is an important factor, most people are thinking of poker as a game where small differences in skill will lead to large, long run differences in expected winnings. But actually, poker is a game where a relatively small number of unskilled players provide the bulk of the winnings for the reasonably skilled players. This often falsely confuses players into thinking there is either MORE LUCK or MORE SKILL involved.
- Skill is really knowledge but while skill isn't important, the more knowledge you have will help you win
- Luck comes from good fortune
- Betting on red in roulette means you're 50% to win
- Win a poker tournament and you're a pro
- But you're not a pro unless most people know your name
- Mashing your face against a keyboard hurts
- Luck is a tangible quality that can be scored, like Charisma in D&D
- Math is for fools
- Dalani believes in genies
Law of gravity = science
Law of probability = mathematics
I fail to see how I managed to bring religion into it. *shrug*
I have nothing else to add because you're right and everyone on this forum, every author of every poker book and every other winning poker player is wrong.
You brought in laws not me. You claim there is some mythical law of probability which there is no such law. What exactly am I wrong about? My position is that it takes more than skill to win. Some call that luck. This reality is proven over and over by countless bad beats. Admit it or not Poker is balance of chance and skill. Anyone can write a book and anyone can call themselves a winning player. You are only as good as what you have done lately.
First time luck
Second time coincidence
Third time skill
You want to go on the offence against what I have said then be specific as to what I am so wrong about and what everyone else as you state is so right about. :wav:
uhh thread is whether luck is a factor in poker. This post has nothing to do with that topic. My posts on the otherhand relates to this topic. You should Look in the mirror TROLL all uppercase.
He is probably a troll, but there's no law that says he has to be a troll. There is always the possibility that he is logically-challenged. It's not like he's telling us life is a box of chocolates - all he's claiming is that a major field of mathematics doesn't exist.
DrTyore - suit up
And you are saying (((call it whatever you want)) luck doesn't exist either and somehow your past hands dealt in poker are connected to your present and future hands. Sounds religious to me. I am very much for the mathematical approach to influencing a decision to play a hand or not. Just because you are more mathematically favored to win doesn't mean you will win. If it makes you feel better to play that way go ahead. I suspect you will be doing alot of because someone elses luck (probability) got the better of you.
Damn you dalini ... I almost spewed coffee on my monitor. You get two thumbs up for entertainment value. Keep posting, you're funnier than some of my joke lists.
And you are saying (((call it whatever you want)) luck doesn't exist either and somehow your past hands dealt in poker are connected to your present and future hands.
No, you misunderstood my point completely. I didn't mention poker, luck, or anything else. I wasn't even talking to you, I was just reminding compuease that you may be legitimately stupid, rather than a troll.
As far as the actual topic, it's basically been:
Random Forumer: Poker has skill
Dalini: It's not all skill
Random Forumer: No, but some skill, and over time things even out.
Dalini: But the cards have no memory.
Random Forumer: No, but probability shows that over time skill will win.
Dalini: There is no such thing as skill. Just applied knowledge which can help you change the outcome of the game in your favor. But no skill.
Random Forumer: OK. If I "apply my knowledge" to the game, over time probability will even things out.
Dalini: Probability dosn't exist either.
Me: Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
Dalini: Are you saying lucky hamsters have memory of the cards?
I think this thread got a little off track; I don't think luck really had much to do with this hand since it was played down to the river and all cards are known; my point was that a skilled player can take the pot through his/her actions (i.e by a suitable bet on the river); this demonstates that skill contributed to winning the hand and its not just the cards that determines who wins the chips at the end of the day.
Today poker wisdom, "There is no luck in poker once the river card is known." Before the river card, luck is an obvious factor.
No, you misunderstood my point completely. I didn't mention poker, luck, or anything else. I wasn't even talking to you, I was just reminding compuease that you may be legitimately stupid, rather than a troll.
As far as the actual topic, it's basically been:
Random Forumer: Poker has skill
Dalini: It's not all skill
Random Forumer: No, but some skill, and over time things even out.
Dalini: But the cards have no memory.
Random Forumer: No, but probability shows that over time skill will win.
Dalini: There is no such thing as skill. Just applied knowledge which can help you change the outcome of the game in your favor. But no skill.
Random Forumer: OK. If I "apply my knowledge" to the game, over time probability will even things out.
Dalini: Probability dosn't exist either.
Me: Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
Dalini: Are you saying lucky hamsters have memory of the cards?
I believe I equated skill as knowledge of the game. But I also said skill and knowledge is not enough. You need the cards to fall your way. I have said that's luck. When it comes to posting on forums you need to be thick skinned. To call me stupid is merely you projecting what you are on me. Its a pity you feel that way about yourself.:D
First time luck
Second time coincidence
Third time skill
I want to thank you for the hot sex last night.
See, I was flipping this quarter in the air. First time I flipped, it was tails. Second time it was tails! My wife said, "My, what a coincidence". Third time it was tails!!! My wife was truly impressed by my mad skillz in flipping quarters and she said, "Come here baby, let's see what else you can do three times in a row..."
I goofed. It's the law of large numbers that dictate the mathematical aspect of poker. In a nutshell the law of large numbers states that in the short term there will be a large variance (the mythical force we refer to as luck) in the outcome. In the long run (large numbers), the outcome will closely approximate the actual probability of the event occurring.
That's why in stud you can get trip aces three times in an hour and lose twice to an underpair that outdraws you. Even though you you have a 93% chance of winning, each hand is completely independent of each other (there are no poker gods keeping track) and in the short term (3 hands) you lose 66% of the time. Should I live long enough to get trip aces 10,000 times, I will find that I will have won close to 93% of the time.
Your insistence that a mythical force called luck is more powerful than the laws of mathematics is comical.
I goofed. It's the law of large numbers that dictate the mathematical aspect of poker.
Your insistence that a mythical force called luck is more powerful than the laws of mathematics is comical.
I would hardly call mathmatics laws. The only time the "law of large of numbers" would bear any relevance is if I was the Poker site or the Casino. Because I am the house I know mathematically from all the hands played out on my poker site or the casino the percentages will play out. However you the :fish: have no party to those percentages because your play is to small.
Just because you know mathematics doesn't mean you will be favored in winning any given hand. That is what I called the luck factor. I would hardly call it a mythical force that some poker god is bestowing upon its most worthy followers.
If it will make those on this thread happier I will alter luck and call it variance because I agree maybe thats what it is. However, a rose is still a rose by any other name. Luck, variance, all the same as the cards do fall where they may at any given time and don't give a rats ass about your mathematics.
2) to be absolutely certain you are a skilled poker player you need to examine the results of over 2 million hands (thread on 2+2 a while back)
3) who cares if you are absolutely certain you are a skilled player -- all you have to do is play with players who are worse than you (this implies that skill does indeed play a part in poker, and that everyone has some skills)
4) those of you who have not encountered a long bad run (over the course of 10,000 hands or more), don't realize that religion does play a part in poker
5) dialani just doesn't know how to express his thoughts properly
6) for those who are on a winning streak (over the course of 10,000 hands or so), you are likely overestimating your skill level
7) for those who are on a losing streak (over the course of 10,000 hands or so), you are overestimating the effect of luck
8) the probability that someone's mother is a hamster is quite low, but if it were true the mother's offspring would be amazingly intelligent even though their intelligence in the general human population would be quite low
9) you can wake up in the morning and have trouble figuring out how to get your pants on AND still go to brantford and go on an extended winning streak - this brings me back to religion
That's why I corrected myself But it is the law of large numbers (which is subset or something to that effect of the theory of probability) that says in the long run the probability of an event occurring will closely approximate what it should be given enough trials. In the short term though, luck/variance will produce results that are no where near close to what they are expected to be.
I agree with you giving out the 10,000 figure because anything less than that really is short term. Although I have no where near that figure worth of experience, I know that I'm currently experiencing the positive effects of variance and the law of large numbers will eventually even it out.
I agree with you giving out the 10,000 figure because anything less than that really is short term.
Actually, I intended to use the 10k number as the short term in which you can have serious upswings or downswings. In the 2+2 thread a year or two back, they figured the long term was well over a million hands. However, by the time you get to the long term, your skill level, as that of your opponents has changed so much that it is no longer relevant. Yikes!
4) those of you who have not encountered a long bad run (over the course of 10,000 hands or more), don't realize that religion does play a part in poker
5) dialani just doesn't know how to express his thoughts properly
Magi
Bowing a to a poker God :eek: I have been quite clear. I have stated many times it takes more than skill to win. The cards or hands have to go your way. This has been refered to as luck or variance. Fine whatever.
Your 10000 hands would be skewed because in order to get an accurate sampling you would need to take all hands dealt for that specific tournament and to all players in that tournament to see how all the math calculates out. Unless you are a commentator seeing the hole cards or the poker site that has access to all this information there is no way to know what cards are favored to come up next. If this sample is not large enough the next tournament as well would need to be apart of the sampling and you would need to play in all these tournaments for this to have any meaning. For anyone to suggest your hands outside of this sampling analysis has any meaning is bull.:bs:
Poker is a multidimensional game that requires employing different stategies to compensate for these so called variances. Are there Iron clad stategies that will make you a "winning player?" perhaps but as these stategies become known they lose their potency and people end up doing the opposite to what you want thus thwarting your stategic plays.
Comments
You are confused gravity exists probability is nothing more that statistics or odds created by man. Statistics are not laws but a system created by humankind for the appearance of order. You can play your hands anyway you see fit based on your man created probabilities and formulaes but no matter what probability you are pursueing on the flip side your oppenent is also subject to this so called probability "law". Being a fabrication of man there is no such law. Just because you have a better chance of hitting your card doesn't mean you will. The cards fall where they may. Each dealing of the cards has no bearing on the past or future hands dealt. They are independent. For anyone to say different is spreading bunk. What matters is the present shuffling of the cards and you being lucky enough to be dealt a hand that will hold up. What is the meaning of luck anyway? Good fortune going your way perhaps.
Just keep drinking the kool-aid dalini
Why do losers have to resort to personal attacks to bolster their position. I suggest you re read mcksmith's post to see who is slanting towards religion. There is no such law as probability but more along the lines of possibility. Is it possible? If you can answer yes, then it may just happen.
ie True hand: I have QQ the best hand. I raised before the flop quited considerably. I am reraised all in by a J 8 unsuited. He out drew me on the turn and river to make a st8. What was the probability of that happening? but it happened and what can I say. BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME!!
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=53637&highlight=y0ungdr0
And he just dominates freerolls.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=9980020&page=0&vc=1
Law of probability = mathematics
I fail to see how I managed to bring religion into it. *shrug*
I have nothing else to add because you're right and everyone on this forum, every author of every poker book and every other winning poker player is wrong.
DrTyore - suit up
HUZZAH!!
Though skill is an important factor, most people are thinking of poker as a game where small differences in skill will lead to large, long run differences in expected winnings. But actually, poker is a game where a relatively small number of unskilled players provide the bulk of the winnings for the reasonably skilled players. This often falsely confuses players into thinking there is either MORE LUCK or MORE SKILL involved.
Welcome back!!! We missed you.
- Skill is really knowledge but while skill isn't important, the more knowledge you have will help you win
- Luck comes from good fortune
- Betting on red in roulette means you're 50% to win
- Win a poker tournament and you're a pro
- But you're not a pro unless most people know your name
- Mashing your face against a keyboard hurts
- Luck is a tangible quality that can be scored, like Charisma in D&D
- Math is for fools
- Dalani believes in genies
You brought in laws not me. You claim there is some mythical law of probability which there is no such law. What exactly am I wrong about? My position is that it takes more than skill to win. Some call that luck. This reality is proven over and over by countless bad beats. Admit it or not Poker is balance of chance and skill. Anyone can write a book and anyone can call themselves a winning player. You are only as good as what you have done lately.
First time luck
Second time coincidence
Third time skill
You want to go on the offence against what I have said then be specific as to what I am so wrong about and what everyone else as you state is so right about. :wav:
:spam:
uhh thread is whether luck is a factor in poker. This post has nothing to do with that topic. My posts on the otherhand relates to this topic. You should Look in the mirror TROLL all uppercase.
And you are saying (((call it whatever you want)) luck doesn't exist either and somehow your past hands dealt in poker are connected to your present and future hands. Sounds religious to me. I am very much for the mathematical approach to influencing a decision to play a hand or not. Just because you are more mathematically favored to win doesn't mean you will win. If it makes you feel better to play that way go ahead. I suspect you will be doing alot of
/g2
As far as the actual topic, it's basically been:
Random Forumer: Poker has skill
Dalini: It's not all skill
Random Forumer: No, but some skill, and over time things even out.
Dalini: But the cards have no memory.
Random Forumer: No, but probability shows that over time skill will win.
Dalini: There is no such thing as skill. Just applied knowledge which can help you change the outcome of the game in your favor. But no skill.
Random Forumer: OK. If I "apply my knowledge" to the game, over time probability will even things out.
Dalini: Probability dosn't exist either.
Me: Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
Dalini: Are you saying lucky hamsters have memory of the cards?
I think this thread got a little off track; I don't think luck really had much to do with this hand since it was played down to the river and all cards are known; my point was that a skilled player can take the pot through his/her actions (i.e by a suitable bet on the river); this demonstates that skill contributed to winning the hand and its not just the cards that determines who wins the chips at the end of the day.
Today poker wisdom, "There is no luck in poker once the river card is known." Before the river card, luck is an obvious factor.
I believe I equated skill as knowledge of the game. But I also said skill and knowledge is not enough. You need the cards to fall your way. I have said that's luck. When it comes to posting on forums you need to be thick skinned. To call me stupid is merely you projecting what you are on me. Its a pity you feel that way about yourself.:D
I want to thank you for the hot sex last night.
See, I was flipping this quarter in the air. First time I flipped, it was tails. Second time it was tails! My wife said, "My, what a coincidence". Third time it was tails!!! My wife was truly impressed by my mad skillz in flipping quarters and she said, "Come here baby, let's see what else you can do three times in a row..."
Huh? I never said you were stupid, I said you might be stupid. Try not to mis-quote me when you're contradicting me, it makes you look dumb...
BTW - what's your hamsters name?
(yes, I'm really getting that little sleep right now...)
That's why in stud you can get trip aces three times in an hour and lose twice to an underpair that outdraws you. Even though you you have a 93% chance of winning, each hand is completely independent of each other (there are no poker gods keeping track) and in the short term (3 hands) you lose 66% of the time. Should I live long enough to get trip aces 10,000 times, I will find that I will have won close to 93% of the time.
Your insistence that a mythical force called luck is more powerful than the laws of mathematics is comical.
I would hardly call mathmatics laws. The only time the "law of large of numbers" would bear any relevance is if I was the Poker site or the Casino. Because I am the house I know mathematically from all the hands played out on my poker site or the casino the percentages will play out. However you the :fish: have no party to those percentages because your play is to small.
Just because you know mathematics doesn't mean you will be favored in winning any given hand. That is what I called the luck factor. I would hardly call it a mythical force that some poker god is bestowing upon its most worthy followers.
If it will make those on this thread happier I will alter luck and call it variance because I agree maybe thats what it is. However, a rose is still a rose by any other name. Luck, variance, all the same as the cards do fall where they may at any given time and don't give a rats ass about your mathematics.
Please post what sites you play on and your screen IDs.
Thanks
Johnnie
Just some random thoughts:
1) it's not the law of probability -- rather it's probability theory -- check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
2) to be absolutely certain you are a skilled poker player you need to examine the results of over 2 million hands (thread on 2+2 a while back)
3) who cares if you are absolutely certain you are a skilled player -- all you have to do is play with players who are worse than you (this implies that skill does indeed play a part in poker, and that everyone has some skills)
4) those of you who have not encountered a long bad run (over the course of 10,000 hands or more), don't realize that religion does play a part in poker
5) dialani just doesn't know how to express his thoughts properly
6) for those who are on a winning streak (over the course of 10,000 hands or so), you are likely overestimating your skill level
7) for those who are on a losing streak (over the course of 10,000 hands or so), you are overestimating the effect of luck
8) the probability that someone's mother is a hamster is quite low, but if it were true the mother's offspring would be amazingly intelligent even though their intelligence in the general human population would be quite low
9) you can wake up in the morning and have trouble figuring out how to get your pants on AND still go to brantford and go on an extended winning streak - this brings me back to religion
Cheers
Magi
I agree with you giving out the 10,000 figure because anything less than that really is short term. Although I have no where near that figure worth of experience, I know that I'm currently experiencing the positive effects of variance and the law of large numbers will eventually even it out.
Actually, I intended to use the 10k number as the short term in which you can have serious upswings or downswings. In the 2+2 thread a year or two back, they figured the long term was well over a million hands. However, by the time you get to the long term, your skill level, as that of your opponents has changed so much that it is no longer relevant. Yikes!
Cheers
Magi
Bowing a to a poker God :eek: I have been quite clear. I have stated many times it takes more than skill to win. The cards or hands have to go your way. This has been refered to as luck or variance. Fine whatever.
Your 10000 hands would be skewed because in order to get an accurate sampling you would need to take all hands dealt for that specific tournament and to all players in that tournament to see how all the math calculates out. Unless you are a commentator seeing the hole cards or the poker site that has access to all this information there is no way to know what cards are favored to come up next. If this sample is not large enough the next tournament as well would need to be apart of the sampling and you would need to play in all these tournaments for this to have any meaning. For anyone to suggest your hands outside of this sampling analysis has any meaning is bull.:bs:
Poker is a multidimensional game that requires employing different stategies to compensate for these so called variances. Are there Iron clad stategies that will make you a "winning player?" perhaps but as these stategies become known they lose their potency and people end up doing the opposite to what you want thus thwarting your stategic plays.