Raise or go for overcall?
LAG is 55/35/3, LP is a calling station fish (40/2/0.4).
Comments on turn? (FWIW I can actually see reasons for call/3bet/fold to the LAG's CR).
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ah, Ad.
Hero raises, 1 fold, Button (LP fish) calls, 1 fold, BB (LAG) calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) Qs, 7c, 6h (3 players)
LAG checks, Hero bets, LP fish calls, LAG calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 8h (3 players)
LAG checks, Hero bets, LP fish calls, LAG raises, Hero calls, LP fish calls.
River: (10.66 BB) Ac (3 players)
LAG bets, Hero ?
Comments on turn? (FWIW I can actually see reasons for call/3bet/fold to the LAG's CR).
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ah, Ad.
Hero raises, 1 fold, Button (LP fish) calls, 1 fold, BB (LAG) calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) Qs, 7c, 6h (3 players)
LAG checks, Hero bets, LP fish calls, LAG calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 8h (3 players)
LAG checks, Hero bets, LP fish calls, LAG raises, Hero calls, LP fish calls.
River: (10.66 BB) Ac (3 players)
LAG bets, Hero ?
Comments
I think the LAG hit his Queen (not sure if you thought otherwise) and wanted to see if the turn brought an Ace.
I'd raise the river, if the LP fish has anything he is probaby calling the raise (Hell he may have hit the case Ace even).
Not much can beat you here (9T,95) and if by some miracle one of the others hit their set...you get paid off nice.
Nice hand, thanks for posting this is a tough one.
Humm What could LAG have?
I'm guessing his range preflop would be pretty much any 2 cards getting over 5 to 1. I wouldn't put it past him to call with 95o
Would he have lead out with AQ, KQ, QJ, 54 or 98 on the flop? Is he the type of player to slowplay his sets or 2 pairs? With a 3 agg he probably loves to take the play away. He's priced in to call with an open ended straight on the flop and with a gutshot like T9 he may be too optimistic to fold or figure the implied odds give him odds to call.
That's a really rotten card on the turn.
You can't represent a straight, most people don't bet preflop with small suited connectors.
This is a somewhat protected pot since if the fish calls everything , neither you nor the lag can bluff with a high chance of success.
So ... if the Lag is a thinking player the turn CR is probably not a CR bluff.
He might be Check raising with 54, 98, or less likely T9 Q7 Q6 Q8 77 66 88
It sounds passive but I like the odds you're getting for a call.
On the river I'd call and try to get the overcall from the fish.
I'd raise the river.. Lag could 3-bet and LPP could call two.. that's thier profile.. I don't see this as an instance where you have a vulnerable hand that you wouldnt just take the "Bet in the hand" over the "Bet in the bush".
Well the turn isn't exactly a great card (2 pair and straights are certainly possible), against 2 pair I've got some outs (and I am almost certainly ahead of the LP player). Plus he can possibly make this move with some worse hand (pair + str draw in particular). Folding seems gross because I may have the best hand, and likely have some outs if behind (assuming he doesn' have a turned straight which is also a possibility).
Bingo. Which is why I felt I'm probably behind. If he CR's here in a headsup pot, I'm more apt to give him a wider range and am much closer to 3 betting than folding, but the CR in a multiway pot with a calling station type player involved that isn't apt to fold IMO probably narrows his range quite a bit.
I agree with the sentiment, but the problem is I'm not 100% sure my hand IS best. I beat all the 2 pair, str draw + pair, and set hands that lag could have CR'd on the turn. If I raise I "probably" shut out the calling station for 2 cold if he only has a pair (aces probably call). I get a call from the LAG (and possibly a 3 bet from sets or Aces up). And of course I get taken to value town if he has a straight. If I call, I probably pick up the overcall from the passive player without risking getting 3 bet.
Change the river card to a blank and I prefer going for the overall. I'm not too concerned about getting 3-bet from the lag.
FWIW, I'm probably being results oriented.
If, for example LP caller is between LAG and river action is bet, call, I think it's criminal to not raise.
I guess this looks a lot like you probably pick up an extra bet and a bit (due to LP sometimes cold calling 2 or LAG 3 betting a worse hand) when ahead and lose 2 when behind.
River action actually went:
LAG bets, Hero raises, LP folds, LAG 3-bets, Hero ?
Crying call.
And watch as he turns over his suited connectors
I would have bet/folded to the check raise on the turn against almost all players.
Unless the lag is very tricky or bluffing you're way behind.... I don't expect to see this a 3/6 on stars.
Your bet on the turn and his check raise on the turn told you top pair or an overpair is no good.
Unless you think the LAG grossly overvalues his hands or is very smart and tricky you have to fold on the turn to the checkraise.
But you called and now you hit top set.
So the question is.what can you beat???
Did the Lag CR middle or bottom set or 2 pair like 78?
Highly unlikely.
I don't like your river raise. It's much easier to make a overcall bet from the LP than a bet from the LAG.
I think you're beat here... the river 3 bet probably excludes the idea that he has 2 pair or middle set.
The pot is huge.something like 17 big bets....
I'm 90% sure you're beat.
But you're getting about 17 to 1 you have to call...
Thanks for posting this hand .. it's a good one to discuss.
Yes connectors makes sense.
He was getting pot odds to call the flop raise if he had 45
Keep in mind that this is 6 max (and we're only 5 handed to boot). A LAG's range for calling one more in the BB getting 5:1 is way bigger than Ax, suited connectors, pairs and 2 paint.
It's probably more like any 2 suited, any 3 gap offsuit, any single card higher than a T, which probably puts his range around 75-80% of possible hands.
And that might be a conservative estimate...
I tend to disagree with the fold here (specifically vs. a LAG) since:
a) 6 max LAGs (in general) tend to overvalue their hands, and often get out of line.
b) I never tend to think LAG's are "smart and tricky", more on the side of "stupid and tricky" (ie. they do stupid things like slowplaying monsters which is grossly out of character when simply betting/raising simply masks the strength of their hands much better since they bluff so often)
Against a passive player I'm leaning much more towards a fold.
I guess the crux of it comes down to the LP players involvement. Headsup I can see a LAG getting out of line with weaker hands a lot more than in the protected pot. The question is does the LAG realize this or not?
I'm still unconvinced whether raising the river is better than calling since we usually will only pickup the extra bet from the LAG, but are risking 2 bets to do it, whereas we probably get the same payout by just calling (with less risk). Of course in some rare spots we'll pickup multiple bets from both players with worse hands.
Put the LP player in between us or pit me HU vs the LAG and I'll take my chances and raise (crying call of the 3 bet).
I still think the river decision is close either way though (ignoring results).
And FWIW, the A was the ugly reverse implied odds card as the LAG had T9o for the nuts (I know, poker's easy in hindsight).
Hummm this post has got me trying to think it through. I wish you had put the result in white but thanks for posting this hand.
1. Is the LAG a thinking player? There is a huge difference between the rare thinking lag and an common Maniac.
Is he one of the lags that can be very loose preflop and then plays solid postflop? What % of showdowns does he win? Is he winning money?
2. What does he put you on.
Since you bet preflop he doesn't put you on 54 or 87 or T9. Unless you're pulling a Dan Harrington and occasionally raising with suited connectors in MP then he might think the 8 is a scary card for you but not for him.
3. An A came on the river and he bet!
He can beat Aces up.
4. Is he one of the players that check raises his monsters, raises his excellents hands and calls with his good and mediocre hands?
5. I'm pretty sure that you're beat at the river but I still said call since you're getting 17 to 1 to call and I'm *not* as confident in my reads as I should be to fold a 17 bet pot.
6. I still hate your river raise. I think you're behind after you get check raised on the turn. But even if I'm wrong .... If you have the better hand... why not get the bet from the Loose Passive.