another hand analysis

whodoesthat

***** Hand History for Game 953229911 *****
$100 NL Hold'em - Thursday, September 16, 06:38:42 EDT 2004
Table Table 14956 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: 007 ( $107.45 )
Seat 6: Carbont ( $74.88 )
Seat 8: whodoesthat ( $198.32 )
Seat 5: superkalos01 ( $91 )
whodoesthat posts small blind [$1].
007 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to whodoesthat [ Ac 6d ]
superkalos01 calls [$2].
Carbont folds.
whodoesthat calls [$1].
007 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, 8c, Tc ]
whodoesthat checks. <--- mistake?
007 bets [$6].
superkalos01 folds.
whodoesthat raises [$18]. <--- should have called?
007 is all-In.
whodoesthat: i've the ace
007: dont time out
007: call or fold
whodoesthat folds.
007 does not show cards.
007 wins $127.45


i think i should have just called his 6$ bet and seen if i got a free card and maybe the nut flush.. didn't fancy the call for 100$ even though i was up 100 at the time, what do you think? call or fold.. hah


i'm thinking something around 35% chance of hitting a club wtih 2 cards to come?

BBC Z

Yikes!

Dealt to whodoesthat [ Ac 6d ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, 8c, Tc ]

Pretty good flop for a marginal starting hand, but understand that you've currently got a cool ace-high with the potential to turn into the nuts..

whodoesthat checks. <--- mistake?

Nope. You want to see the next card as cheaply as possible.

007 bets [$6].

Pot sized bet from the BB on a raggy flop. He's got two pair or he made a low flush

whodoesthat raises [$18]. <--- should have called?

??? Why ??? If you call and spike your club on the turn, you may take his stack..

i'm thinking something around 35% chance of hitting a club wtih 2 cards to come?

If you are going to sit in a 100NL game, atleast buy a book that explains all the odds.


Personally, I don't believe this hand was actually played out. Theres so much wrong in this post (Play & the idea that you woulda considered calling that all-in) that my head is spinning. April fools was a few months ago.

ScottyZ

In most cases, I'd just call on the flop. Folding is okay too. It really depends on (among a few other things) your assessment of how likely your opponent would be to pay you off (and for how much) if the 4th club does fall on the turn.

I don't like raising on the flop at all. It's a classic case where you could have closed the betting and seen the turn card with a hand that desparately wants to see the turn card. Don't raise in last position when you can't stand a re-raise. That is, to paraphrase a couple of poker authors, if the re-raise will make you nosebarf.

i'm thinking something around 35% chance of hitting a club wtih 2 cards to come?

This is about right if the cards out are assumed to be unknown.

Treat this as the *upper bound* for your chances of winning. Based on the action (specifically, the flop all-in re-raise), your opponent likely has a strong hand. He may have a flush made already (and on a bad day, a straight flush redraw) giving you only 7 club outs. He may have two pair or a set, in which case your winning chances are cut down by redraws.

As it went, folding to the flop re-raise is easy. It doesn't matter how much you are currently up or down in the session.

One last thing:

007: dont time out

Are you playing in an online NL cash game that allows timeout all-in protection? If so, why? This makes cheating far to easy.

ScottyZ

Unknown

Others have more or less said what I was thinking, but I think that this is very important for NL players to understand:

Don't raise in last position when you can't stand a re-raise.

As a matter of fact, don't raise in any position if you'll hate a re-raise. (Total bluffs are a different story.) Sometimes players flop a big hand... so big that they're (almost) blind to the fact that they can be out-drawn. So, they bet fairly small, because they don't want to drive everybody out. This is a mistake, and it's one you should capitalize on. Although your opponent may think that $6 is enough to drive any hands out that are on a draw to beat him, he's wrong. When you factor in the implied odds of a no-limit game, where one $6 call could allow you to take someone's entire stack, you should treat this $6 bet as the gift it is, and just call.

Here's an example of a similar hand I posted here a while back:

(I've erased my opponent's name)

PokerStars Game #554295757: Hold'em No Limit ($5/$10)Table 'Hodios'
Seat 1: all aces ($780 in chips)
Seat 4: chess1980 ($247.50 in chips)
Seat 5: B Buddy ($1631.95 in chips)
Seat 6: Grandiose ($2036 in chips)
Seat 7: XXXX ($945 in chips)
Seat 8: PrettyHyoRi ($810 in chips)
Seat 9: onthenod ($185.55 in chips)
chess1980: posts small blind $5
B Buddy: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [2h Ah]
Grandiose: calls $10
XXXX: calls $10
PrettyHyoRi: folds
onthenod: folds
all aces: calls $10
chess1980: folds
B Buddy: checks
*** FLOP *** [7s 3h Jh]
B Buddy: checks
Grandiose: checks
rilgin joins the table at seat #2

XXXX: bets $40 <---as was the case in your hand, a close to pot-sized bet. At this point I looked at the $900 or so in front of this player, and called.

all aces: calls $40
B Buddy: folds
onthenod said, "zzzzzzzzzzzz"
Grandiose: folds
*** TURN *** [7s 3h Jh] [Kh]
XXXX: checks
all aces: bets $50
XXXX: raises $140 to $190
all aces: raises $150 to $340
XXXX: raises $360 to $700
all aces: raises $30 to $730 and is all-in
XXXX: calls $30
*** RIVER *** [7s 3h Jh Kh] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
XXXX: shows [Qh 5h] (a flush, King high)
all aces: shows [2h Ah] (a flush, Ace high)
all aces collected $1582 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1585 | Rake $3
Board [7s 3h Jh Kh 4c]
Seat 1: all aces (button) showed [2h Ah] and won ($1582) with a flush, Ace
high
Seat 4: chess1980 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: B Buddy (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Grandiose folded on the Flop
Seat 7: XXXX showed [Qh 5h] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 8: PrettyHyoRi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: onthenod folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Implied odds are your friend. I can see that you'd think it's incorrect to flat-call a pot-sized bet on a draw, and in these cases, you'd be correct:

a) you're in a tournament, so there are a million other factors to consider.
b) your opponent doesn't have a deep enough stack to reward you if you make your hand.
c) you are not drawing to the nuts
d) you think your opponent is skilled enough to fold if you make your hand and bet

However, if:

a) your opponent isn't that great a player
b) his stack is deep
c) you're drawing to the nuts, and
d) the bet isn't enough to get you to fold a nut draw with all of the above factors working for you

then you should call the bet, and see another card. The risk would be worth the reward, and the last thing you want to do is raise, allowing him to try to end it right then and there.

Regards,
all_aces