Weak set

moose

Late stages of tourney, short of money though. New table. No reads. Did I overbet the turn?

PokerStars Game #11604171479: Tournament #58622809, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2007/08/21 - 00:36:56 (ET)
Table '58622809 33' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: margolino999 (26503 in chips)
Seat 2: kinghk999 (7277 in chips)
Seat 3: WNYKU (22295 in chips)
Seat 4: molotov (65680 in chips)
Seat 5: cdnmoose07 (20462 in chips)
Seat 6: rickossem (34344 in chips)
Seat 7: omawho (7943 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: dunkmaster50 (23531 in chips)
Seat 9: bebert123 (49892 in chips)
margolino999: posts the ante 75
kinghk999: posts the ante 75
WNYKU: posts the ante 75
molotov: posts the ante 75
cdnmoose07: posts the ante 75
rickossem: posts the ante 75
omawho: posts the ante 75
dunkmaster50: posts the ante 75
bebert123: posts the ante 75
rickossem: posts small blind 400
omawho: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cdnmoose07 [6d 6s]
dunkmaster50: folds
bebert123: raises 800 to 1600
margolino999: folds
kinghk999: folds
WNYKU: folds
molotov: folds
cdnmoose07: calls 1600
rickossem: folds
omawho: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qd 6c 5c]
bebert123: bets 800
cdnmoose07: raises 1200 to 2000
bebert123: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [Qd 6c 5c] [Jh]
bebert123: checks
cdnmoose07: bets 9000
bebert123: folds
cdnmoose07 collected 9075 from pot
cdnmoose07: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9075 | Rake 0
Board [Qd 6c 5c Jh]
Seat 1: margolino999 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: kinghk999 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: WNYKU folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: molotov folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: cdnmoose07 (button) collected (9075)
Seat 6: rickossem (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: omawho (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: dunkmaster50 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: bebert123 folded on the Turn

specialK

Jh is a pretty safe card for your hand, here i would try to make a smaller bet to allow your opponent to make a mistake by calling where they think they have the right odds. for example if your opponent has a flush draw, they are about 1 in 5 to win on the river, so if you make a 1/5 of the pot bet you give them the right odds to call... if you bet 2/5 of the pot and give them incorrect odds to call but still close to the right odds to call maybe they will make a bad call, for this specific situation (ie your opponent has a flush draw) i think that a bet of about 3500-4000 is appropriate. it is really read dependent. i think about 3500 seems like a good bet to me, as your opponent seems fairly weak and may have something like AK where they could call your bet drawing nearly dead and not know it.

DrTyore

I agree with SpecialK

The turn bet is rather large, and from the fact that he min-raised preflop, and then made a min-continuation bet tells me that he's fairly scared of putting chips in. When he calls your flop raise (a good amount in IMO), it could be screaming "big hand", but I can't imagine what it would be unless it's set over set, and well, then you're just bound to bleed.

My guess is he's got a decent ace, maybe AK and is afraid to play it well, maybe something like A10. If this is the case, I'm not sure how much you could have bet to keep him on the line on the turn...

Mark

-ev

DrTyore wrote: »

When he calls your flop raise (a good amount in IMO)

Are you kidding? He had to call 1200 into a pot of almost 8000. He has to know you most likely have a monster and are not the least bit concerned about a call. What a great spot for a flush or straight draw to call.

DrTyore

I am actually serious based on the way he's played the hand, I'm not thinking he has much of a hand, nor does he have much of a draw.

He is very unlikely to have played any of the potential straight hands from an EP raise. I mentioned earlier the hands I figured him for, but let's say he's been scared off by the overcards to his pocket 7's through J's even. Him having to call 1200 into a pot of 7875 is still incorrect odds for two outs(6.57:1), further, it is also the poor odds for a runner - runner draw. He is obviously weak on the flop, and any large bet there will end the hand.

When I have a set, I want to be paid off. I think Moose put in (on the flop) pretty much all he can get. The turn bet was too much however, since the pot is now 9075, and the J is only "scary" if he is willing to draw for the gutshot with his AK / A10, so a bet of even 3000 is pretty tasty there for me - takes away the odds, and gives him 4:1.

Of course, if he had two clubs, we're not taking away his odds, but well, sometimes you gotta gambool

Mark

actyper

What are all your thoughts on a check here?

ScoobyD

What are all your thoughts on a check here?

On the turn?!? Fantastic play, if you hate money.

stpboy

weak set = oxymoron.

stp

Quimby

moose wrote: »

Did I overbet the turn?

I think so. You got greedy. His call on the flop raise appears to be a desperation to improve at decent odds (I think your flop raise was too low too). Opponent didn't show enough strength to warrant a bet that high on the turn. You're definitely ahead and the best hand your opponent could be drawing with would be AKc or ATc giving him 10 actual outs plus the dead overcard outs. Perhaps 1/3 of the pot.

I think a check on the turn is a risky option. It shows weakness and might get opponent to bluff, but he's not going to call a bet on the river if he misses so you're getting no value.

moose

As soon as he folded I didn't like it. I was happy to take the pot right there however. Even though I had a decent amount of chips, I was only ahead of two players at my table. With the pot I was in a much more comfortable chip position. What I didn't like about the bet was that it left me pot committed. Instead of 2/3 of my remaining stack, I should have fired about 1/2.

I had absolutely no read on the guy. He minraised UTG+1, he was either huge or playing a weak A or small PP. If I had a better box I could have tried a smaller turn bet. But without that box, when he flat called the flop, I was hoping a big PP. With the pot sized bet I was hoping I was representing Q with weak kicker and if he figured he had that beat then he would shove for me. Mostly in the end I think he was a player with air who was too dumb to give up on the flop because he had lots of chips and was probably folding to any turn bet. Just too bad I guess that the turn wasn't an A.

Kristy

I really don't like any streets here.

I think you have to fold/raise 6's with your stack for 1600 pre and no callers inbetween. I think you either have to raise a less fishy amount on the flop or call and hope for more money on the turn. (please no MUTB debate about the draws) Lastly when he checks to you on the turn, you need to gently cajole him into donking off a few more chips to your obv winner.

This is an $10+1, the subtlety of overbetting because he checks the turn is usually lost on players at this level- It will not elicit a call from some of the possible weaker holdings. You gave him too much credit-they're not usually as smart as you

moose

I am calling for set value against a donkey raise. My plan for this hand was to encourage more callers preflop. My backup plan without any callers was to take this hand down on the flop heads up. However I did hit my set, so I got to extract some extra value.

The 1.5x raise on the flop was to encourage a big hand to come back over the top.

Kristy

I see what you're saying, I just disagree.

I think you were puck and the BB is sitting out and doesn't have enough chips to pay off a set properly anyway.

So you're hoping the sb will call with a mediocre hand and you're not putting the raiser on much (re: your back up plan) ...so neither of them are likely to pay big$ to your set. I think the 2.5bb on the flop was a flukey bonus, but normally the manner in which you played this is not going to pay off, and you don't like most flops. I think playing it differently could be better overall.

moose

sb had 34000 in chips so he could easily pay me off and I will have position. Heads up I like any flop that doesn't have an A.

btw I am not saying played the hand great. I posted it for discussion and to give you my thoughts behind my play, however flawed that may be.

moose

Now I am going to be out of position here, so I gave it a Kristy whirl. Note: read on opponent is very tight. I have been very loose and aggressive.

PokerStars Game #11621809026: Tournament #58622833, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/08/21 - 23:34:05 (ET)
Table '58622833 15' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: CMAC666 (7375 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: Kurious2 (11850 in chips)
Seat 3: shaftbmw (2340 in chips)
Seat 4: g4ads (8020 in chips)
Seat 5: Wopples (7137 in chips)
Seat 6: cjd45021 (9415 in chips)
Seat 7: cdnmoose07 (13985 in chips)
Seat 8: lars_vegas (15875 in chips)
Seat 9: somfaw24 (5200 in chips)
cdnmoose07: posts small blind 100
lars_vegas: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to cdnmoose07 [5s 5d]
somfaw24: folds
CMAC666: folds
Kurious2: folds
shaftbmw: folds
g4ads: raises 400 to 600
Wopples: folds
cjd45021: folds
cdnmoose07: raises 1400 to 2000
lars_vegas: folds
g4ads: folds
cdnmoose07 collected 1400 from pot
cdnmoose07: doesn't show hand
CMAC666 has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1400 | Rake 0
Seat 1: CMAC666 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Kurious2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: shaftbmw folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: g4ads folded before Flop
Seat 5: Wopples folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: cjd45021 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: cdnmoose07 (small blind) collected (1400)
Seat 8: lars_vegas (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: somfaw24 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

actyper

ScoobyD wrote: »

On the turn?!? Fantastic play, if you hate money.

Depends on what you put him on though.

Some people have him on air, or not much of a hand. Will your opponent even call a 1/2 pot bet? If he does improve his hand it still most likely won't improve enough to beat your hand.

If you have him on a decent draw though, I agree a check is a weak play.