What is EV?
First of all, Hi, first post. 
Now... I've been reading alot of posts and I keep reading that EV+ EV-
EV of 3, etc.
I searched the forum but can't find any definition of it, could anyone explain please?
Thanks !
Now... I've been reading alot of posts and I keep reading that EV+ EV-
EV of 3, etc.
I searched the forum but can't find any definition of it, could anyone explain please?
Thanks !
Comments
quick google brought up: http://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-expected-value.php
EV stands for "expected Value"... generally it's a measure of whether it's a money-making (+EV) decision or not, and how much of a profit you can expect...
Mark
Playing with DrTyore is +EV.
Playing without shorts AND DrTyore is ++EV.
And BTW betting the colts this year is -EV.
*Unless Mario has A2.
Who has to be drunk you or me?
Thanks for the early replies though :P
Come play with us in Kitchener, Waterloo or Cambridge (just for you Moose). Then ALL QUESTIONS WILL BE ANSWERED AND PANTS WILL DROP!
You hold Ax of clubs and, on the turn, there are two clubs on the Board, you haven't hit any of it. An opponent makes a bet at you, and you're forced to make a decision; call his bet and hope to hit a club on the river, or fold now.
Making the correct move depends on the amount of money in the pot, how much the bet is, and what the chances are of having a better hand than your opponent on the river.
To keep things easy, we'll say that only the flush will give you a better hand, which will happen roughly 1/4 of the time.
Senario 1:
There is $200 in the pot, and your opponent bets $10. If you call, 1 time out of 4, you hit the flush and win $210 (the pot, plus his bet). 3 times out of 4 you'll lose the $10 you just bet as you'll have to throw your hand away if you don't hit.
If you sum these together; ($220 - $10 - $10 - $10), you get $190. This number is the expected value of the call. Said another way, everytime you make this call, you expect to win $190, over the course of many, many hands. (Obviously, you'll never win exactly $190, but the average will be $190 per hand).
To extend this, if you're in this exact senario 8 times, you will have made roughly (8 X $190 = $1,520) Because you're making money here, this is a "Postive Expected Value" play, often shortformed to +EV. Because this is a VERY +EV play, people will add some + signs to indicate this.
To summarize, calling a $10 into a $200 pot, holding the nut flush draw on the turn is +++EV.
Senario 2:
There is $200 in the pot and your opponent bets $150. Should you call?
This time, you'll win $350 1 in every 4 times, but lose $150 3 times out of 4. Adding this up, we see the Expected Value of this call is, $350 - ($150 x 3) = -$100. So, every time you're in this senario and make the call, you lose and average of $100 per hand over the long run.
To summarize, calling $150 into a pot of $200, holding the nut flush draw on the turn is -EV.
Obviously, I'm over simplifing things here. (you Ace may be a real out, increasing your odds, you may be playing with a player that will pay off an additional river bet if you hit, hitting the nut flush may not be enough if the board pairs, etc., etc.) But this is a good starting point.
So, when people say situations are +EV or -EV, they're referring to situations you're in that will either make you money or lose you money over a long period of time.
Nice post Zithal. I was writting one at the same time.
EV an Example
Lets say that you have A2 hearts and the board is Qh 8h 4s 10d. There is $1000 in the pot and your opponent bets his last $200. The only draw out there is a flush and you hold the nut flush draw. Lets also for our example say that you know your opponent holds Qs 8s for two pair because he turned his hand up accidently. If any heart hits the river you win.
Lets look at the math:
You have 9 outs to make your flush out of 45 cards left in the deck.
9/45= 20% exactly
Therefore 20 times of 100 you will win the $1000 in the pot plus his $200 turn bet for $1200.
80 times of 100 you will lose your $200 call on the turn.
20 X $1200 = $24,000 the times you win
80 X ($200)= ($16,000) the times you lose
$24,000+($16,000) = $8000
divide $8000 by 100 times and you get $80
So your expected value (EV) is $80.
EV is basically a mathematical average of all outcomes of a certain play made at the tables. It can be applied to all plays that you can make at the table.
And BC is kinda on the other side of Canada from where I live so that would be one hell of a drive to play a game of poker
Very good explanation as usual Rob (and Cadillac also). Just wanted to point out that you'll hit your flush on the river 1/5 of the time, not 1/4 (19.57% or about 4 to 1 against). So 1 time out of 5 you'll hit your flush, and 4 times out of five you won't and have to fold. But in your example, that's still a +++EV situation!
If it will make you money in the long run, then it is EV+
If you will lose money in the long run, then it is EV-
EV holds true to real life situations also:
Example: Shouting "YAY BLOWJOB WEEK!" when it's your wife's time of the month is definitely EV-.
PokerStars Game #11538376615: Tournament #57909153, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/08/17 - 14:52:44 (ET)
Table '57909153 210' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Caspian21 (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: EKOOTJE (2940 in chips)
Seat 3: Moosedebator (4340 in chips)
Seat 4: hnki (4910 in chips)
Seat 5: mercury7077 (2885 in chips)
Seat 6: InsaneGuy (2885 in chips)
Seat 7: Wolfe4Heismn (6930 in chips)
Seat 8: ramcos2002 (3705 in chips)
Seat 9: lindseytran (1305 in chips) is sitting out
Moosedebator: posts small blind 25
hnki: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to InsaneGuy [5s As]
mercury7077: folds
InsaneGuy: calls 50
Wolfe4Heismn: folds
ramcos2002: calls 50
lindseytran: folds
Caspian21: folds
EKOOTJE: folds
Moosedebator: calls 25
hnki: checks
*** FLOP *** [Qs 2s 4h]
Moosedebator: checks
hnki: bets 50
InsaneGuy: raises 100 to 150
ramcos2002: calls 150
Moosedebator: folds
hnki: calls 100
*** TURN *** [Qs 2s 4h] [5c]
hnki: checks
InsaneGuy: checks
ramcos2002: bets 400
hnki: folds
InsaneGuy: calls 400
*** RIVER *** [Qs 2s 4h 5c] [5d]
InsaneGuy: bets 1400
ramcos2002: calls 1400
*** SHOW DOWN ***
InsaneGuy: shows [5s As] (three of a kind, Fives)
ramcos2002: shows [2d 2h] (a full house, Deuces full of Fives)
ramcos2002 collected 4250 from pot
Was it played well ?
His smooth call on the flop could give you cause for concern but you are huge there. You might want to consider raising more on that flop to really narrow their hands down but I'm not sure if that is possible in a low stakes tourney anyway.
Raising in a multi-way pot esp. w/o position on a draw, in a small pot where you never had the lead in the first place is a really, really, really, bad idea. You must really hate chips to do this.