Analysis of Fallsview WPT Sats.
I keep hearing grumblings from people over the lack of play in the Fallsview WPT Sat's so I wanted to see what the fuss is all about. First a note about my estimates below. I'm using a neat tool that a friend developed which estimates remaining players given a specific tournament format. I'm interested in hearing from either Fallsview or 13Cards if these estimates are close. All estimates are for the *average* time that a tournament will take. Obviously, some will end sooner and others later.
To offer some comparison, I've found the schedules for Foxwoods (other casinos I've checked don't seem to have this info online). I've also included some recommendations on how to increase play without affecting the bottom line that much.
All information on formats is taken from the Fallsview website. (http://www.fallsviewcasinoresort.com/?SiteID=99+Download&PageID=WPT_Structures+pdf)
(Aside: That's a bizarre blind schedule. The jumps in levels 11, 12, 13 are off because the jump from 12 to 13 is less than the jump from 11 to 12. You need to either insert a 1000/2000(300) level between 11 and 12, or adjust level 12 downward. Also, the calculation of antes is inconsistent. Ideally you pick a ceiling for the antes (commonly either 1/3 or 1/4 of the SB) and stick to it. For instance, Levels 6 and 9 are too high, and the rest are inconsistent at putting the ceiling at 1/3 and 1/4. Just a little messy is all.)
Step 1: ($90 - 1000 chips/10 min blinds) Total juice: $170
Estimated average end time: 40 min
Estimated final level: 150-300(50)
Step 2: ($640 - 2500 chips / 20 min blinds) Total juice: $660
Estimated average end time: 3.5 hours
Estimated end level: 800-1600(300)
Step A: ($160 - 1200 chips / 15 minutes) Total juice: $240
Estimated average end time: 1.25 hours
Estimated average end level: 200-400(75)
Step B: ($1200 - 3000 chips / 30 minutes) Total juice: $500
Estimated average end time: 4 hours
Estimated average end level: 500-1000(200)
Analysis and Recommendations
Step 1:
The players would do better to draw high card to determine a winner. Obviously this is your lowest buy-in, least juice tournament so you're not expecting much here. A simple addition would be to extend blinds to 15 minutes which will add about 20-25 minutes to the tournament.
Step 2:
This format is just broken. For $660, I'd like to see, at least, another hour added to the tournament. I know you have to support two tables, but I doubt two tables last more than 60-70 minutes. I'd bump the starting chips up to 3000 and increase the blind levels to 30 minutes. This should add another hour/hour and a half to the tournament and give players more play in the early rounds before the blinds get too high.
Step A:
Given the juice, I'd like to see the tournament approach closer to the two hour mark. Increasing the starting stack to 1500 and increasing the length of the blinds to 20 minute, should clock this in at around 2 hours.
Step B:
This tournament doesn't have the most total juice but it has the most play. I wouldn't change much, but I think you could bump up the starting stack to 5000 and only see an increase of 1/2-1 hour to play. The people that are dropping $1,200 on a game of poker are likely the same ones that'll sit in your highest cash games. My inclination would be to really extend the amount of play per dollar-of-juice for these people and treat them well. I would be very tempted to increase the juice and really increase the play. For a $1,200 entry I think you could easily get closer to $75 per person, and add another hour or so on top of what I've suggested to the format.
Foxwoods:
Here's a list of the games that compare to the above.
Blind Schedule: Differences in the schedule compared to Fallsview are that they've taken out the 150-300 and 500-1000 levels, so the schedule at Fallsview is a little more gradual.
$120 SnG (2000 chips / 15 min blinds) - Total juice: $200
Estimated average end time: 1.25 hours
Estimated average end level: 300-600(75)
Notes: Taken exchange into account, compares closely with Step A.
$550 SnG (5000 chips / 15 min blinds) - Total juice: $500
Estimated average end time: 2 hours
Estimated average end level: 800-1600(200)
Notes: Simply awful. Comparable juice to Step B, but a format that completes in half the time. Definate props to Fallsview for a MUCH better high end tournament.
$230 MTT (10000 chips / 20 min blinds) - Total juice: $600
(I'm going to assume that 20 people sign up to compare it to Step 2)
Estimated average end time: 4.5 hours
Estimated end level: 4000-8000(500)
Notes: I think this really demonstrates how broken the Step 2 tournament is. Comparable juice with an hour extra play.
Conclusions:
I'm glad to see some improvement from last year's formats, but I think there's still room for improvement.
Step B, not surprisingly, is the best value for the money and adding a significant amount of starting chips won't affect the final level. Comparisons to Foxwoods really demonstrates the added play that this tournament has.
Step 1 and A are crap-shoots, but they're also the lowest buy-in games available. My suggestions don't change this fact, but I'd try an add a few extra minutes of play for the players without extending the tournament that much. Very comparable to Foxwoods.
I strongly dislike the Step 2 format. This one is in bad need of adjustment to get some value out of it. It easily needs another 1 to 1 1/2 hours to make it playable. Comparisons to Foxwoods really shows off the issues here.
In summary, a bit of a mixed review. Fallsview is doing some things well and a few things not to well. I hope they continue to tweak tournaments to walk that delicate line between meeting their bottom line and giving players value for their money.
To offer some comparison, I've found the schedules for Foxwoods (other casinos I've checked don't seem to have this info online). I've also included some recommendations on how to increase play without affecting the bottom line that much.
All information on formats is taken from the Fallsview website. (http://www.fallsviewcasinoresort.com/?SiteID=99+Download&PageID=WPT_Structures+pdf)
(Aside: That's a bizarre blind schedule. The jumps in levels 11, 12, 13 are off because the jump from 12 to 13 is less than the jump from 11 to 12. You need to either insert a 1000/2000(300) level between 11 and 12, or adjust level 12 downward. Also, the calculation of antes is inconsistent. Ideally you pick a ceiling for the antes (commonly either 1/3 or 1/4 of the SB) and stick to it. For instance, Levels 6 and 9 are too high, and the rest are inconsistent at putting the ceiling at 1/3 and 1/4. Just a little messy is all.)
Step 1: ($90 - 1000 chips/10 min blinds) Total juice: $170
Estimated average end time: 40 min
Estimated final level: 150-300(50)
Step 2: ($640 - 2500 chips / 20 min blinds) Total juice: $660
Estimated average end time: 3.5 hours
Estimated end level: 800-1600(300)
Step A: ($160 - 1200 chips / 15 minutes) Total juice: $240
Estimated average end time: 1.25 hours
Estimated average end level: 200-400(75)
Step B: ($1200 - 3000 chips / 30 minutes) Total juice: $500
Estimated average end time: 4 hours
Estimated average end level: 500-1000(200)
Analysis and Recommendations
Step 1:
The players would do better to draw high card to determine a winner. Obviously this is your lowest buy-in, least juice tournament so you're not expecting much here. A simple addition would be to extend blinds to 15 minutes which will add about 20-25 minutes to the tournament.
Step 2:
This format is just broken. For $660, I'd like to see, at least, another hour added to the tournament. I know you have to support two tables, but I doubt two tables last more than 60-70 minutes. I'd bump the starting chips up to 3000 and increase the blind levels to 30 minutes. This should add another hour/hour and a half to the tournament and give players more play in the early rounds before the blinds get too high.
Step A:
Given the juice, I'd like to see the tournament approach closer to the two hour mark. Increasing the starting stack to 1500 and increasing the length of the blinds to 20 minute, should clock this in at around 2 hours.
Step B:
This tournament doesn't have the most total juice but it has the most play. I wouldn't change much, but I think you could bump up the starting stack to 5000 and only see an increase of 1/2-1 hour to play. The people that are dropping $1,200 on a game of poker are likely the same ones that'll sit in your highest cash games. My inclination would be to really extend the amount of play per dollar-of-juice for these people and treat them well. I would be very tempted to increase the juice and really increase the play. For a $1,200 entry I think you could easily get closer to $75 per person, and add another hour or so on top of what I've suggested to the format.
Foxwoods:
Here's a list of the games that compare to the above.
Blind Schedule: Differences in the schedule compared to Fallsview are that they've taken out the 150-300 and 500-1000 levels, so the schedule at Fallsview is a little more gradual.
$120 SnG (2000 chips / 15 min blinds) - Total juice: $200
Estimated average end time: 1.25 hours
Estimated average end level: 300-600(75)
Notes: Taken exchange into account, compares closely with Step A.
$550 SnG (5000 chips / 15 min blinds) - Total juice: $500
Estimated average end time: 2 hours
Estimated average end level: 800-1600(200)
Notes: Simply awful. Comparable juice to Step B, but a format that completes in half the time. Definate props to Fallsview for a MUCH better high end tournament.
$230 MTT (10000 chips / 20 min blinds) - Total juice: $600
(I'm going to assume that 20 people sign up to compare it to Step 2)
Estimated average end time: 4.5 hours
Estimated end level: 4000-8000(500)
Notes: I think this really demonstrates how broken the Step 2 tournament is. Comparable juice with an hour extra play.
Conclusions:
I'm glad to see some improvement from last year's formats, but I think there's still room for improvement.
Step B, not surprisingly, is the best value for the money and adding a significant amount of starting chips won't affect the final level. Comparisons to Foxwoods really demonstrates the added play that this tournament has.
Step 1 and A are crap-shoots, but they're also the lowest buy-in games available. My suggestions don't change this fact, but I'd try an add a few extra minutes of play for the players without extending the tournament that much. Very comparable to Foxwoods.
I strongly dislike the Step 2 format. This one is in bad need of adjustment to get some value out of it. It easily needs another 1 to 1 1/2 hours to make it playable. Comparisons to Foxwoods really shows off the issues here.
In summary, a bit of a mixed review. Fallsview is doing some things well and a few things not to well. I hope they continue to tweak tournaments to walk that delicate line between meeting their bottom line and giving players value for their money.
Comments
Good luck to all that go and hopefully a few forum players pick up seats to the main event.
Played 15 of the $160 tournies so far and have come away with 6 - $1200 vouchers.. basically I was going to collect as many as I could then wait until mid-september and play as many 12's as I could each Saturday trying to win the 10K seats.
- WPT leagues: In the one I joined, I was among the top 3 chip leaders for their WPT seat championship after the dinner break, but did not make it to Day 2 this season. A player who has played at the West Side Poker Club won the $10,300 seat. The same league is currently holding step satellites.
- Bar tours: I made it to the top 12 of one tour's championship where the winner got the $10,300 seat. Pirana Poker Tour's upcoming championship might also offer some sort of WPT seat.
(oh and nobody say OJ Simpson or point to Barry Bonds!)
In this case 'total juice' means rake from all players combined.
/g2
I live around Hamilton so... The buy-ins at Bradford and K-W are in my range but are too far. The one at Mississauga is too high but it's close.
Thanks. I googled the leagues and tours you talked about but didn't get much info from the sites. Could you give me a brief summary of how they work and if there are any in the Hamilton area?
Please feel free to start an "Analysis of Non-Fallsview WPT Sats" thread. I do not dispute that home game sats will provide far more value, but I'd like to keep this thread focused on Fallsview stuff. Thanks!!
As for the WPT satellites, I posted a detailed analysis of all six satellites last year. The only difference this year for Fallsview Casino is the replacement of the 25/25 blind level with 100/200, and adding 200-500 chips to compensate.
Step 1: 19% rake
- 10,000 chips in play
- If you don't play a hand, your 1000 chips will be blinded out in less than 50 minutes.
- Patience Factor < 0, Skill Level 0
- Estimated amount of actual poker play (excluding the time of being summoned to the table then waiting a long time for the first hand to be dealt): 50-60 minutes.
- Average end level: 6th, 200/400+75. My estimates differ from Zithal's.
Step A: 15% rake
- 12,000 chips in play
- Blind-off time for 1200 chips: 1 hour & 9 minutes (or less).
- Patience Factor = 1.3, Skill Level 0
- Estimated amount of play: 60-70 minutes
- Average end level: 6th, 200/400+75
Step 2: 5% rake
- 50,000 chips in play; 20 players
- Blind-off time for 2500 chips: 1 hour & 47 minutes
- Patience Factor = 3.2, Skill Level 2
- Estimated amount of play (excluding breaks): 3 hr & 20 min - 3 hr & 40 min
- Average end level: 12th, 800/1600+300
Step B: 4% rake
- 30,000 chips in play
- Blind-off time for 3000 chips: 2 hr & 29 minutes
- Patience Factor = 6.2, Skill Level 4
- Estimated amount of play: 4 1/2 - 5 hours
- Average end level: 10th, 600/1200+200
- The best satellite to play among the four.
For comparison purposes, here are the statistics for The_Game's first home game satellite:
- 0% rake instead of 19%
- $75 buy-in instead of $90; 1st place won $650 and 2nd won $100
- 10,000 starting chips instead of 1000
- 25-minute blinds instead of 10
- Highest Skill Level of 6 instead of 0
- Amount of play: almost 5 hours
Any specifics I should be looking out for, I haven't been to Fallsview in a while but I just wanted to know what the field of 20 was made up of, (IE Fallsview regulars, etc)
Or do you think it just makes more sense to play the 1200 on Sunday?
Usually 4-5 regulars in the 640 tournies, the 1200's are hit and miss sometimes as far as regulars, last saturdays players were sort of brutal in my opinion which I didn't mind. I will be up there friday to play the 640 (evening tourney probably) so if you're planning on going let me know and maybe we'll grab a drink.
As I've said in the past, the $90 is certainly comparable to Bingo....or maybe Keno....or maybe flipping, but I believe keeping a buy-in under $100 is an important factor. It worked last year for Soren, he played one $90 satellite only, and walked away with $1.3 million+. It's a shot at glory for $90, and you still get roughly 1+ hours of play for a $10,000 seat. It's a "feeder" level satellite which keeps the larger ones moving strong and gives everyone their shot.
Your time estimations are on the low side for the average, but not too far off. For the low sats you are about 25% short in time, the higher sats you are about right, Blondefish's time analysis is slightly closer. As for percentage of rake, it will always be high on low-limit tournaments of any kind. As a comical note, I was in Vegas a couple of months ago and O'Shea's had a $30+$15 tournament. The Step 2 is still basically half the buy-in of the $1200 satellite, the juice has to be higher because it is two tables. One table does break down, but it is still essentially tied up from a business standpoint while it waits for the next satellite.
Educated players who take the time to do analysis such as this will play the home/underground satellites as they can obviously offer a much better value. We simply can't compete with "other" non-regulated satellites and tournaments from a business standpoint, but we certainly attempt to offer a fair and decent value for a casino satellite and/or tournament.
I wish everyone well in their satellites, whichever ones they choose.
Again, kudos to Zithal and Blondefish.
Zithal, I would love to see your program. A slight tweak and it should be bang on. Run the Main Event through the program as well, I'd be interested to see where it sas it will finish compared to last year.
I'd love to take credit, but I can't. The program belongs to a friend of mine, and I'll wait for him to come forward with it.
In it, there's an "agressive factor" setting, where you can numerically estimate the agressiveness of a tournament. This will affect the running time, so I'm guessing it should be a little lower.
Do you have a link to last year's blind schedule and number of entrants? I'm curious what it will report too.
Oh...
I cheated a bit on this one. They don't have MTT Step sats, so I grabbed one of their regular MTTs that compared closely (rake) and ran the number if 20 people had shown up for it. Probably not a completely fair comparison and I should have taken it out.
I qualified for the main event last year by playing 4 Step As, and then 1 Step B. I told everyone I know that as long as you can get through the Step A minefield, your shot in the Step B is fantastic. Good starting stack, long levels, good mix of good and bad players.
I'll be back to try again for sure. I hope this event becomes an annual thing at Fallsview for years to come.
AK
Yeah I should be heading up but the only problem is I will be going to Dragonfly in the evening so I don't know if I can hit the evening game.
I have spent too much time in vegas and online....I need to get into live game form again
I'm heading down on Sunday to play in the $160 sats.
Last year I got 3rd in all 3 I played.
But I've been practicing and I think I can take at least 1 down this year.
GGme
What time were you playing? I played in a couple myself and only got another replay out of it.
No problem really, just a precaution! Could be scary if someone else is rewarded the NAPC seat you won...haha.