Reads on opponents???
At what point do you start to trust your reads over odds? Daniel N. talks about this in his WSOP blogs. The hand was his undoing hand in the ME where he said he should have been able to fold even though odds dictated otherwise.
There have been situations where I have folded based on a read but was giving my opponents too much credit and there have been hands where I was certain I was beat but called anyway. So I know that there isn't a perfect formula but I would love some input here.
There have been situations where I have folded based on a read but was giving my opponents too much credit and there have been hands where I was certain I was beat but called anyway. So I know that there isn't a perfect formula but I would love some input here.
Comments
The only problem is you are left with a very short stack, and you better be good at playing it.
I can usually get gut feels on opponents after a short time if they are being consistent. While I will use my gut feel in decision making for these players I will weigh it into the decision making process only so much and will usually err on the side of odds. The stronger the suspicion the more I will weigh it in.
With enough time I can sometimes get real solid reads on some players. When I have a real solid read I will weigh it heavily into my decisions.
For example I read a player last night well in order to win a pot in a tournament.
He was BB I was SB.
Everyone else folded to me.
I looked down at Q 4 off and called.
He checked.
Now I had been playing this guy a couple hours and decided a few things about him:
-he knows what position is and how to play it
-he knows standard betting
-he plays a structured game
-he is a good enough player to know I had been taking advantage of a few people at the table thus far with the right raise at the right time
Flop comes 4 8 J
-I check
-he checks
Turn comes A
-I make a standard 'bet the threat' of 200
-he comes over the top for 700 more
Because of my read on him I decided I didn't think he had anything. He knew I was making a standard move and could not put me on the A because I did not raise preflop. I had low pair... with all the hands out there that beat me I had to put him on absolutely nothing. But because of my read on him and how he had been playing I did put him on nothing and that he was making a play on my too obvious play. I threw all odds out the window and just played my read.
-I called
River comes with a low diamond making 3 diamonds out there.
-I checked as the 3rd diamond made me a little timid
-eventually he checked too saying afterwards he did not follow through due to the 3rd diamond
He turns over two crap cards that never caught and I turn over my low pair of 4s to take the pot down. He looked at me questioning and I told him flat out I put him on nothing making a play at my play.
On a later play I used my strong read on a different player to lull him into a trap that doubled me up and took almost all his chips. For this player I had a strong read on:
-when he had a real hand
-when he did not have anything
-when he wanted to play but did not have a real hand
-he lkes the spotlight and would jump at a chance to take down the table bully
When he called from mid position I read in his physical actions that he just wanted to play. I made a decent raise preflop and he called. I then made a continuation bet that would read like a test and possible take down attempt. He called. Then after the turn I checked to posture like my test failed and I wasn't getting any more involved. He then moved in for the kill going all in for about double the pot. I quickly called and crippled him.
In that case I had the winning hand the whole time and was using my read to maximize my return.
Unfortunately there's no magic formula. Hands down your best weapon is experience and no one can pass much of that along to you. Please don't read my hand as any kind of bragging or uber experience... that's not it at all. I am just giving a couple examples of recent times I used reads well. I didn't list any of the times from last night my reads were wrong
The other part is watching television. Try watching multiple hands a single player has played. Now, is there anything he/she does differently when they are on a draw/bluff/monster. They may be extremely subtle and difficult to spot. Howver DN does say that he watches a ton of poker just to figure out reads.
The only trouble is that poker's much more fun when you're not "working". You can chat it up, banter etc. when you're not in a hand. But if you're watching and not talking, you'll learn a ton.
Just a thought.
Cheers
Magi
As multiple WSOP bracelet winner Bill Chen explained in his book, playing mathematically is more accurate as far as incorporating reads than playing by just "feel."
And watching TV does help. You will see a huge difference in peoples tells watching the WPT vs watching the Ultimate Poker Challenge players.
That is why branding is such a huge part of marketing. It is why every movie these days has two bloody sequels.
Poker is the same. Most people bet their hands the same way. Over and over and again and again. Pay attention to how they play their hands and use this information.
Like Magi said, it is easy to do, you just have to do it!
How sure do you have to be in your read to fold when odds dictate calling?
the latter is obviously the best kind of player there is. phil ivey definitely falls into this category as i've seen him make some insane plays (the one that comes to mind the most was during a wpt event (i believe) where his opponent bet the flop, he raised with nothing, his opponent reraised, ivey moved all in with NOTHING and took down the pot - it was quite impressive).
i think the difficulty comes in to play not whether one should act on reads or act on the math, because i think all good poker players should act on reads for the most part. the difficulty is correctly making the read, and that only comes from constant experience and practice. and simply, you should trust your reads when you are consistently making good reads. will you be wrong sometimes - yes. if you practice will you improve - most definitely.