Odds to call the following hand.
For Small Stakes Hold'em, I'd like to know if anyone's calculated the correct odds to call the following situation.
The senario: You call 9Th in late position. The flop comes J23 with one heart, which means you have three to the flush and three to a straight. Small blind bets and everyone calls.
What kind of odds do you need here to call to the possible (though unlikely) runner-runner straight/flush.
Last night this situation came up in 0.50/1.00 Limit. I had one raiser in early postion with 4 other callers and I was mostly sure (based on previous plays), that both blinds would call. I was half right and the above flop was seen with $6.25 in the pot (SB folded). Big Blind bet 0.50 and and the other four players called it to me. With the extra $2.50, there pot was now at $8.75 giving me 18.5 to 1 odds on my call. Those odds seemed good, esp. considering I'd have an easy fold if a heart, Q or 8 didn't fall on the turn, so I bet.
The turn was a Q, one bettor for $1 and it was folded to me. With the extra buck, I was now getting just over 11 to 1 on my call. (compared with, I believe, the odds of me completing the double-ended straight draw is 5 to 1?), so I called and the 8 came (no flush possiblity) giving me the nuts. His river bet was raised by me and he called losing to my runner-runner straight.
Did I have the odds to call the $0.50 bet on the flop? (Should I have even called the pre-flop raise... I'll often call mid-level suited connectors if I get 4 or 5 callers in front of me.)
The senario: You call 9Th in late position. The flop comes J23 with one heart, which means you have three to the flush and three to a straight. Small blind bets and everyone calls.
What kind of odds do you need here to call to the possible (though unlikely) runner-runner straight/flush.
Last night this situation came up in 0.50/1.00 Limit. I had one raiser in early postion with 4 other callers and I was mostly sure (based on previous plays), that both blinds would call. I was half right and the above flop was seen with $6.25 in the pot (SB folded). Big Blind bet 0.50 and and the other four players called it to me. With the extra $2.50, there pot was now at $8.75 giving me 18.5 to 1 odds on my call. Those odds seemed good, esp. considering I'd have an easy fold if a heart, Q or 8 didn't fall on the turn, so I bet.
The turn was a Q, one bettor for $1 and it was folded to me. With the extra buck, I was now getting just over 11 to 1 on my call. (compared with, I believe, the odds of me completing the double-ended straight draw is 5 to 1?), so I called and the 8 came (no flush possiblity) giving me the nuts. His river bet was raised by me and he called losing to my runner-runner straight.
Did I have the odds to call the $0.50 bet on the flop? (Should I have even called the pre-flop raise... I'll often call mid-level suited connectors if I get 4 or 5 callers in front of me.)
Comments
Runner Runner straight is worth 1.
Perfect Perfect (Straight flush) isn't worth caculating.
Just something else I noticed... You aren't supposed to add your call into the pot to justify pot odds..
You are getting 17.5 to 1 to call...
Just thought I'd add that you're talking open ended runner runner straight. If it's a gutshot (flop TQx you got A7 needing K then J (ace might not be live)) the odds of hitting it is like 1 in 62.5, which's 1.6 percent I believe, which isn't 1 out
Cheers,
Guts
Hmm.. I took Carson's word that a backdoor flush was 2 outs. Apparently, it's wrong in his book.. so 1.5ish is correct.
Carsons post on RGP
You will make a hand 8.33% of the time or just over 1 in 12. you need 11 to 1 odds to call the flop. Depending on the turn your odds vary...
- Queen or 8 of Hearts (Best)... You now have 15 outs... 9 hearts for the flush + 6 cards for the open-ended straight draw. Odds needed to call the turn... 2 to 1.
- King or 7 of Hearts (2nd Best)... You have 12 outs... 9 hearts + 3 cards for the inside straight. Odds to call... 2.83 to 1.
- Any other Heart (3rd Best)... Leaves you with 9 outs... Odds to call... 4.11 to 1.
- Queen or 8 (non-heart)... 8 outs for the open-ended Straight draw... Oddsto call... 4.75 to 1.
- King or 7 (non-heart)... 4 outs... Odds to call... 10.5 to 1.
Remember.... that the 1 in 12 times you do make that hand... it will be the nut less than a quarter of the time!!