A Hand for Analysis

NurseHoliday

Here is a hand from a recent sitngo that I played in - I think it will lead to some interesting discussions and I certainly am looking forward to seeing how others would have played it. All responses are appreciated.

Seat 1: rawisy2j10 (1420 in chips)
Seat 2: OKCsOWN (1025 in chips)
Seat 3: #1Roley (1410 in chips)
Seat 4: DJNate (2000 in chips)
Seat 5: NurseHoliday (1190 in chips)
Seat 6: JillBo (1200 in chips)
Seat 7: marksgal (1030 in chips)
Seat 8: 21diamond12 (1890 in chips)
Seat 9: got2winn (2335 in chips)
DJNate: posts small blind 25
NurseHoliday: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NurseHoliday [7d As]
JillBo: calls 50
marksgal: folds
21diamond12: folds
got2winn: calls 50
rawisy2j10: folds
OKCsOWN: folds
#1Roley: folds
DJNate: calls 25
NurseHoliday: checks
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h 6s]
DJNate: checks
NurseHoliday: bets 100
JillBo: calls 100
got2winn: raises 100 to 200
DJNate: folds
NurseHoliday: calls 100
JillBo: raises 950 to 1150 and is all-in
got2winn: calls 950
NurseHoliday:

So what would you do if you were me - go all in or fold?

vinsanity

I think its a very easy fold, especially at this point of the tournament where you'll still have 900 chips left. you've got 6 outs at most, I doubt an ace would help you.

Irah

It is no question, FOLD.

You can wait and be patient, youll find a lot of better places to to put all your money in.

Big J

Fold, then slap yourself for putting in the 100 bet in the first place.

micr0be

definately i would have folded..no need to risk here.

BigChrisEl

micr0be wrote:

definately i would have folded..no need to risk here.

I am always constantly surprised by the amount of people that love to risk there money.

Case in point I was playing a Sit N’ Go tournament:

Blinds are 5 &10. Starting chips for everyone is 800.

First hand; I am in mid to late position, I’m dealt a pair of 9’s. So I decided to raise to 50.
The person after me re-raises to 100, the others fold to the button who calls, and all others fold to me which I decide to see the extra 50.

Flop K, 9, 7 rainbow.

Being I’m UTG I bet 200,

I get an immediate re-rise to 500 (so that is 600 of his total starting 800 in the pot), the Button calls, so I’m looking at the 200 chips left to the other players and my 3 nines (only a pair of Kings beats me and they both can’t have’em) I decide to go all-in. Both players call.

Play after me has AK, the button KJ. Nothing comes out after and I triple up on the first hand.

What surprised me was the amount of risk these guys where will to take on the first hand with a pair of kings? I can never figure out who would risk so much on pairs so earlier on.

Chugs

Fold!

BBC Z

Let pot odds give you a reason to fold, not a reason to call.

professor

I'd fold. JillBo might be making a move but got2winn has called. One of them has you beat, maybe with two-pair and the flush draw, in which
case you've only got 6 outs twice to hit the straight, and there are
9 outs twice to make the flush. You've still got plenty of chips, and
lots of time to find a better spot.

wader

vinsanity wrote:

I think its a very easy fold, especially at this point of the tournament where you'll still have 900 chips left. you've got 6 outs at most, I doubt an ace would help you.

I agree it's an easy fold, but I'm just curious, are you saying 6 outs because someone has allready made there straight?

Tilter

Big J wrote:

Fold, then slap yourself for putting in the 100 bet in the first place.

Same, maybe a 100 bet in LP or if 3 see the flop. But yeah, fold.

vinsanity

Wader, I going on the assumption that he has 6 safe outs as the 5 or 10 of hearts opens up a flush possibility. Even if hits, the hand is very susceptible to a redraw, maybe against a 2 pr or trips, or flush draw.

Chris

NurseHoliday wrote:

Here is a hand from a recent sitngo that I played in - I think it will lead to some interesting discussions and I certainly am looking forward to seeing how others would have played it. All responses are appreciated.

Seat 1: rawisy2j10 (1420 in chips)
Seat 2: OKCsOWN (1025 in chips)
Seat 3: #1Roley (1410 in chips)
Seat 4: DJNate (2000 in chips)
Seat 5: NurseHoliday (1190 in chips)
Seat 6: JillBo (1200 in chips)
Seat 7: marksgal (1030 in chips)
Seat 8: 21diamond12 (1890 in chips)
Seat 9: got2winn (2335 in chips)
DJNate: posts small blind 25
NurseHoliday: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NurseHoliday [7d As]
JillBo: calls 50
marksgal: folds
21diamond12: folds
got2winn: calls 50
rawisy2j10: folds
OKCsOWN: folds
#1Roley: folds
DJNate: calls 25
NurseHoliday: checks
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h 6s]
DJNate: checks
NurseHoliday: bets 100
JillBo: calls 100
got2winn: raises 100 to 200
DJNate: folds
NurseHoliday: calls 100
JillBo: raises 950 to 1150 and is all-in
got2winn: calls 950
NurseHoliday:

So what would you do if you were me - go all in or fold?

The blinds are 25/50 (you have 1,100+ in chips) and you are considering going all-in with 8* outs? Why? If someone is playing JT they have a higher straight draw. Not to mention the flush draw on the board that you have NO part of, and the fact that with a 7 kicker your ace is TRASH.

Seems way too risky to me. I wouldn't even think twice.

ScottyZ

It's an easy fold to the all-in bet.

Your opponents have to have unbelievably poor hands to make your odds of winning the hand in the ballpark of the 3 or 4 to 1 you are being offered from the pot:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=513023

More realistically, you're in the neighborhood of a 7 or 8 to 1 shot:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=513029

With the strength they are showing, your opponents are currently winning, and (more importantly) are going to have significant re-draws.

As for betting out 100 on the flop, this play is not out of this world, but I probably would have checked myself. You've really got to think that you have some chance of winning the pot here if you're going to go ahead and bet out. But 100 doesn't seem like it will "get the job done"^TM with that many players in. For a bluff, I'd say pick a better spot when you have a worse hand.

I think that calling the extra 100 is reasonable. It's *very* unusual that you ran into an all-in limp-reraise from the remaining opponent. I can't think of *any* hand I would play as JillBo has played it here.

ScottyZ

NurseHoliday

So, first off, I did fold - what, am I a moron? Thanks for reassuring me it was the play (unanimous I believe).
However, it really tempted me...
As it turns out, both of the other players had A 9 offsuit - giving them top pair top kicker, but no flush draws and just one 9 left to make a set.
It turns out we were all virtually 33% on the hand after the flop - which means a call would have been warranted. And of course the river brought the 5 to make a straight had i stuck around.
So scotty was right and wrong - my opponents were winning, but they had little in the way of redraws. And my opponents actually had very strong hands, but I was still even money to win the pot with each of them....so....
analysing hands after the fact can lead to faulty conclusions, and I think the fold was correct. However, a few points to ponder - A 9 would be a logical hand to put an opponent on (putting both on it is a stretch). And in my experience, in these sitngos, people shoot in with anything so how can you assume they have strong holdings? I guess it boils down to survival...stay safe and survive..but I could have been in a big lead with that pot.

It illustrates the value of being able to accurately put people on a hand - of course it was so early I had no chance of doing so in this instance.

Thanks for the help.

NurseHoliday

ScottyZ wrote:

It's an easy fold to the all-in bet.

As for betting out 100 on the flop, this play is not out of this world, but I probably would have checked myself. You've really got to think that you have some chance of winning the pot here if you're going to go ahead and bet out.

I did - I had an open-ended str8 draw....

[/QUOTE]
But 100 doesn't seem like it will "get the job done"^TM with that many players in. For a bluff, I'd say pick a better spot when you have a worse hand.[/QUOTE]
What will "get the job done"? I really struggle with this concept - if I bet too little I don't shake anyone - I bet too much I only get called by someone who is beating me and I regret puking away that many chips - HELP!

And please explain what a better spot to bluff looks like (i wasn't bluffing, I'll call it a semibluff)... and why should I bluff with a worse hand? I have trouble with that conceptually - let's say I have 3 9 offsuit - why invest ANYTHING with that? AND how much should I bet with this bluff?

Thanks,
NH

ScottyZ

And my opponents actually had very strong hands

No they didn't. Their hand values turned out to be well below what the flop action would suggest they should be.

I should clarify:

ScottyZ wrote:

You've really got to think that you have some chance of winning the pot here if you're going to go ahead and bet out.

Replace "winning the pot here" with "winning the pot because your opponents will fold to your bet here".

How much to get the job done is not an easy question to answer. It depends a lot on your opponent(s), what your opponents think of you, etc, etc. A generic rule is that betting around the size of the pot is usually in the right ballpark. But this is very much an "it depends" sort of thing. One thing to be wary of is varying your bet sizes in predictable ways. I'm continually surprised (and delighted) at how many "bet small for value and big as a bluff" NL players are out there. :cool: "They wear their tells like signs around their necks."

And please explain what a better spot to bluff looks like

Better spots to bluff arise due to things like knowledge of your opponents being tighter than usual. I can tell you based on this single hand that these are probably *not* opponents you want to bluff (this includes semi-bluffing) into. Position and/or the action in previous rounds matters too. Size of the pot matters a great deal. Why get invoved here trying to pick up a 4-way limped around pot?

My comment about bluffing with worse hands is along the lines of trying to sneak through cheaply with a weak draw in NL. I'd rather check a straight draw with the hope that the flop will be checked around, or there will be a very small bet. Maybe nobody has anything super at this point. Maybe someone will (possibly incorrectly) slowplay a big hand and let me take off a free card to my draw. In general, I like to save blufing for spots where, if I somehow knew after the fact that I could have gotten a free card instead, I would not regret having bet.

If I'm going to make a move on a pot, I don't want to run the risk of doing so on a street which would have otherwise gone free, or ultra-cheaply. Don't get me wrong in terms of this specific hand though. I would chack and fold with 93o here, just as I would with the A7.

These "answers" are probably not to satisfying, but these are very hard and important questions, and there actually is a tremendous amount of "it depends" going on.

ScottyZ

literation

I'd definitely fold with possible (straight) flush draw out there. Also, 10 J suited is bread and butter. So you could be drawing to the sucker straight. The chance of the overcard feels reduced with the all in and even so, the kicker is mediocre.

The blinds suggest there's lots of time left. Stay in the game and let the terminal money slide around.

Now time to read this thread...