How Does He Do It?
Normally I'd never post a bad beat but I can't believe this guy is supposedly a fairly successful player. I was playing a $20 SnG where I took a brutal beat. He called my big preflop raise that was more than 25% of his stack w/ 2 7 vs my AA. He check-raised all-in w/ bottom pr on the flop & turned 2 pr. It's not how bad he played it that amazes me, it's that he's a fairly winning player. I checked his stats on SharkScope & it says he avgs $3 profit on a avg stake of $16. How is this possible?
Comments
He certainly looks like a fish... so to answer your question, I'd guess it can only be one of two things...
1. He is on an incredible run of luck (or is the owner of that site's kid :P)
or what is more likely
2. He made an incredibly bad read of your hand/bet, and thought he'd be able to call, and then check raise you for the pot. You should look him up, and railbird him for a bit, see what kind of moves he makes. He might not be the fish you think he is.
it's almost certainly because he's able to turn two pair etc.
Man, when my PC crashed in the fall I lost my pattern mapper program and I had never bothered to back it up. I wasn't playing much at the time so I never worried about it. My friend of mine who was going to MIT created it and it was a sick program have but he and I have kind of lost touch.
It worked best with Party's software but even on Stars it could predict the turn card 72-75% of the time and the river card with 74-81% accuracy.
Do you have a copy of one of these I could get from you? I really should start using one again.
Thanks man,
Caddy
Hold em is so much easier with one of these!!
i actually felt for it.
feel like a sucker now.
lol chuckie.
Here's an explanation
http://www.holdemchat.com/Texas-hold-em-patterns.htm
Thanks alot Hobbes Hyachachacha
I'm going to disagree with people here and give a third possible explanation on his move. Once again all this is speculation. Plus a lot of information is missing on this hand.
If he's +EV, then likely he's an agressive player. At the very least you have to consider the fact that he plays attention to the way others play. If you made a big pre-flop raise, it looks like you don't want a caller. What does he put you on here? A mid/weak Ace, a small pair? Did he have you covered?
He's not calling with 27o to out-flop you, I'm guessing he's calling because he thinks he can get you off the pot. What was the flop? If there was no Ace and he hit it, he may think his hand is best. He checks to you to let you make a standard continuation bet and then attempts a semi-bluff check-raise to get you to lay down the hand.
There's a lot of information here that missing that we'd need to know to come close in determining what's going on...
- Who had who covered?
- What were the stack sizes in relation to the average stack sizes?
- What were the blinds at?
- How close were you to the money and were there any other players blind themselves out?
- What was on the flop?
- How had you played check-raises previously in the match?
- How had you played against this opponent during the match?
I just to say that it's possible that he is a winning player because he can make moves like this. Ye old "playing the player and not the cards" kinda thing.
I had him covered. I don't like his call because a continuation bet by me virtually commits me (due to his comparatively low stack). If he's calling to take me off the hand, he should've pushed on the flop.
I made a big preflop raise because there was already a limper. He called from SB, I raised from BB, limper folds & he calls raise. 4 Players left, I'm above avg & 2nd in chips comfortably & he's 3rd & much lower than avg (barely more than 4th). Flop was 7 10 K. If he's planning on going all-in anyway, I say a push by him makes more sense, if he pushes I may fold (not in this spot, but where I may not have anything), a check-raise & I'm virtually guaranteed to call based on math.
Preflop raise was 400 total (BB was 100). I bet 600 into 1000 pot, he had another 500 on top. So I was getting about 5.5 to 1 (1000 preflop including limper + 600 x 2 + 500). I had a stack of about 4000 preflop, he had 1500 preflop.