Is Poker bubbling out? Comparison to
We had a Stock Market bubble in 2001 where we saw crappy companies going public, spending money freely and then crashing to earth when the market realized there was no steak to go with the sizzle.
Is this something that we're seeing in online poker? I read quite a bit of 2n2 and it seems to me like the bigger buyin tournaments are getting a ton of action and people are willingly playing ever higher and higher stakes online. Doesn't this lead to a massive crash at some point? How is the poker 'economy' sustainable like this?
It was always said that the lowest limit bad fish players are the engine that runs the poker world. They lose money to the better players who move up and lose the money up the chain until eventually it goes out of the system at the higest stake levels. Isn't there a substantial decrease in the players at these levels?
Have people devalued the ease at which it is to win significant sums of money? Are crappy players playing too far above their heads?
Random thoughts.
Is this something that we're seeing in online poker? I read quite a bit of 2n2 and it seems to me like the bigger buyin tournaments are getting a ton of action and people are willingly playing ever higher and higher stakes online. Doesn't this lead to a massive crash at some point? How is the poker 'economy' sustainable like this?
It was always said that the lowest limit bad fish players are the engine that runs the poker world. They lose money to the better players who move up and lose the money up the chain until eventually it goes out of the system at the higest stake levels. Isn't there a substantial decrease in the players at these levels?
Have people devalued the ease at which it is to win significant sums of money? Are crappy players playing too far above their heads?
Random thoughts.
Comments
Is it poker or Hold'em?
I read some where (and kind of agree) Hold'em is a boring game compared to other poker games but makes for good TV coverage.
In Hold'em you only get two cards where in other forms of poker 4 or more is standard.
More cards mean more action but it makes it harder to cover. Think about an Omaha game where every player gets 4 cards, makes it difficult to keep track how many outs the players have and what was folded pre-flop.
That being said we are a long way from the top of the bubble IMO.
The poker boom has its roots in North America but is still in its infancy from a global perspective. There are tons of fresh fish coming into the market from all over the world. Outside of North America it isn’t as difficult to get your money online and the fish can still do it with relative ease. I see basket loads of horrifying play every time I log in at small stakes. While I can see this continuing for several more years I don’t think it will last forever.
I think that high stakes is a different animal. Of course there is going to be a trickle (up?) effect from the lower stakes games but there has to a ton of fresh money coming directly into these games. Business people, trust fund babies and etc. who want to jump into the game and learn at $1000NL or big limit MTT's. There is no juice for these players to grind $50NL so they just aren’t going to cut their teeth there. As BBC alluded to a big chuck of this is likely dead money in the tournaments.
Probably from this perspective Mid Stakes will be the first place that the action will start to dry up. Hundreds of 8 tabling HUD-Bots grinding off their bankrolls against the rake.
Or maybe I don’t know shit. What I do know is that I wish I could take my game in a time machine back to 2001. I could have made some serious dough if I was playing then.
I guess I was kinda making a comment about how there was this large pool of poker players who showed up between 2003 and today. I used to be that 3/6 online was a 'big game' and 100/200 on stars would go every once in awhile.. Now 3 years later, we looking at 1k/2k, people multitabling 100/200, 100K NL games etc.. just a massive expansion of people playing at ever increasing levels..
I doubt that it's just that many new people have joined the game at that level, but rather, the community as a whole has moved up stakes over the last few years and I wonder if thats sustainable.
Interesting because I think we're getting very close to this era. And from my own perspective, mid-limits are drying out..
I really just think that ego has really gotten into the community as a whole and will likely lead to a quicker burnout than was once thought.
Dunno.
I myself find it easier to end up at higher limits because instead of keeping $1000 or less at a particular site and moving my money in and out via Neteller, now I am keeping all my money at the 2 or 3 main sites I have consolidated to and I have nowhere to put that money w/o Neteller. So instead of requesting a bunch of cheques that money is just accumulating and making it easier mentally for me to go into higher limit.
However these mid type players are going to go away. Already we see it in the forum, with many people disappearing or posting about poker malaise. Go back even one year ago and we see a lot of excitement at the forum.
Where is Beanie, TNorth, Pkrfce, BigE et al?
For comparison, I compare it to the huge popularity of cigars 5-8 years ago. People paid ridiculous prices for these things at high end smoke shops, then every corner store started carrying Cubans.
(Walmart started carrying poker chips, forcing out many higher end suppliers).
Then anti-smoking legislation kicked in. Cigar bars were illegal. No-one could host cigar and scotch tasting parties in public facilities anymore. No smoking at the casinos.
(Very similar to the US anti-gambling legislation.)
Anyone want to buy a humidor?
Sounds like I'm in the same boat as you Moose. Although there's times I wonder if I need to find some softer games (I'm playing Stars these days). Maybe the only difference I've had is that every time I've moved up, I've naturally run into one of those -100-150BB downswings and of course I scurry back to my familiar limits. It's not even that the play is exceptionally different, but I know when I'm running bad and I'm playing higher than I normally am I always have that feeling "Wow, maybe I'm actually getting outplayed now". Variance at double the swings you're used to sucks. So instead I've been running meh for the last few months and I wonder if it's even worth moving up.
And this is mainly 6max games. The full ring games I just find to be an utter bore now.
Why we need to carpet bomb with dvd's of Rounders to avoid the poker crash:-)
Let's follow the dead money.
Idiots watch big NL tournaments on TV.
Idiots play Multitable Tournament No Limit Holdem.
Big MTT's remove money from the poker economy.
Big MTT's concentrate money into the hands of the top 3 place finishers.
Rather than getting the money won by fish recycled back into the economy ...
... If fish win a top 3 prize .... big tournament money leaves the poker economy and gets spent on hookers and blow or worse, wasted on stable blue chip companies. :-)
Good players will siphon out much of the idiots money but too much cash is leaving the poker economy too quickly.
Seriously,
Games are getting tougher than 3 years ago, Low stakes games with everyone having a VP$IP under 25% are the norm .... Games are much more aggressive....
// Disclaimer yes I know MTT's contribute much to the poker economy... I just wish they would keep more of it in the poker world...
It's still pretty soft but 1 yr ago I'd say it was the softest game anywhere in Ontario (it was basically a beginner's home game). Many of those who did make a successful living say they used to make noticeably more. There aren't as many new fish coming in, as the poker boom is a few yrs old already, if they haven't played by now they're likely never trying. I'm talking about the people who don't know much about it & just wanna play because it's the 'in' thing, everyone knows poker by now so there aren't those 'new' fish. There are new players, but they're now entering because they've reached legal age.
Yup. Look how long it takes to fill up a sitn go now. If you want a 2-3 table sit n go the wait is 30 minutes plus compared to only minutes previously..
I do believe the one aspect of poker that is dying is free play. When I started out I just wanted to hit the tables with my boys and play for bragging rights or a measly $10 bucks. Now playing for free or low stakes is just not enjoyable. Once players got a taste of what kind of money poker can earn you the drive to play for free went down. Poker Tours are having trouble keeping their players. Red Hot Poker Tour, amongst others, has players dropping all the time. Not as many people want to compete in 60 person tournament for a T-shirt at the end of the night?
Anyways I still think poker has a couple good more years before the boom ends. Governments around the world will re-open online gaming as soon as they find out how they can regulate it and get a piece of this multi billion dollar business.
Boo.
But the question was about poker in general bubbling...well live poker rooms here in Calgary are so busy that each room has waiting lists going at all times for all games and limits. The action is full of GAMBLERS.
I think that the answer to the question is pretty simply. GAMBLERS = action. With the new restrictions to online gambling, online poker will suffer as will any other form of gambling. Places where live action is plentiful there will be lots of money for real poker players to make money!
Just last week I spent some time playing 5/10NL on Stars. So, to answer your second ?, yes, crappy players are playing too far above their limits.
I personally find that grinding low limit poker is still profitable, its a far biggr pain in the ass to get things going for newer players. I can still remember the days that one could just continually pop the CC to reload the account. Those were special times. (thanks Celine)
I also find that discussing that on here is no where near as fun as it used to be.
Safe and happy long weekend to all.
Dave
Is that anything like a dehumidifier..if so I need one?
I'll be honest with you.....with the death of Neteller it has become very difficult for me to continue playing. Call me stubborn but I just cannot swallow the fees my bank charges to wire money to and from moneybookers so I don't use them. Click2Pay isn't bad and I am using them here and there but I'm having a horrible time trying to get my money out of some Euro sites. One sent me a cheque, my bank would not honour it, I returned it and they let me cash out using Ecocard...now I'm having difficulty getting from Ecocard to my bank...it's been months, it's only a couple hun but it's frustrating as hell. I left a big chunk on Paradise because I had almost $250 in bonus money there and it bled out at a very attractive rate. Now with the changes at Paradise it bleeds out half as fast...fuck that I say. I've been playing free-rolls and using up some poker site points for sng's and stuff but honestly it has just become to much work to move money around. Add that to the new job I started and I just don't have the time to read or post here let alone play.
Another point for my lack of posting lately is I simply question if I'm cut out to get any better. I believe my stats prove that I am a successful low-limit ring player but I just cannot take it to the next level in tourney play nor do I have the roll to move up in ring play and I'm frustrated with that...there are a lot of great poker minds on this site but I wonder if anything posted here can actually help me improve. I also don't think I really have anything useful to say or to contribute to anyone newbie or otherwise. I'm just not sure I have the make-up to be a better then average tourney player plain and simple. There is a big difference between knowing what to do and actually doing it. You can read all the literature you want and understand the philosophy and strategy completely but executing takes not only smarts and understanding but a certain personality and mind set as well.
Do I still enjoy playing...fuck yeah but I enjoy it a whole lot more when it's live and in a relaxed atmosphere with friends. Bigger is not better for me. I doubt very much I'll get out to many more Bristol events unless they are the Christmas specials or 'fun' nights. IMHO Rob runs the best game in town and is the most excellent host of hosts but the talent level at these things is really amazing and I just find myself completely and utterly out classed.
For me I think I'll always play but it's a step back now to smaller more 'friendly' games with no delusions of grandeur. Same goes for the games I hosted. I had a lot of fun the first season when it was smaller, season two not so much.. I just could not focus or enjoy myself so...it's back to basics for me.
I'll still lurk here on weekends if only to wish people happy Birthdays or add some stupid wise ass comment or just take a thread off onto a completely unrelated tangent (by the way congratz on the new house Johnnie and Wraychel) but I don't think Poker itself has peaked so much as I think I have....and that my friends is really sad.
Exactly what I was going to say....
The fact that you seem to have a good self assessment of your own limitations is a credit to you. Many would be winners can't (or refuse to) accept their own limitations and as a result end up playing in games too tough. I'm not saying you can't improve or shouldn't move up, just that the fact you even entertain the idea that maybe a game is too tough is a credit to both your table selection skills, and the realization of where your own game is at. With the withdrawal of Neteller certainly most online games have only gotten tougher. Progress and play at your own comfort level, not just for the sake of climbing limits.
I've stopped playing at a predominanlty Canadian (now that the States are gone) site, simply because those left are really "good", and you tend to either go down in a session, break even, or, at best, notice a small increase. The traffic has slowed down there, too. I can always get a game on the Euro sites, and if I time it right, and get on there at the peak times, the fish are plentiful, and I generally walk away making some decent cake.
The money transfer thing is a bitch, no question. I honestly haven't tried any transfers in a long time, choosing instead to build a large bankroll and take a lump sum off...still waiting on the large enough bankroll..hehe... Instadebit is great for starting up at a new site, for anyone still looking. Once someone comes along with something as easy as Neteller (and they will, they always find a way), then it will be business as usual.
In general, poker is a great game where anyone can make some bucks. As long as they keep the TV games going and interesting, they will attract new players. The fact that it has spread to the homes as much as it has will fuel the fire. I don't think online poker is going anywhere anytime soon - it would be the same as saying Las Vegas is going to shut down...and it's a lot tougher to get to Vegas to gamble than it is to gamble online...for now.
Even the t.v. coverage seems to have gone down.