question on the bubble, set vs monster draw
my friend comment that my action is stupid, because when he raise 5000, he is not going to fold. if i know poker at all, i should of put him on a str8 flush draw, and fold my set on the bubble.
he has 15 outs to beat whatever i have.
15/34=44%
bubble time, this is too much of a coinflip risk to take with all my stack.
Is he correct here?????
EDIT:i'm no longer use chuckieland, i sign up new account, so i can get rakeback.
chuckieland=allyasia
Full Tilt Poker Game #2222465870: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (16744619), Table 2 - 500/1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:33:28 ET - 2007/04/16
Seat 1: sWiT (16,720)
Seat 2: Ace Nutz (2,700)
Seat 3: tojomoto (8,800)
Seat 4: softhaze (10,600)
Seat 7: allyasia (9,270)
Seat 8: romong (5,790)
Seat 9: N008 (13,620)
softhaze posts the small blind of 500
allyasia posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to allyasia [4d 4s]
romong folds
N008 folds
sWiT folds
Ace Nutz folds
tojomoto folds
softhaze calls 500
allyasia checks
*** FLOP *** [Kc Qc 4h]
softhaze checks
allyasia bets 2,000
softhaze raises to 5,000
allyasia raises to 8,270, and is all in
softhaze calls 3,270
allyasia shows [4d 4s]
softhaze shows [Tc Jc]
*** TURN *** [Kc Qc 4h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [Kc Qc 4h Ac] [6c]
N008: omg
allyasia shows three of a kind, Fours
softhaze shows a Royal Flush
softhaze wins the pot (18,540) with a Royal Flush
allyasia stands up
he has 15 outs to beat whatever i have.
15/34=44%
bubble time, this is too much of a coinflip risk to take with all my stack.
Is he correct here?????
EDIT:i'm no longer use chuckieland, i sign up new account, so i can get rakeback.
chuckieland=allyasia
Full Tilt Poker Game #2222465870: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (16744619), Table 2 - 500/1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:33:28 ET - 2007/04/16
Seat 1: sWiT (16,720)
Seat 2: Ace Nutz (2,700)
Seat 3: tojomoto (8,800)
Seat 4: softhaze (10,600)
Seat 7: allyasia (9,270)
Seat 8: romong (5,790)
Seat 9: N008 (13,620)
softhaze posts the small blind of 500
allyasia posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to allyasia [4d 4s]
romong folds
N008 folds
sWiT folds
Ace Nutz folds
tojomoto folds
softhaze calls 500
allyasia checks
*** FLOP *** [Kc Qc 4h]
softhaze checks
allyasia bets 2,000
softhaze raises to 5,000
allyasia raises to 8,270, and is all in
softhaze calls 3,270
allyasia shows [4d 4s]
softhaze shows [Tc Jc]
*** TURN *** [Kc Qc 4h] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [Kc Qc 4h Ac] [6c]
N008: omg
allyasia shows three of a kind, Fours
softhaze shows a Royal Flush
softhaze wins the pot (18,540) with a Royal Flush
allyasia stands up
Comments
Personally, I wouldn't have laid it down.
With an M of just over 6 you get it in everytime.
You should kick yourself if you ever even think about folding this!
folding never cross my mind
it's my friend's comment that made me think.
because there are two short stack with M3 or less, I shouldn't went crazy on this hand that i am only a slight favorite.
so i just like to confirm, if i made a mistake here or not.
thanks for the input
right on brother!
tough he hit his draw but you can't fold.
funny I had a similar hand last night playing $25 NL, I had AQh in the BB, called a $1 raise from LP player, flop was two hearts and the Qd, top pair top kicker, nut flush draw...I check he bets I come over the top he calls with AA I river my flush. I made a comment something like 'sorry dude, didn't think I was behind' he replied 'no sweat, the other 75% of the time I take your money'. That's how you need to think when you think you've taken a bad beat. All you can do is the right thing, get your money in ahead the cards still have to fall, sometimes they give it to you prison style but remain confident you made the right move and let it go!
It's 58% of the time not 75% for what it is worth.
Question about this hand.
What is your thought process with the call pre-flop? And what percentage of the time do you do this?
For my game at 25NL (I am assuming 6 max) I probably 3 bet this a little better than 50% of the time. Depending on table dynamic and bettors tendencies OBV. At a weak or tight table even more often. With a maniac I'll just let him bet himself to death.
You only pair up here 30% of the time on the flop and if you check you will see a cbet like 90% of the time that you don't have odds to call.
You always seem to have a good reason for everything that you do which is why I ask.
Sorry to hijack your thread Chuckie....but then really.....it is a chuckie thread!
You're only behind KK or QQ here. As it turned out, he was drawing and hit it big time.
Your friend needs to read a book! Bad advise.
HAHA, that is what i think too
Yes, I was going to post that his comment of 75% was incorrect and didn't think anyone would bother to correct it (I should know better on this forum...no knock on you meant..just that this forum as a whole is very critical). It was the sentiment of his statement that mattered...basically the fact that although I hit my draw and stacked him he realized he was favoured and accepted the loss knowing if he keeps playing that way, in the long run, he will win more then lose. When you're favoured and all-in and make the right play and lose you can't get down on yourself.
Are you talking about the OP or my hand?
I wasn't being critical of you. You were quoting someone else. I was just correcting the math. LOL Can't help it.
I was asking about your hand and your thoughts on re-raising AQ sooooooooted there.
Would you agree that if he is CALLING an all-in post flop with AA he is NOT making money in the long run. In fact he is probably getting his money in behind 2/3's of the time.
And against your hand he is really just a coin flip.
BTW - I agree 100% with you about his attitude. He was happy with his decision and not the result.
LOL, I figured as much, no sweat
You have a good point, calling an all-in is much different then pushing...so I would tend to agree with you if that was the case he's likely not favoured as much or as often as he thinks. In my case I think you were almost right on, he's something like 55/45 probably slightly better like 57/43 to win but yes, I was really impressed with his attitude....too many times you'll have someone go up one side of you and down the other in cases like these (and yes I've done this too many times!). It certainly made me feel stupid for the times I've blown up and it made me want to try to think before reacting the next time my aces get cracked.
Sorry to hijack Chuckie! To answer this tho.....I probably could have gotten a better read on his strength if I had 3 bet pre-flop...I think I like to see more flops (read: I play too passively at NL). this player had just sat down a few hands ago and I had only been at the table for 1 lap so I did not have a read on him. I guess I should have given him credit for a big hand until I have a reason to believe otherwise...or at least should have probed to see how much he liked his hand. Funny, if I'm playing limit I 3 bet this instantly?
I think for me, for right or wrong, I thought I was making the decision easier for me as well as controlling the pot and leaving myself an out. If I 3 bet and he pushes over top of me I have a difficult decision to make as he likely pushes all-in or at least makes a big enough re-raise that I am committed. I'm not sure I'm good enough to easily dump AQs at the micro levels I play (read: no fold'em hold'em) where players are capable of pushing on a wide range of hands. I'd like to think that if he came back and pushed over my 3 bet then I'd have to easily put him on a better hand so I'd hope that I would fold...just not sure if at the time I would have?
Anyways, by playing passively I got to control the pot size and see a cheap flop and luckily that flop hit me pretty hard, I was only behind AA or KK with TPTK and a big draw, thankfully I hit my draw.
Looking at the odds after the cards flipped over I lose more then I win in this situation over time so I think I need to stop being so passive...I can see as well that the post flop decision in this case may have been easier but it could potentially become much harder in other cases.
Maybe I'm wrong but so far on the site I'm playing, passive aggressive has been working well at the $25 NL tables, see flops cheaply and cash in when you hit, whether that is fundamentally sound is another question...but hey my screen name is Donk.E so that should tell you something
I have found the most exploitable weakness at 25NL is poor pre-flop play. I also aggree that you can often sit down at a maniacal table where someone is getting it all-in before the flop 1 in 10 hands. I am not talking about those situations
I think of it this way. Very few at 25NL are ever going to 4 bet you with anything other than AA, KK. Your hand here is not a good one for stacking either of these hands. Possible, but not likely. Most of the flops that hit you with either an A or Q are actually going to be reverse implied odds situations where you really don't know where you stand. Even if you are good post flop and don't go broke when this happens you will blow off half of your stack figuring out that he has AA.
You played this hand well post flop and put the pressure on him with your big draw.
I don't believe you. I think you need to be able to fold AQ to a push here pretty quickly. If not you need to address this because it is a leak.
Aggression puts decisions on your opponent. Passivity puts all the decisions on you. Barring you flopping a straight or a flush this flop hit you about as hard as it could and you were still on the thin side of a coin flip.
I think it is fundamentally sound. You can beat the game playing this way. I just wonder how much more $$ you can make if you open your game up a ton pre-flop and combine that with your solid post flop play.
DUCY
Very good point....I did manage to get lucky with my AQ this time, however the odds are against me in this situation over the long run. A pre-flop re-raise should have helped me get a better idea of what I was up against.
Yeah, you're absolutely right, I 3-bet, they 4-bet or push I fold easily.
Another excellent point and something I need to be aware of always, if there is a leak in my game it is that I lapse into passivity too often.
Thanks again, your insight is both accurate and much appreciated!