Monster Draw...call/fold??

STR82ACESTR82ACE
in Online Poker
About halfway through a 180 player tournament. I'm average stack. Villain has shown alot of bluffs and bad calls that have hit.

PokerStars Game #9432691252: Tournament #47891873, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit
- Level V (75/150) - 2007/04/15 - 09:49:03 (ET)
Table '47891873 13' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: deutsch-pole (895 in chips)
Seat 2: GoingGray (3710 in chips)
Seat 3: Scott0069 (2402 in chips)
Seat 4: maxsteiner64 (1526 in chips)
Seat 5: tommmek (4295 in chips)
Seat 6: ponchoBob (11195 in chips)
Seat 7: SidneyAKQJ (2423 in chips)
Seat 8: sexysanja (4620 in chips)
Seat 9: kaelder (6080 in chips)
sexysanja: posts small blind 75
kaelder: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GoingGray [9c 8c]
deutsch-pole: folds
GoingGray: raises 300 to 450
Scott0069: folds
maxsteiner64: folds
tommmek: folds
ponchoBob: folds
SidneyAKQJ: folds
sexysanja: calls 375
kaelder: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jc 7d 6c]
sexysanja: bets 450
GoingGray: raises 750 to 1200
sexysanja: raises 2970 to 4170 and is all-in

Call or fold?

Comments

  • HobbesHobbes
    Based on the call of the raise preflop, I'd put the villian on a big ace or maybe slowplaying KK/AA (not sure if you feel he is capable)

    You've already committed over 1/3 of your chips and unless the villian hit a set (you are a slight dog) you are ahead. Tough call but you should make it.
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    15 outs times 2, to make either straight or flush, and assuming he doesn't have a higher flush draw, you are 30/47 or a 64% to 36% fav. If he has nothing at all, ie complete bluff, you also have your 9's and 8's as outs, giving you 6 more outs. Biggest concern is a hand like A7 of clubs where you would be behind and your club draw is no good. Then you would have your straight cards and pairing your 9 or 8 as outs, still 14 outs times 2 or a 28/47 or a 59% to 41% fav. Now that's the math of it... Looks like a call doesn't it. Comes down to whther or not you think this is the point you need to double up or can you keep playing with the chips you have left. I call almost instantly here.
  • Big EBig E
    Too many outs for me to fold here but if you do fold your M is around 11 so I think you'll have to become very aggressive if you fold why not go for it here? If you're read is correct you can put the villain on a wide range of hands most of which if you hit any of your draws you're likely good so I'd risk it here with a chance to double up.
  • _obv__obv_
    Worst case is he has a higher flush draw where you are a 2:1 dog. Against a set you are a 3:2 dog and against 1 or 2 pair you are pretty much 50/50. You are getting better than 2:1 odds on the call so I make this call everytime. I'm not a fan of the preflop raise from early position with that stack size though.
  • g2g2
    instacall

    /g2
  • JohnnieHJohnnieH
    I'd break my finger clicking CALL.

    Play to win AJ!

    So, what happened?
  • STR82ACESTR82ACE
    I called cold. Figured I had huge outs to go with the call, and figuring the way this person played so far, could have anything or nothing at all.

    This time, they had QQ. I hit zero of my outs, and I'm out in midfield somewhere.
  • STR82ACESTR82ACE
    _obv_ wrote: »
    I'm not a fan of the preflop raise from early position with that stack size though.

    First in the pot, and the action up to that point since the break was alot of preflop raises were being respected and going unchallenged. Hadn't seen a flop for about 10 or 12 hands. I would have normally limped in this position with suited connectors, but figured a raise might just take it down.

    When the flop hit though, I couldn't give up the hand, just too many outs. I was going to take it all the way. If I hadn't hit the flop so nicely, I would have given up the hand.
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    STR82ACE wrote: »
    \\\\\\\\\\\\
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to GoingGray [9c 8c]

    GoingGray: raises 300 to 450

    sexysanja: calls 375

    *** FLOP *** [Jc 7d 6c]
    sexysanja: bets 450

    GoingGray: raises 750 to 1200

    sexysanja: raises 2970 to 4170 and is all-in

    Call or fold?


    I am wondering what your thoughts on the re-raise, it sound like you wanted her to fold or that the intentions was for her to fold. If that indeed was your intention then all-in was the move on the re-raise, make her make a decision for her chips. Your re raise seems a little weak.

    I would still be calling.

    Prophet 22
  • STR82ACESTR82ACE
    The Prophet 22 wrote: »
    I am wondering what your thoughts on the re-raise, it sound like you wanted her to fold or that the intentions was for her to fold. If that indeed was your intention then all-in was the move on the re-raise, make her make a decision for her chips. Your re raise seems a little weak.

    I would still be calling.

    Prophet 22

    She cold called preflop, and then only 3xbb on the flop, I figured she was trying to steal it from me. I've seen her make this move a few times during the game with nothing in her hand. So when I raised her, I was trying to get her to fold her hand, I would have been quite happy if she did too. With her push though, I knew I had outs, and again, I've seen her push with nothing a few times, so I really didn't put her anything in particular, just thought that if I should hit one of my outs, I would win the hand. Hindsight, yes I should have pushed the raise allin...still would have called me though.
  • The Prophet 22The Prophet 22
    STR82ACE wrote: »
    ...still would have called me though.

    If you believe that to be true, then a flat call is the right move so you can see the turn without the possiblity of have to decide on your stack.

    Prophet 22
  • g2g2
    STR82ACE wrote: »
    ...still would have called me though.
    He only knew this from hindsight though (when she pushed on the reraise, instead of folding).

    /g2
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    I probably would have played the hand differently pre-flop and after villain's bet, but you made the correct decision calling the all-in. At that point, your pot odds were 2.7-to-1. You only needed a 27% chance of winning to make the call profitable. You probably had 15 outs, so you were actually around a 53% favourite to win.
  • CrazyJoe113CrazyJoe113
    compuease wrote: »
    15 outs times 2, to make either straight or flush, and assuming he doesn't have a higher flush draw, you are 30/47 or a 64% to 36% fav. If he has nothing at all, ie complete bluff, you also have your 9's and 8's as outs, giving you 6 more outs. Biggest concern is a hand like A7 of clubs where you would be behind and your club draw is no good. Then you would have your straight cards and pairing your 9 or 8 as outs, still 14 outs times 2 or a 28/47 or a 59% to 41% fav. Now that's the math of it... Looks like a call doesn't it. Comes down to whther or not you think this is the point you need to double up or can you keep playing with the chips you have left. I call almost instantly here.


    just a quick note, this math is fundamentally flawed, he wouldnt be a 64% favourite, you don't just multiply his outs by 2 and divide by unseen cards, you find the odds that he misses twice and use the opposite. 32/47 * 31/46 = .458 or 45.8% to lose, so 54.2% to win.

    This could be a problem for you if you are using the wrong math consistently.
  • _obv__obv_
    CrazyJoe113 wrote: »
    just a quick note, this math is fundamentally flawed, he wouldnt be a 64% favourite, you don't just multiply his outs by 2 and divide by unseen cards, you find the odds that he misses twice and use the opposite. 32/47 * 31/46 = .458 or 45.8% to lose, so 54.2% to win.

    This could be a problem for you if you are using the wrong math consistently.


    This also doesnt take into account the times where you hit your card and still lose. For example if he has a set and you hit your club on the turn but the river pairs the board you lose despite making your hand.
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    I didn't want to point out directly that the math was flawed, but I confirm that CrazyJoe113's calculations are correct.
    CrazyJoe113 wrote: »
    you find the odds that he misses twice and use the opposite. 32/47 * 31/46 = .458 or 45.8% to lose, so 54.2% to win.
    This could be a problem for you if you are using the wrong math consistently.
  • CrazyJoe113CrazyJoe113
    _obv_ wrote: »
    This also doesnt take into account the times where you hit your card and still lose. For example if he has a set and you hit your club on the turn but the river pairs the board you lose despite making your hand.


    this is right too, if you are against a set obviously your odds go down, i didnt want to make it too complicated though.
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