calculating outs

medic1medic1
in General Poker Chat
Is there a generally accepted number that accounts for hole cards that may have been folded when calculating your outs?

i.e I'm holding Ks 10s and the flop comes 6s 2s Qh. As things stand I am looking at 8 outs to a flush assuming no one else holds a spade, but is there a number to reduce those outs to give me a more realistic calculation? Say if its a 9 player table, maybe figure theres 2-3 spades out already?

Comments

  • cadillaccadillac
    There is formula but you only use it when you play with Jokers.
  • medic1medic1
    I found this calculation for preflop (using say diamonds, assuming you have 2 diamond down cards)

    # hole cards unknown / 47 (cards aside from yours and coming burn cards) X # players = (value)

    then.....

    # players - (value) = estimated true remaining outs


    so..... say for a 10 player table

    18/47X9 = 3.45

    then

    9-3.45 = 5.55 outs

    Ok, so thats fairly simple single number to commit to memory for a flush at a 10 player table, but the formula doesn't really work for anything else
  • beanie42beanie42
    You don't need to discount cards just because they are folded. Whether they are mucked, burned, or in the deck, they are still unknown to you, so normal out calculations apply. The only reason this would change is if you know what somebody folded (in which case it's not unknown). No special formula needed...
  • AcidJoesHoeAcidJoesHoe
    No.... you dont know what those cards are you dont know what others have folded.. they are just cards in the deck.
    I dont think, unless you could see the other peoples cards. Only in 7 card stud, can you make that kind of calulation. I am not totally sure on the values. But in just holdem I dont think there is a general accepted number...

    Others may disagree with me, but what I have learned, you calculate your odds from the cards left in the deck..
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    AcidJoesHoe wrote: »
    Others may disagree with me, but what I have learned, you calculate your odds from the cards left in the deck..
    You calculate you outs on UNKNOWN cards whether they be in someone else hands, the muck pile, burn, doesn't matter. ie if you have 4 to the flush after the flop but don't know anything other than your 2 cards and the 3 on the flop, then your odds on making your flush on the turn would be 9/47 = 19.1%. The 9 (13-4) remaining flush cards divided by the (52 total - 5 known cards) = 47 unknown cards. I know you know that Aimee but others may not...
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    OMG compuease, don't educate her in poker she might actually believe she knows :) I think your explaination is the clearest so my answer is what Compuease said.
  • medic1medic1
    Thanks....I was just wondering whether there was something I was missing. Calculating outs, I always wondered whether there was something to factor in for folded hole cards because if your in a huge pot with a borderline decision the difference between 19.1% and 14% (7/47) or 12.7% (6/47) seems more significant.

    Thanks for the explanation
  • AcidJoesHoeAcidJoesHoe
    Yea Your right I know just didnt know how to say it right as usual . lol
    sheesh if it is not Joe giving me shit for sumtin now I got a rock on my back..

    :)
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    AcidJoesHoe wrote: »
    Yea Your right I know just didnt know how to say it right as usual . lol
    sheesh if it is not Joe giving me shit for sumtin now I got a rock on my back..

    :)
    Jeepers, don't tell Joe that! And Joe, when was the last time you lasted longer than Aimee? She doesn't need any educating... She's probably better than both of us, at least more patient...
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    compuease wrote: »
    Jeepers, don't tell Joe that! And Joe, when was the last time you lasted longer than Aimee? She doesn't need any educating... She's probably better than both of us, at least more patient...

    Maybe live but not on line. She has no patience then. As to last longer, you know most men can't outlast a woman...... she still wants to go when you are long folded.... :)
  • ArchieArchie
    HERE IS MY TAKE ON IT. HOPE IT HELPS.:)



    Calculate your Outs

    First you should know how to calculate your "outs" when on a draw. Outs are the number of cards that can come to make your hand. Say you are holding 10J and the flop comes Q92 - any 8 or K will make you the nut straight. That's 8 out of 52 cards, or about 1:6 (that means 1 out of every 6 cards). Let's take another example, say you have AK and the flop comes 472, your chances of an A or K coming on the turn or river are 6 out of 52, or about 1:8.
    I personally always say " I have 6 outs" - or how many outs I have at the time, rather than saying to myself, "I have a 1 in 8 chance". When you divide the number of cards that can make your hand by the number of cards in the deck, you come up with the numbers separated by a semicolon: 1:6 or 1:8, and so on. You will use this formula along with the pot odds formula to determine whether or not you should call certain bet amounts to try to make you hand.
    How to Calculate Pot Odds in Poker

    Calculating pot odds is very similar to what I have explained above. I will use small numbers as not to cause confusion. Say the pot is $8.00 and you must call a $1.00 bet to see the turn or river. The pot is offering you 1:8 odds in your favor. Another example- say the pot is $20.00 and you must call a $5.00 bet to see the next card, the pot odds are offering you 1:4. Sounds easy - right ?
    Now, you must tie the 2 formulas together to see if you are making the right call on your draw. Lets keep using the above examples. You have 10J in your hand and the flop comes Q92. We have calculated that your odds for hitting your money card are 1:6. The pot is $8.00 and you must call $1.00 to see the turn, so the pot odds are 1:8. The pot odds in this case are greater and you should call this bet. It is 1:6 for you to make your hand and 1:8 for the amount of a bet you have to call. Always remember, the pot odds MUST be higher in your favor than the odds of your cards coming in order for it to be a correct call.
    Implied Odds in Poker

    What if you do your calculations and the pot odds and the odds of hitting your outs are the same? This is where you can infer what the pot is going to be after everyone puts money in. Say you are 1:6 to make your hand and the pot odds are 1:6 as well, you now figure in what the pot is going to be after the turn and the river. Assuming there are 2 of you in the pot and a $1.00 bet has been laid out for you to call, the pot is $6.00. You calling the bet will make it $7.00, which implies that the bettor will bet again on the turn, and then you will call, making the pot $9.00. These are called Implied Odds. In this case the implied odds would be 1:9 to the 1:6 outs you have for pulling your winning card. You should use the implied odds and make the call.
    The bottom line on this is tha numbers don't lie. Yes, once in a while we all play on luck because that is part of the game, but using pot odds tells you clearly "yes or no" if you should put your money into the pot on your chase to make a winning hand. After awhile this process will be like second nature to you. Figuring out your outs, the pot odds, and whether or not to put your money in the pot on certain draws will have a profound impact on your overall poker strategy.
  • ScoobyDScoobyD
    That's 8 out of 52 cards, or about 1:6 (that means 1 out of every 6 cards).

    Correction: You have a 1 in 6 chance of hitting your hand, which of course is the same as a 5:1 draw.
  • g2g2
    Archie wrote: »
    Calculate your Outs

    First you should know how to calculate your "outs" when on a draw. Outs are the number of cards that can come to make your hand. Say you are holding 10J and the flop comes Q92 - any 8 or K will make you the nut straight. That's 8 out of 52 cards, or about 1:6 (that means 1 out of every 6 cards). Let's take another example, say you have AK and the flop comes 472, your chances of an A or K coming on the turn or river are 6 out of 52, or about 1:8.
    I personally always say " I have 6 outs" - or how many outs I have at the time, rather than saying to myself, "I have a 1 in 8 chance". When you divide the number of cards that can make your hand by the number of cards in the deck, you come up with the numbers separated by a semicolon: 1:6 or 1:8, and so on. You will use this formula along with the pot odds formula to determine whether or not you should call certain bet amounts to try to make you hand.
    8 out of 52... 8 out of 47
    1:6... you mean 6:1 (and that means 1 in 7, not 1 in 6)

    anyway, it's actually ( 47-8 ):8... so 39:8... roughly 5:1

    or am I the odds-donk?

    /g2
  • ArchieArchie
    I do stand corrected. Thanks.
  • ArchieArchie
    to clear it up i think some players may find this chart helpful. I still think my pot odds post does provide some good ideas even though there was a slight error.:)
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Poker Outs Table[/SIZE][/FONT]
    clearpixel.gif
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Number of Outs[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Turn and River to Come[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]River to Come[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]22/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]45/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]11/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]22/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]7/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]14/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]4[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]5/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]11/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]4/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]8/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]6[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]16/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]13/2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]7[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]13/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]11/2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]8[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]11/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]19/4[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]9[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]15/8[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]4/1[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]8/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]7/2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]11[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]7/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]16/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]12[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]6/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]14/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]13[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]11/10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]5/2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]14[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]19/20[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]23/10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]15[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]17/20[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]21/10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]16[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]3/ 4[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]15/8[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]17[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]4/6[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]17/10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]18[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]6/10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]8/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]19[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]8/15[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]7/5[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]20[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]1 /2[/SIZE][/FONT]
    [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans-serif][SIZE=-1]13/10[/SIZE][/FONT]
    clearpixel.gifclearpixel.gif
  • g2g2
    Archie wrote: »
    I still think my pot odds post does provide some good ideas even though there was a slight error.
    Absolutely.

    I think your chart is a bit hard to read in its current format though.

    /g2
  • ArchieArchie
    g2 wrote: »
    Absolutely.

    I think your chart is a bit hard to read in its current format though.

    /g2

    Yes it did not post in its original column format and I am not sure why?
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    how the hell do i delete a post?
  • g2g2
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    how the hell do i delete a post?
    You ask a mod.

    /g2
  • specialKspecialK
    I think the OP was wondering what are the odds that some of the remaining 9 flush cards are in the muck.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    specialK wrote: »
    I think the OP was wondering what are the odds that some of the remaining 9 flush cards are in the muck.
    ya. and your point is?
  • medic1medic1
    specialK wrote: »
    I think the OP was wondering what are the odds that some of the remaining 9 flush cards are in the muck.

    Yes it was. I know how to calculate outs, pot odds, implied odds, EV etc. All I wanted to know was if there was a commonly accepted factor to account for "outs" that have already been burned or dealt to other players at the table.

    I know it doesn't really affect the way I play my game, but I was just curious. I think the answer seems to be no.....
  • g2g2
    medic1 wrote: »
    I think the answer seems to be no.....
    The answer is, 'it doesn't matter'.

    /g2
  • OnadarOnadar
    hey everyone,

    i think that the only need to be quite that presice is the televised events, the commentators are always going on about odds for each hand. i have read several ways to get odds reading the threads, but none i can do fast enough to help me in a hand, especially a turbo game. the only way i can ever do it fast enough and still do my pot odds after is (number of outs X 2)+1. pretty simple and straightforward. i just bump it up or down to nearest 5 or 10 percentile and that give me 5:1 or 10:1 whatever is closest to actual figure. pretty much only on draws, pot odds help me more with 2 pair, trips, etc. ???
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