Another tourney hand for discussion.
Things are heating up here on the hand analysis front, so I thought I'd throw one out there as well.
Live 2-table NL tournament. 1st: $1000 2nd: $600 3rd: $300.
3 players left, blinds 300/600. Total chips in play: 30K
Me on the button: 6K
SB: 9K
BB: 15K
I am dealt ATo on the button. The BB is an ABC player, maybe a little more aggressive than most. He's been getting some big hands preflop, and he bets them heavily. However, he's pretty easy to steal from (being an ABC player), so my plan is to steal from him as much as possible because he won't play back at me without (what he considers to be) a legitimate hand, and he has overvalued a couple in the past. He will, however, call a minimum raise with any two from the BB--I've seen him do it.
I triple the blinds to 1800. SB folds. BB re-raises me another 5K, which will put me all-in. 2700 in already, plus the BB's 4200 raise, and my last 4200 to call.
What would you do?
Regards,
all_aces
Live 2-table NL tournament. 1st: $1000 2nd: $600 3rd: $300.
3 players left, blinds 300/600. Total chips in play: 30K
Me on the button: 6K
SB: 9K
BB: 15K
I am dealt ATo on the button. The BB is an ABC player, maybe a little more aggressive than most. He's been getting some big hands preflop, and he bets them heavily. However, he's pretty easy to steal from (being an ABC player), so my plan is to steal from him as much as possible because he won't play back at me without (what he considers to be) a legitimate hand, and he has overvalued a couple in the past. He will, however, call a minimum raise with any two from the BB--I've seen him do it.
I triple the blinds to 1800. SB folds. BB re-raises me another 5K, which will put me all-in. 2700 in already, plus the BB's 4200 raise, and my last 4200 to call.
What would you do?
Regards,
all_aces
Comments
A veritable orgy of hand analysis posts. Hopefully this will overpower the recent vertiable orgy of bad beat posts.
GoooooOOOOO Hand Analysis!
ScottyZ
Acording to the numbers, you need about a 39% chance of winning the hand to make a call correct here.
As usual, the read on your opponent is critical.
1. What were the previous hands he has "overvalued in the past" as legitimate hands?
2. Is the opponent in question well aware of 3-handed starting values? Might he re-raise with *any* Ace here? Small pairs? How averse to a coin toss does your opponent seem? Can you imagine him re-raising with 22 here?
What worries me the most is that you are second guessing your read on a player you have described as both "ABC" and "easy to steal from" based on a couple of isolated hands.
I'm already re-evaluating my risk-aversion statement above. Perhaps you'd rather conserve your chips here precisely because your BB opponent (on the hands where you have button) is so easy to steal from.
You could very well fold here, with the intention moving all-in exactly one orbit from now.
This is very tough, since ATo is generally a huge 3-way hand. Your opponent being ABC is troublesome, but is this the kind of ABC player who would re-raise in a 3-handed game with very good 3-way hands like 77 or A6o? That is, is this a straightforward player who also knows how to accurately adjust hand values for a shorthanded game?
ScottyZ
With few people left and I’m small stacked I usually play hyper aggressive
Full table situations, early position, Axs, small pairs, JQo, etc... he pushes them hard preflop, calls raises that he shouldn't call, and hits.
No. He doesn't play a lot of NL tournaments, and I'm sure he hasn't put any 'serious' thought into the game.
No... I think he'd probably just call.
I didn't have much more to go on... he was at the other table, so I only got to play with him after the 'merge'. What I saw was however consistent with what I was told about him. Outside, during the break, I ask a respected player: "Is the chip leader any good?" and I get "Umm... he doesn't play much at all. He's been hitting."
I thought so too, that's why I posted it here.
I think he'll continue to play the same hands shorthanded that he considered to be 'strong' at a full table, and no more. The problem is, his full-table starting requirements looked a lot like my shorthanded ones.
BigChrisEl:
Thanks for the feedback... I think there are cases to be made for both calling and folding, and I'm looking forward to seeing which gets more votes.
Anyone think I made a mistake by raising to 1800 preflop?
Regards,
all_aces
On a hand like that you have to decide if you are willing to call an all-in when betting pre-flop just incase some one comes back at you with it. So when you made the bet were you willing to go all in?
Hard to say. You've described your opponent as both easy to steal from, and as making some very dubious calls in raised pre-flop pots.
If your opponent *is* actually easy to steal from, then steal from him. I'll make it 1,800 to go with a 32o there in this case.
I'm going to think some more on the original problem. The first thing I need to figure out is whether your further description made the question easier or harder.
EVIL
ScottyZ
Well, that lifted a good deal of the fog.
Unfortunately it seems that the lifting of the fog was from the Scottish moors directly into my brain.
In short, regarding whether or not to steal here, I haven't the foggiest.
ScottyZ
You will be at 4200 chips, less than half of the SB and less than 25% of the BB. Is the SB the kind of player that might put the pressure on you next hand by trying to steal your big blind? How will you react? Are you in a position next hand where you will defend regardless of your holding? If so, it boils down to this: would you rather take your A T up against an unknown but likely decent-to-better-than-average holding right now, getting 2.5 to 1 on your 4200, OR would you rather take your 4200 next hand up against a steal attmept by the current SB. THis second scenario would see you getting poorer odds with a random hand against a random hand.
I say push it now and hope you catch a card. A T is good enough - how good does it need to be getting 2.5 to 1 on your final chips? If you win, you are in strong shape to win it all. If you lose, you finish 3rd, but that's the likely result of this tourny if you fold now anyway...you will be playing uphill with 4200 and the blinds hitting you next 2 hands. What are the chances of getting dealt a better starting hand than A T over the next two deals? Anyone, Bueller? Anyone?
Your 1800 was a good bet to find out where the BB was at and it took out the SB....now you know where you are at - the BB put you to a decision. I think your 1800 raise has committed you to going in. The funny thing is, if both the SB and the BB were involved, you would definitely push all your chips in but you would feel much more vulnerable with your A T. Therefore I think this broke pretty well for you - push it in.
Careful. He's getting about 1.6 to 1 pot odds here.
If he was actually getting 2.5 to 1 pot odds, this is an pretty easy call with any two, and super easy with ATo.
ScottyZ
My feeling is that this is an incredibly close decision. Calling all-in is absolutely a sensible option, and a good play.
It's sort of hard to even explain *why* I would fold here. It's purely a gut feeling. My gut tells me that an inexperienced player has a strong hand here to re-raise you all-in.
In fact, if he actually made it another 5,000 to go, this shows that he may not even have been paying attention to your stack size at all, and is actually willing to put another 5,000 plus future bets into the pot.
The alternative is that he *is* aware that you are almost all-in, and therefore may believe you will be quite likely to call his re-raise. He may also believe you have a good chance of calling simply becuase you already showed strangth by raising. In these cases, an opponent who expects you to call is probably not bluffing.
I think I am at least confident that your opponent is not bluffing here. He has (what he thinks is) a strong hand. The difficulty here is what exactly is a strong hand from the point of view of your opponent? You have described him as overvaluing hands (severely at times), and playing the overvalued hands aggressively. Again, it's merely my instincts telling me that he has a stronger hand than even he would consider strong.
If you fold here, you have 4,200 chips remaining. This is *not* a desparately short stack at 300-600, though it is definitely short. You are not going to be forced to defend your big blind next hand I think.
Folding a (3-handed) hand as good as ATo strikes me as *very* unusual, and it sort of makes me queasy just thinking about it. If someone really *hates* folding here, I can honestly see where they're coming from.
I'm just going with my gut on this one, and I'm thinking your hand is no good this particular time.
ScottyZ
P.S. I'm pretty sure I would have called if I was actually the one playing in real-time. Although it probably sounds contradictory, it took me a long time thinking about the hand to develop my gut feeling. :cool:
With A To, you are a slight dog vs. an underpair so the 1.6 to 1 requires a call.
Against a hi pair (JJ QQ or KK) you should fold - 1.6 to 1 isn't enough. But against hi connectors or two Paint, you are favoured. So, unless you have a strong suspicion that the player has JJ or a better pair, you've gotta go in.
For the record, Scotty, I've looked at this a long time and have swung around full circle from my initial hunch. I initially said (to myself) FOLD FOLD warning! warning! BUt when you look at it, with many of the hands your opponent may have, the math says call. And even if he's got JJ or QQ or KK, you've got outs - you're a 30% proposition (not exactly Buster Douglass vs. Mike Tyson, and it worked out for Buster).
Look at the other side of the coin. Lets say you fold (and I agree, you could easily fold and keep folding - nothing requires a blind defense in the next couple of hands). But say you get rags the next 2 orbits (what are the odds of getting nothing better than A To over the next 6 deals?) You are now down to 2400 assuming no increase in the blinds. Now lets say you double through...you are at approx 4800 (depending on who paid blinds). You are still behind where you were before the hand in question (more precisely, before the 1800 bet by our HERO). So, I must say that by betting the 1800, you should stick to your guns - this is your hill to die on. It just seems that the opponent has a range of possible holdings, and the chances of him holding one of the 4 scary pocket pairs is pretty slim.....and if he flips over QQ, maybe you river an Ace and tilt the SOB.
Humbly,
the Nurse
I would plan on moving all-in with any two cards on my next button, remembering the assessment that the BB was easy to steal from.
I know the arguments for not folding are extremely good, and it's nearly impossible to logically/mathematically argue for folding. Believe me, I do *NOT* think that calling is bad at all.
I'm just going on instinct for this one. :cool:
ScottyZ
The BB flipped over AJo.
The board ended up being: xxJxT, and I was out.
I called hoping that he had a weaker ace (probably suited) or a pocket pair, less than ten. Obviously, I was disappointed to see the AJ.
In retrospect, I think I probably should have folded, and not just because I lost. 4200 is still an intimidating raise at the 300/600 level, and the BB would have coughed up a few blinds to me, I think. The SB was a good player, very patient, and good at switching gears. At that time, though, it seemed to me that he was in 'low gear', so I probably had another couple of rounds before he'd stop crediting me for big hands and start playing back at me.
As Scotty pointed out, 'real time' decisions are a little tougher to make, so hopefully I'll be able to keep all of this in mind next time it happens to me in the heat of battle.
Again, thanks for the replies, and any further thoughts on this situation are most welcome.
Regards,
all_aces
This is based on me being a player sort of like the BB, i know i don't defend my blind as well as i should against an agressive stealer. But if i raise back a guy raising at me, they should get out of the way cause i'm pushing back with a premium hand.
It's not a precise science, but i would say that when a guy who hardly ever plays back against your raises pushes back ... there is nothing wrong with getting out of the way. Since every 3 hands you'll get a chance to steal his BB on the button.
This is based on me being a player sort of like the BB, i know i don't defend my blind as well as i should against an agressive stealer. But if i raise back a guy raising at me, they should get out of the way cause i'm pushing back with a premium hand.
It's not a precise science, but i would say that when a guy who hardly ever plays back against your raises pushes back ... there is nothing wrong with getting out of the way. Since every 3 hands you'll get a chance to steal his BB on the button.
Still i would have pegged the BB on any PP T or over, AK, AQ or the overplayed KQ, so i'm obviously misreading what type of player you were talking about