donkey test question 27
with this question, i'm mainly interested on what cards you put a 'solid tight aggressive winning player' on here
==========
5/10 NL Cash game, $1,000 stacks. A solid tight aggressive winning player limps in middle position.
Folded to you in the big blind. Your image is tight aggressive. You hold:
:2h :4c
You check. Flop:
:2s :4h :7d
You lead for $35, the limper raises to $120. Which is a better option?
Fold
Raise all-in
===========
what does he limp with in MP? small pair, suited connectors, big cards, suited ace?
does he raise with any 2 after the flop? or only if he caught a piece? with an overpair? or all of the above? 2 pr is pretty unlikely...
a set is possible but given the range of hands i believe a player of this level would raise with, i believe you are ahead and should push rather than fold here.
==========
5/10 NL Cash game, $1,000 stacks. A solid tight aggressive winning player limps in middle position.
Folded to you in the big blind. Your image is tight aggressive. You hold:
:2h :4c
You check. Flop:
:2s :4h :7d
You lead for $35, the limper raises to $120. Which is a better option?
Fold
Raise all-in
===========
what does he limp with in MP? small pair, suited connectors, big cards, suited ace?
does he raise with any 2 after the flop? or only if he caught a piece? with an overpair? or all of the above? 2 pr is pretty unlikely...
a set is possible but given the range of hands i believe a player of this level would raise with, i believe you are ahead and should push rather than fold here.
Comments
It's not necessarily what I would do, but I think given only the two options, folding is the better one.
/g2
Edit: Also... how does that line go... "don't go broke in an unraised pot"
I would agree with pkrfce9 that there is a good chance that the two pair is good and I would personally reraise. However, since a smaller raise or calling is not an option, folding is better than going all-in and risking your whole $955 stack just to win a $175 pot ($20 + 35 + 120).
Even if you think that the chances of the solid winning player reraising with a set is as low as 16%, then moving all-in has negative expectation.
x = probability of opponent having a better hand.
EV = 0 = -$955 * x + (1-x) * $175
0 = -955x + 175 - 175x
1,130x = 175
x = 15.5%
As long as you think there is at least a ~16% chance that your opponent has a better hand, then folding with 0 EV is better than moving all-in.
P.S. I checked what I answered on the test and I incorrectly chose ALL-IN. :fish: By doing post-hand analysis, I can make better decisions in the future for similar situations.
PPS. Test Question 27b)
You actually raise all-in. Your opponent calls, says that he has trip 7s, then proposes running it three times. Which of the following is the most accurate statement?
1) You agree to run it 3x since your -EV will improve the more times you run it.
2) You decline the offer since running it more than once will worsen your EV.
3) You don't really care since you know that your EV will remain the same.
i would have preferred a re-raise option (not all in). i hadn't considered that although chances are we are ahead now, the few times we get called hurt a hell of a lot.
reminds me of the time i saw a MP limper push all in for 350+ against a 'steal' raise of 20 from the BB only to be instantly called. T8o vs AA generally does not fair well.
to me it boils down to what range of hands he would raise the flop with. is there a chance he does this with any 2 cards, knowing you can't call unless you've got something better than top pair? would he do this with top pair? any pair? is it conceivable he limped in with 87s, A7s and would raise the flop?
agreed, he only calls with a better hand (set, maybe top 2 pr?) so there are only 5 hands that likely call the all-in. my question is how many hands could he raise with? if we can get that into the 30 range or higher, pushing becomes the better option.