Cash - Is My Overbet Profitable?

Two hands to follow:

Villian is like 18/12 in 75ish hands.

The first hand took place about 3 hands before the second one. I am showing it for context because he took forever on all of his decisions following my donkbet. He had a real hard time laying his hand down.

villain is UTG

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

UTG ($10.50)
MP ($15)
Button ($10.05)
SB ($6.50)
Hero ($11.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8d, 7d.
UTG raises to $0.4, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30.

Flop: ($0.85) 2d, 8s, 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1.

Turn: ($2.85) 9c (2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4.8, Hero raises to $10.1, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $17.75


3 Hands later we are here:

Same Villain now in position on the button.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

Button ($9.95)
SB ($4.85)
BB ($15)
UTG ($10.05)
MP ($6.45)
Hero ($17.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ad, Ks.
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.5, Button calls $0.50, 2 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($1.25) 7c, 7s, Ac (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Button raises to $2.5, Hero raises to $16.85, Button folds.

Final Pot: $20.60


Normally I would manage the pot in this situation. Give him poor odds and try to build a pot without scaring him away. He probably has Ax here and is drawing really slim and is unlikely holding a big under pair (this guy probably would have re-popped me pre-flop with KK QQ JJ.

I figured that he was maybe a bit tilty after the previoius hand and I had been playing very aggressively at this table. He was probably getting tired of my shit!

I figured if my read is correct I can get him to blow off his stack if he holds A-10 or better and if not I'm not getting anymore money out of him on the trun and the river anyway.

Question(s):

Do you think this play is profitable?

How would you proceed?

Comments

  • Just call and checkraise the turn all-in sounds good if he's tilty. Give him a chance to bluff off more of his stack.
  • SirWatts wrote: »
    Just call and checkraise the turn all-in sounds good if he's tilty. Give him a chance to bluff off more of his stack.
    Agreed, throwing $15 more into a $6 pot is too much to entice a tilt-call. Just call the flop and most of the time he'll throw some more money in on the turn, hopefully enough to get him committed.

    /g2
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