donkey test question 8
ok, maybe this was obvious to some of you but i'd like to discuss to see how you reason your way through this:
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5/10 NL Cash game. 9 handed. You have $1,000. A very tight but inexperienced player with $1,000 makes standard raise to $40 from early position.
You are on the button and call with:
:9h :9s
Flop:
:9c :kd :as
UTG player bets $60, you raise to $200, and he re-raises to $500.
What should you do?
Raise all in for $1,000
Fold
Min Raise to $800
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first of all does very tight mean he'd only raise UTG with AA, KK and AK or is he so tight he wouldn't raise with AK? (i've read somewhere that very tight players won't raise with AK...hmmm)
if we assume his range here includes AK, then statistically, there are more combinations with AK than AA and KK combined (16 vs 12), so we are more likely to be ahead. then he's got 4 outs, something in the neighbourhood of 15-20% by the river to suck out like mario.
assuming we are ahead then, what is the best play? how do we get all his chips? the key here may be the word inexperienced. is he married to his AK like shopsy? is there any compelling reason to raise all-in here? would an all-in scare him away? i think maybe it could. there's a chance he may look for a reason to escape with half his stack still intact. so then i think a min-raise is our best chance to end up with all his chips.
let me know your reasoning for seeing things differently. do we need to look at the EV for each potential hand he could be playing to determine the best play?
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5/10 NL Cash game. 9 handed. You have $1,000. A very tight but inexperienced player with $1,000 makes standard raise to $40 from early position.
You are on the button and call with:
:9h :9s
Flop:
:9c :kd :as
UTG player bets $60, you raise to $200, and he re-raises to $500.
What should you do?
Raise all in for $1,000
Fold
Min Raise to $800
=========
first of all does very tight mean he'd only raise UTG with AA, KK and AK or is he so tight he wouldn't raise with AK? (i've read somewhere that very tight players won't raise with AK...hmmm)
if we assume his range here includes AK, then statistically, there are more combinations with AK than AA and KK combined (16 vs 12), so we are more likely to be ahead. then he's got 4 outs, something in the neighbourhood of 15-20% by the river to suck out like mario.
assuming we are ahead then, what is the best play? how do we get all his chips? the key here may be the word inexperienced. is he married to his AK like shopsy? is there any compelling reason to raise all-in here? would an all-in scare him away? i think maybe it could. there's a chance he may look for a reason to escape with half his stack still intact. so then i think a min-raise is our best chance to end up with all his chips.
let me know your reasoning for seeing things differently. do we need to look at the EV for each potential hand he could be playing to determine the best play?
Comments
As far as the hand in question, since this is post-flop, he actually has 9 ways for AK and 6 ways for AA/KK, so it's actually even more likely he has AK if that's in his range. I think that most tight players would play AK, and an inexperienced one would see it near the top of most of their starting hand guides, and not realize how vulnerable it can be. Being inexperienced, it is also unlikely that they would get away from top 2. Because of this you beat his range 60% of the time (post-flop), so I wouldn't give this hand up.
If you are staying with the hand, the question is how to get all his chips in. You can't actually push for $1000 considering the $40 pre-flop, so the difference between an all-in and a min-bet is only $160. Also, min-bets smell a lot fishier than normal bets regardless of their size. Personally, I think it is more likely they fold to a min-bet than an all-in (although still unlikely). Most inexperienced players are a bit scared to build big pots, but 3-betting for half their stack - they aren't folding.
So I guess I vote for A.
let's assume the discussion here is now to push or fold.
there's 795 in the pot now. you are considering putting another 760 into the pot to win a pot of 1255 (not counting your additional 760)
9/15 (courtesy of beanie) of the time he has AK. you have 83% chance to win the 1255 and a 17% chance to lose that 760 when you get sucked out. this nets out to approx +547
6/15 of the time he has AA or KK. you have just over 4% chance to win the 1255 when you suck out and a 96% chance to lose that 760 when you do not. this nets out to approx -272.
so it looks like pushing here is +EV to the tune of approx 275. any discussion on this? have i messed it up somewhere?
as for pushing vs min-raising... say there is a 10% chance it will chase AK away. what happens to the EV here? i say it actually increases. EV goes up the higher the likelihood your opponent is to fold. i leave it to the reader to work that out.
some people actually see value in working this stuff out to understand why certain decisions in certain situations are better than others. some answers are more obvious than others of course...
and no, we don't work this out at the table. we do the work up front so it becomes instinctual at the table.
What's the rake BTW...it will change your numbers.
"I look down and find 73o. Normally I would just throw this away in this spot, but then the guy showed me pocket twos, the small and big folded out of turn. I just felt that I was good. I had missed my 45/51 when I was slightly behind coin flips the last 9 times in a row. Variance should kick in right?"
Thought hed have a good joke to crack, I was bored