WSOP Hand for discussion
Here is an actual hand from this year’s WSOP that has taken a LONG time to think through. I think it is the interesting sort of a thing that the very best players will do, that I am not yet capable of seeing quickly. It takes me a long time to sort these things out.
Here is the hand…
There are 240 players left in the $10K WSOP Championship and 225 get paid. You have $40K in chips. The average stack is just over $100K. The blinds are $1,000-2,000 and there is a $200 ante.
You have been at your new table for three laps of the button. On the first two laps of the button you have stolen a VERY AGGRESSIVE player’s big blind when folded to you on the button. You know this player from TV and by reputation, but he does not know anything about you. After you steal his blind for a second time you notice that he studies you long and hard. He has a lot of chips. You conclude that he is going to play back at you if you try and steal his big blind again. You resolve to lift your thumb off on the next lap. Then, on the very next lap it is folded to you on the button. You check your cards and discover A-K.
What do you do?
Here is the hand…
There are 240 players left in the $10K WSOP Championship and 225 get paid. You have $40K in chips. The average stack is just over $100K. The blinds are $1,000-2,000 and there is a $200 ante.
You have been at your new table for three laps of the button. On the first two laps of the button you have stolen a VERY AGGRESSIVE player’s big blind when folded to you on the button. You know this player from TV and by reputation, but he does not know anything about you. After you steal his blind for a second time you notice that he studies you long and hard. He has a lot of chips. You conclude that he is going to play back at you if you try and steal his big blind again. You resolve to lift your thumb off on the next lap. Then, on the very next lap it is folded to you on the button. You check your cards and discover A-K.
What do you do?
Comments
Hmmm... say "this time I actually mean it", and then make it 12K? Personally, I don't think folding is an option, even though you're risking your tournament if you play. If he has a mountain of chips, 12K might not be enough to lose him, so you might have to just go ahead and move in. Basically, I think you should raise more than you did the last two times, because you don't want to be called by him (at least, I wouldn't... by just about anyone else, maybe, but not by him). How do you communicate to someone that you actually mean business after you've been stealing from them?
I guess my answer is, raise really big or move in, depending on his stack and the size of your previous two raises. And say something like "this time I mean it" if that's allowed, and is acceptable behaviour, etiquette-wise. I wouldn't want a call from this particular guy with those chips at that particular stage of that particular tournament, but I wouldn't be able to bring myself to fold or limp preflop, either.
Regards,
all_aces
For those who aren't familiar with RGP, some of the opinions given there are a little sketchy. But, my opinion here may in fact have been even more sketchy, because ALL of the responses given at RGP so far indicate that you should want to be called.
Personally, I don't think I would. I know that AK is a powerful starting hand, but if you raise, and he plays back at you on a move (which he likey would), and you move in, by that point the pot will very likely dictate a call to be correct on his part with any two cards. AK isn't that big a favourite against Q4... not big enough to risk your whole tournament on, that late in the game...
Yes, this is damage control, and second-guessing.
I limp in for the minimum here. You mentioned that the player had been studying your (or your friends) play. He will have noticed that unlike the previous orbits you didn't push hard, and may even interprete this as a classic (weakness means strength situation) ... the limp may give him pause.
In this situation the SB may end up coming along for the ride, which is a risk.
possibility 1. The BB may check and decide to check in this situation, not wanting to step into a possible trap by you. this is based on the assumption that he truely believed you were stealing before and believes your limp-in is a sign of weakness. You hit an ace or king push in, or even try to steal it after the flop representing a large pp that you slow played.
possibility 2. The BB now may push back hard and if he does. You'll have to decide how much the 10,000 means to you in this situation, vs. having a higher probability of getting back to an average chip stack.
You do have one small benefit though if you end up folding here. The players at the table may incorrectly read you as a weak player who limped in with any two cards on the button. This may be useful later if you have great cards and want to generate action, since your limp-in will likely again result in a big push back by the agressive player in the blind. Plus for the minimum bet you had a decent chance of seeing the flop.
Also, Macs point about blinds/antes eating you up is valid too. You are less than half the average chip count, which puts the leaders far out in front of you. And time is running out. 5K a lap gives you only 8 laps on your 40K. And that's IF the blinds don't go up in 8 laps. So you have to get busy. Soon! No choice.
I guess the questions you have to ask yourself at this particular point in the tourney are....
1. "Will 15 other people get knocked out before your 40K is gone, so you can make the money, and will it happen in less than 8 laps?"
2. "Am I just trying to finish in the money, or do I want a shot at the final table?"
Given all these circumstances, I'd push it all in preflop and make him decide. Which tells you where I stand on the second one. lol And if he folds I'd lay it down too, to show you weren't bluffing with garbage. Then he can study that too. lol
I am loving it (damn marketing getting into my brain...) if my opponent has (even non-dominated) trash like Q4.
Even though all_aces points out (correctly so) that a call of 20K more with Q4 after the re-raise is not a FTOP mistake in terms of EV, re-raising to ~20K with that particular hand is a pretty big FTOP mistake. (That is, if the re-raise comes with the intention of calling an all-in bet... it is not obvious to me that this would in fact be the intention. Not calling would merely delay the FTOP mistake by one betting action.)
Your opponent would only making a good play by calling because the (FTOP) correct calling situation was set up by a bad FTOP error.
I think limping-in here or raising smaller than standard isn't a good play. You're asking for serious trouble by trying to get this cute with AKo here. If you feel a strong need to vary your bet size here (I don't see why you would), pushing all-in seems better than going small to me.
[You mean show the hand, right? I've typically heard "lay it down" as another way of saying "folding".]
I would *not* do this particularly because of what you said next:
I'm dying to know how it turned out. Rot13! Rot13!
ScottyZ
stp
NOTE: As long as you are comfortable going out short of the money in this sitaution, then i think without question the right move is to simply push ALL-IN.
If you get no callers the money in the pot is good enough and if he calls you got your money in and made him call a premium hand that should double you up
(1) A-K is MUCH too good in this spot to fold. That would be grotesque. It might actually be your best way of “making the money†but you are essentially giving up on winning or placing high in the money and with $40K still in front of you that would be a terrible shame.
(2) Moving all-in. Also not the best play. You have taken a hugely profitable situation and reduced it to being marginally so. You are risking $40K to win $4800. Sure, you minimize the chance that he will call and you will go broke, but you are – once again – giving up on building some chips and getting back into the raise.
(3) Make a standard raise and then re-raise all in or call when he plays back at you. This is a perfectly acceptable play. You will get your chips all-in with A-K against a random hand if your instincts are correct. In actual fact, this is the play that was made. Ralph made it $6K. World Class Por (WCP) re-raises to $20K and Ralph moved in. WCP called and showed K-T. Flopped a ten and beat the A-K. A dream come true, with a bad result.
(4) Limping in. This is, I think, the best play. Moving in is too big a risk for too small a reward. Limping in may offer a big reward for a small risk. It is possible that WCP will sense a trap and simply check pre-flop. In which case you are in position to see the flop and make a decision having only risked $2K of your stack. There is also a VERY GOOD chance that WCP will put you on an “implied odds†hand like 6-6 and decide he will take you off it pre-flop. After all, you are probably just some stupid internet player. When he re-raises pre-flop YOU move-in. With that sequence of betting your hand screams “big hand†and he will fold A LOT of hands.
The power of A-K is in the semi-bluff. Yes, it is a strong hand but you almost ALWAYS prefer to take the pot pre-flop with A-K. The question becomes “Can I manipulate the betting in this hand to add some fold equity?†Putting in a standard raise adds ZERO fold equity because you KNOW that WCP will play back and get pot committed because of your small stack.
true, you have no fold equity with the #4 option...but i really don't think you want fold equity here...
you are shortstacked by a decent margin, you are given a good hand (AK isn't *that* overrated), and you are on the tournament bubble...you need chips now to make a play for a higher finish, and not a 225th finish (isn't that what you're supposed to shoot for?).....and on top of all this, the circumstances are such that you *know* an aggressive player in the blinds, with lots of chips, will most likely make a play back at you if you make your standard raise....forget the fact that he's a pro, i think this is the ideal situation when you are hoping for a double-up with a good hand...
you know the pro will make a reraise with almost any hand in this situation...so, his hand will, on average, be worse than yours...and if indeed he does choose the reraise route, and he's likely to still throw away complete crap, then there is a good chance he holds an ace or a king, and is completely dominated (the ideal situation, and exactly what happened)....i think you play it exactly the way it went down....make your standard raise, let him reraise, then push in.......obviously, you'd prefer an even better hand to double up with, but given the situation in the tournament, you have to use this opportunity
granted, i've only played online tournaments, mostly smaller stakes, but this is what i think, for what its worth
ps. the other problem i have with limping in is that the small blind will likely see the flop as well...and why take the chance that he hits something....i don't know what his chip situation was, but maybe u end up pushing in on the flop, and getting called by the person you weren't thinking about
You're getting a 60-40 edge against a lot of random hands, a coin toss (I can imagine Dave cringing) against pairs QQ and below, and you're a monster of a favorite against any Ace or King. Furthermore (ignoring the dreaded AA and KK), small pairs and suited connectors will actually give you the worst time of it, while you're golden against (unpaired) Aces or Kings. A WCP might be more comfortable making his/her stand with the latter types of hands, since he/she is probably assuming that Ralph is himself on a random holding.
I'm not convinced that it's bad for me to get my chips in right now in lieu of waiting for a bigger edge down the tournament road.
The various options are really all about risk aversion of course, but I find it hard to imagine being so risk averse that you're going to pass on the "Get the money all-in free" card you've just pulled off of the Chance pile here. Manufacturing a better edge later on in the tournament than getting 40K all-in pre-flop with AKo versus a (at least somewhat) random hand is going to be difficult.
Of course, sneaking into 225th may also be a real consideration. However, it seems to me that with 1K-2K, a200 blinds and 100K average stack, a 40K stack size is teetering on the iffy zone of being able to fold into the money. IMO, it's neither a dangerously short stack, nor a smooth sailing stack if making 225th place is a goal here.
There's plenty of food for thought here. Great thread! :cool:
And Dave, c'mon and let us off the hook for crying out loud. Who was the WCP?
ScottyZ
(1) Move all in with your A-K and get called by a random hand; or
(2) Limp in, get raised by a random hand, and then re-raise all-in with your A-K.
This is the situation as it was perceived. There was, of course, no guarantee that the WCP would have raised the limp in. If he does not then you are correct, you find yourself in the tricky situation of having to play A-K post-flop. I do, however much prefer option (2) to option (1).
The WCP was Mike Matusow.
(2) Limp in, get raised by a random hand, and then re-raise all-in with your A-K.
im definitely liking 2 better, since youre making your opponent consider your holdings twice. in addition, if you want to send the message that 'ive got a big hand', the raise after the limp-in would do that far better than the one all-in IMO.
however i think that a raise (of the same amount) preflop would be more effective, since a limp might suggest a powerful hand, and he might very well check to see a flop (possibly bringing the SB into the picture as well). you have the luxury of a powerful hand so if he does play back at you, you can most likely be sure that you will be ahead
i'd have to be able to figure the odds of him raising if i limped...if its even 50% that he doesn't raise and the SB completes his blind, then i prefer #2.......also, how is the tournament going wrt people being knocked out (ie. approx. how many more orbits will it take to reach 225 people?)......and, is winning 2k or 5k as profit (i'm guessing 225th gets around 12-15k?) going to be something you are satisified with?....i mean, if you are not willing to be aggressive with this hand, in this spot, you are basically willing to fold your way into the money unless you are dealt a really high pocket pair (even then, if you get QQ UTG, what are you going to do if you are that set on just reaching the money?)
i guess its all personal preference as to what you are aiming for...and that guides your decision...
but for argument's sake, go with #1, and let's say you limp and he raises.....you reraise all-in, and he folds....that means you gain approx. 10-12k in chips, depending on what he raises to.....this puts you at 50-52k in total chips........is this a much better position to be in than 40k? i'm not so sure ....stealing previous blinds, and now having a big hand, i think you've set a trap for this aggressive player to fall into, and i still play it the same way as my original post
Compared to a 30% chance of going bust or double up? I will take the $12K anytime.
So, let me see if I can crunch the numbers.
I think it matters a fair bit how much you think the BB will raise by exactly if you limp.
Let's say you assume the BB makes a pot-limit style raise. Assuming the SB folds (the SB is something that hasn't even entered the discussion yet) that's around 7K. Maybe the BB makes it an even 10K.
So it's:
(1) Assume some risk and have the chance to win ~45K (including the blinds).
(2) Pick up the blinds and the raise with pretty much no risk for a total windfall of around 15K.
But then there's also result #3:
(3) BB checks pre-flop. (Possibly the SB calls too?)
The original philosopy was that the BB was getting sick of Ralph's pre-flop stealing. If Ralph suddenly calms down and just calls, won't the BB enjoy this? Besides giving away the information that your hand is big, the main risk you run is that your limping will simply please the BB, and cancel the Auto-Raise Sequence (as long as Number One concurs) which was initiated by the previous two steals.
In the third case, you're getting into the unpleasent realm of being up some kind of creek with no outboard motor. You risk winning the blinds only, you risk getting out-flopped. Basically, you risk being infected with the rampant "AK wins a small pot and loses a big pot" virus when you start noodling around with it post-flop.
That seems like a lot of risks for the low-risk scenario.
Even forgetting about number (3) completely, I'm still leaning towards liking number (1). But I'll have to admit that number (2) is beginning to not look quite as out of this world as it first struck me.
ScottyZ
Compared to a 30% chance of going bust or double up? I will take the $12K anytime.'
ok then.....what about a 20% chance? AA vs a decent hand like QTs 99 or some such thing....its about 80-20 you win
btw, nice thread, thanks for posting
Maybe. In the hand as it was played, I doubt it. Will the WCP limp in the big blind with K-T? Doubt it. You think playing A-K in an unraised pot is trouble, try playing K-T!
Given that Ralph is short stacked (at $40K) this probably does not apply. He is likely to get paid off if he hits his hand. So... it is WIN big pot (double through) or LOSE big pot (go bust).
Paul Phillips once said something that has SIGNIFICANTLY altered the way I play no-limit. To paraphrase, Paul said something like: "A lot of player are terrified of playing post flop. Why? If you think you are capable of making better decisions than your opponent then you will frequently win more chips by getting your opponent to see the flop."
So what if it turns into a limpfest? You are very likely the best hand. You will very likely get paid off. You might go broke. Kay-serah-serah. He didn't fall for your trap? YOu have risked $2000 to see a flop and you probably have the best hand. Bring it on.
I'm not too sure about that. His stack isn't *that* short. He's got about 33K left to play with into a 7K pot, and I'd be surprised if a lot of random hands are going to be enough in love with an A-high or K-high flop to see their hand through to the end for the extra 33K if they can't beat top pair.
And I certainly get your point about not being afraid to limp in often if you are a good post-flop player. (See, for example, "The Art of the Limp-Steal" by D. Scharf, Journal of PokerForum.ca, (2004) Vol. 2) Maybe that's also a nice reason for the BB to rap the table with KT (or whatever his random hand turns out to be) after the button limp.
I still think it's just too perfect to pick up a very big hand after running two successful steals in a row, even forgetting about the rest of the story. When you throw in the juicy tidbit about how your BB opponent is probably juiced up to re-steal, how can I resist that kind of juicy opportinity man?!?
Mmmm...relish.
BTW, I think Ralph deserves a great deal of credit for so precisely nailing down the read on this situation in such a stressful setting. There are at least 2 players from out west whom I am deathly afraid of ever playing poker against. :cool:
Doesn't it sound dorky to actually use the word "whom"?
ScottyZ
How big of an ass did he make of himself after he won the hand?
And why does he think he is so great? What was the last major tourney he won? Everytime I see the guy make a final table he flushes his tourney away either by shooting himself in the foot or by walking into a trap Mr. Magoo could see coming.
At the end of day three with an average stack he raises in late position with K-Qo. BB (weak player) calls. Flop is K-Q-5. BB bet flop, turn, and river. Ralph never puts in a raise and survives against BB's 5-5. Wow. I would have gone broke on the hand for sure.
His stack is short enough that if the flop is A-7-2 and someone with an ace bets out he will almost certainly call Ralph's all in move.
I actually remember hearing about that hand. Amazing.
I'd certainly agree with that.
I guess I was thinking of a random hand other than an Ace or King high.
Maybe I should have said "beat (or tie) top pair" in the following:
Surely you will get paid off by some of the random hands (as in your A-high example). I guess what proportion of the hands could realistically lead to you getting paid off (when you hit) is the question.
ScottyZ
Of course none of us know if MM would have called the hand or not had Ralph went all-in preflop but we can all agree that it was LESS likely. I like what a previous poster said about all-in preflop and then flipping the cards over when MM folds, this could set you up for future hands/steals.
Dave said that AK is not the type of hand you want to play postflop, try and get as many chips as you can in preflop by manipulating the betting and take it down then. I totally agree. Sometimes though, all you can get preflop are the blinds. Be happy with the blinds, you are still in the tournament and you just won another hand.
stp