Easy fold? - SNG bubble hand
I don't have the hand history, but the scenario in this 9 person sng is as follows:
4 players left, blinds are at 75-150, increasing shortly, stacks are:
SB-~$4,100
BB-$4,000 <----Me
UTG-$5,000
Button-$400
The button player has been sitting out for the past 20-30 minutes and isn't coming back. So....we have a situation where the remaining players can check-fold into the money, in a very short period of time.
Reads:
UTG is very ABC, haven't seen calling/aggression without a hand.
SB has often been stealing, will bet at unraised pots, and will bet at scare cards.
From the BB I am dealt 3H, 3D. UTG calls, button auto-folds, SB calls, and I check.
Flop comes JH, 3S, 10H.
SB bets $450. I ...?
The more that I think about it, the more I think that this should be the easiest fold ever. Even though I'm likely ahead here, the board isn't the friendliest...In a very short period of time, the button will be blinded off. Giving up on this hand here won't cost all that much in terms of chip position...
Results of what actually happened to follow....
4 players left, blinds are at 75-150, increasing shortly, stacks are:
SB-~$4,100
BB-$4,000 <----Me
UTG-$5,000
Button-$400
The button player has been sitting out for the past 20-30 minutes and isn't coming back. So....we have a situation where the remaining players can check-fold into the money, in a very short period of time.
Reads:
UTG is very ABC, haven't seen calling/aggression without a hand.
SB has often been stealing, will bet at unraised pots, and will bet at scare cards.
From the BB I am dealt 3H, 3D. UTG calls, button auto-folds, SB calls, and I check.
Flop comes JH, 3S, 10H.
SB bets $450. I ...?
The more that I think about it, the more I think that this should be the easiest fold ever. Even though I'm likely ahead here, the board isn't the friendliest...In a very short period of time, the button will be blinded off. Giving up on this hand here won't cost all that much in terms of chip position...
Results of what actually happened to follow....
Comments
/g2
well put, i'd prolly just shove here, or put in a big raise anyway.
If you're wanting to make the money and dont think you can get Mr. SB off the hand. I just call here. I actually may just call here anyway and see what the turn brings. Any 8 or 9 really scares me and I likely go into check/call/fold mode. It takes a pretty good read though to think your hand isn't good in this situation. I would never think that I am not good on that flop, only thing I worry about is being outdrawn.
stp
UTG called, as did SB.
Both players calling didn't feel so great. UTG had KK (that's according to his chat text, he mucked the hand), SB showed QQ. The turn and river were blanks and I won the hand and cruised to the win. The SB was eliminated out of the money, and the player sitting out won 3rd...
Thanks for the advice?
/g2
Why the sarcasm? I post a hand looking for advice. You reply with sarcasm and condescension.
It was a huge $5 sng....sorry that it bothers you to see posts from such miniscule stakes.
Yes, I am a newbie/beginner. I thought that posting hand histories was encouraged by all members, regardless of their poker knowledge. I am here to learn. If you feel that this post is beneath you, just move along. I dont understand why you would need to stroke your own ego by ridiculing others about their stakes/knowledge.
i would not have pushed but raised to maybe 1100 or so. sounds like they would have pushed behind you but i don't know how i'd have layed this down...
You flopped a set, you got all your money in ahead, your hand held up. Why would the thought even cross your mind that you should have folded? Folding, just to probably make the money in a SNG is the weakest play EVER.
Both players called with hands much worse than yours. That should feel great, shouldn't it?
Who cares if they berated you for letting the player sitting out make the money. You won... that should be your only goal in a SNG.
Posting hand histories is encouraged. As long as they aren't bad beats or ones with obvious answers like this one. Please continue to post HHs in the future. A hint to avoiding HHs with obvious answers... if you did the opposite of what you're asking is the right move (fold a set?)... and it worked out OK (you won!)... maybe don't post it.
And I wasn't insulting your stakes. I was insulting the players limping QQ and KK. They are donks AND You beat them. => You are better than donks. So really I was complimenting you. Have a nice day.
/g2
By all means, post your hand histories. In doing so, though, you are going to have to accept the advise being offered. Some of it will be harsh, some of it won't be, but it's all good advise regardless.
As far as your hand history goes, when you flop a set, even a low one, it's a powerful hand. If you lose to it on an uncoordinated board by an over set or a suckout, you're going to lose alot of money. But don't be afraid of betting and raising the pot with it no matter how small.
That's just scared poker. And it's wrong.
Yes, you COULDget outdraw(possible) or MAYBE run into an over-set (unlikely), but thats poker.
Don't be timid and play for 3rd. POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH!!!!!!!!!!
Johnnie.
Of course, this must have been a compliment. I now feel foolish for having assumed it was actually a backhanded way to ridicule/self-aggrandize. I look forward to requesting further advice from stakes as possibly as high as $10 sng's(why not aim for the clouds right?).
Prior to posting requests though, maybe I should find a way to filter it so that it isn't so "dumb". Maybe I can request advice from another forum, say 2+2, and see if they seem to ridicule. Perhaps then I can come back here and see if it meets your specifications for ridicule vs. genuine advice.
Thanks too for asking me to have a nice day, you too!
Sincerely,
A newbie who has been evaluated by /g2 as being better than $1 donks. Yay me!
No, not MORE important...it should be your ONLY goal!!! But you're getting it.
/g2
If you're worried about getting flamed here, you'll get 10 replies 10x more flaming and 10x faster at 2+2 than you'll get from forum member x here.
Now, getting back on topic:
I assume that this:
is what's sticking out for most people as sounding "dumb". You ARE giving up a lot in chip position (by folding). You're giving up a great opportunity to double or (in this case) triple up as a MASSIVE favorite. It's weak tight thinking to pass up a big edge which might have a little more variance just to lock up a small profit.
Many people here will tell you as such...some posters will elaborate as to why your thinking is wrong, or some will be a little more blunt and leave it as an excercise for you to figure it out.
/g2
come to think of it, if someone can limp with QQ or KK, why not TT or JJ? folding is not the most horrible thing you can do here, when you can pretty much lock up 2nd by folding. give both credit for some kind of draw here and it might actually be +EV to fold into 2nd. but i'm too lazy to calculate it now.
But folding here is horrible. If you can find an acceptable way to show that it is +EV to fold here I'll give you all my CPF bucks... AND donk off all my chips to you Friday night at The Shop (that part will probably happen either way).
/g2
the math on this is friggin hard to explain to guys who hate math. (ya that's it.) i'll try to keep the explanation simple... but i do have the spreadsheets to back it up!
before the hand started, i think we could all agree that the BB's equity is just under one-third of the total prize pool. approx 30%. any argument?
so what happens if BB folds? assuming the other 2 go at it (one is either eliminated or on life support along with the short stack). BB is practically guaranteed at least 2nd with approx 30% chance at first based on stacks. BB's equity actually increases to almost 33%!
and what if BB pushes and wins? well, his equity zooms to nearly 50% of the prize pool as he is a virtual lock on taking first place. that is cool.
but if BB pushes and loses? of course, his equity is 0.
so the problem boils down to 'how big a favourite does BB have to be to make pushing MORE EV than folding?' well, he'd have to be at least a 60% favourite to make it a wash. since we are all risk-averse tournament players, let's say 65-70% makes pushing definitely the best choice.
what kind of hand would his opponents need to call here? clearly, an overpair seems to be good enough. for sure higher sets would call. probably even 2pr. and of course a strong draw - and there are flush or straight draws possible. let's put the range at TT+,AhKh,Ah4h,Ah2h,KQs,Q9s,JTs,98s,6h5h,5h4h,KQo,Q9o,JTo,98o
(we can argue that one back and forth i suppose). BB's chance to win against 2 players with this range is less than 55%. in this case BB folding maximizes EV.
can we argue about the opponents' cards? i suppose. but BB is acting not knowing his opponents' cards. SB has made a pot-sized bet into him and there is another player to act behind. both have him covered. we are on the bubble and one player will bust out in a couple hands. either SB is an aggressive player and the others have shown weakness or he has some kind of strong hand. the actual hands were weak compared to BB's (he was >70% to win) but he didn't know that when he acted.
let me know if you need any help transferring those CPF $
You're assuming both will call. And let's keep in mind that hero is ahead here > 90% of the time (based on your range). Not to mention, you don't get overcalls from your opponents there with junk like 98o. If you're going to include worst case scenarios of calling hands like flush and straight draws, you also have to include hands like TPNK, and underpairs as well IMO. So realistically vs. the extremely wide calling range we have now, we can conclude that hero is now probably ahead like >95% of the time (individually). Multiway, hero still has massive equity here vs all the ridiculous hands that are calling. On average vs this liberal calling range, I'm guessing hero's equity is far greater than 70%. I wouldn't be in rush to get those CPF bucks...
i agree both will call is an assumption. tell me what the first guy could call with and what the second would then need to also call.