Donkey Test Question #11
I understand the first ten DonkeyTest.com questions, but being a cash game donkey, I am baffled by question #11:
11. 5/10 NL Cash game. 9 handed. Everyone has about $1,200. UTG raises to $50 and gets two calls from solid tight aggressive players.
You are in the BB with:
:kh :kc
You re-raise to $250 and get three callers.
Flop is:
:qd :8c :3h
You bet $300 on the flop. UTG player calls and a middle position player moves all in for $750 more. What should you do?
Please give the reasoning for your choice.
11. 5/10 NL Cash game. 9 handed. Everyone has about $1,200. UTG raises to $50 and gets two calls from solid tight aggressive players.
You are in the BB with:
:kh :kc
You re-raise to $250 and get three callers.
Flop is:
:qd :8c :3h
You bet $300 on the flop. UTG player calls and a middle position player moves all in for $750 more. What should you do?
Please give the reasoning for your choice.
Comments
what kind of hand does a tight aggressive player need to call an initial 5xBB raise then a 20xBB re-raise when there is only 95xBB left in your stack? what kind of hand would offer 4-1 when pushing? i'd put him on AA, KK or QQ. there are no draws out there and he is counting on getting called. your KK does not stack up well against that range.
i'm guessing the UTG is an ultra-donk although there is no read posted. i'd put him on AQ perhaps. although he too could be slowplaying a monster and you could be walking into some serious hurt. i don't think he would call a big raise with 88 but he could. there's also an outside chance he has QQ or AA i suppose.
either way, your hand isn't much better than TPTK. would you CALL all in with that against 2 players?
I can't see either other player playing any other cards unless it's pocket 8's. If the all in bet is pocket 8's, which only makes sense to me, then UTG is either setting a trap, or is a donk.
As Harrington states, "our first job is to calculate the pot odds." The total pot is currently $2,650 ($250 * 4 + $300 * 3 + $750). The pot odds are $2650-to-$750 or 3.5-to-1. You only have to win 22% of the time to break even.
There are only a few hands your opponents can hold that scare you: Q-Q, A-A and less likely, 8-8 and 3-3. If anybody had A-A, they would much more likely had re-raised your $250 raise instead of flat-calling in a four-way pot. So the most likely scare cards for you is Q-Q. Based on Harrington's methodology below, one would have to be more than 80% sure that your opponent has Q-Q, etc. in order to fold your overpair.
Other possible holdings of our opponents could be: A-Q, K-Q, J-J to 9-9, and less likely A-8, A-3.
Harrington's Law of Bluffing states that the probability that your opponent is bluffing when he shoves a big bet in the pot is always at least 10%. Combining my estimate of the likelihood of each type of hand with the winning probabilities:
1. Minimum 10% chance of a bluff * 80% chance of winning = 8%.
2. 80% chance of Q-Q, etc. * 10% chance of getting another King = 8%.
3. Remaining 10% chance of other holdings * 80% chance of winning = 8%.
My estimate of my total winning probability is 24% (8% + 8% + 8%), which is higher than the break-even percentage. In other words, I will make a profit on average by calling rather than folding.
I realize that the 2+2 test author wanted to create a scenario in which a good player should be able to fold an overpair on the flop, but I think this scenario is a much closer decision than he intended.
Maybe the last caller would be priced-in (Implied odds) for a call but certainly no one else is.
Our re-raise should have been bigger in order to remove all implied odds. Even another $100 making it $350 to go should have been enough.
QQ is the only hand that really makes sense IMO.
As played with no other reads I guess I fold.
I would have raised more pre-flop.
.10/.25 NLHE Stars
I'm dealth KK in early position. I raise to 3xBB (I'd usually raise more, but w/e). 2 callers.
Flop comes Q 7 3 rainbow.
I bet the pot.
First guy to act after me folds.
Second guy pushes. He has a decent stack in front of him and it's a pretty huge overbet.
I think about this for a long time and am about to lay it down. He would have to be insane to do this with less than top 2 pair. I had been playing with this guy for some time now though, and it was clearly obvious he didn't want me to call. Plus I had established the table image of a maniac who bets on every flop this game. Instinct told me to call. I did, bracing myself for the worst. Turn brought another queen. River's a rag. HE MUCKS. I just hope it was through some sort of deep understanding of the player and the situation and not just dumb luck that I won that. :P