Hands for Analysis - #3

GooseGoose
in Brick & Mortar Casino Talk
Continued from:
I was in a local 1/1nl game here in the 'Peg and wanted to share a few intersting hands to get your reactions (the first two I was involved in, the last one I was an observer).

Note: this was a very loose table, lots of pre-flop raising and re-raising with less-than-stellar hands. I had been playing quite loose for the first hour to try and establish a LAGGY image before switching into TAG mode.

Hand #3:

I'm not in this hand

EP maniac who had been raising 70% of his hands raises to $6 and gets 5 callers

Flop: :qc:jd:10d

EP maniac bets $17, 2 folds, MP goes all-in for $25 total, SB then goes all-in for $125 total! EP Maniac looks stunned and spends 5 minutes deciding before finally mucking :qd:qh face up!


MP shows :8h:9h and SB shows :10h:ts. EP raiser goes to the bathroom to be sick :).

Turn and River: :5h:js giving the SB 10s Full.

Your thoughts? Do you make that fold or do you a) go all-in hoping that he has a lower set/2 pair or b) go all-in against the st8 and hope for a suckout boat?

Comments

  • BBC ZBBC Z
    No fold with top set and the Qd.
  • g2g2
    In 5 minutes he couldn't figure out that the SB would just flat call the MP's push if SB had a straight?

    Not worst fold ever, but a really really bad one.

    /g2
  • beanie42beanie42
    I get all my chips in.
    g2 wrote: »
    Not worst fold ever, but a really really bad one.
    You've got 5 outs twice (plus runners), so around 4 to 1 for the full house, and the pots offering just under 2 to 1. I don't think I could make this fold, but I don't see why it's a "really really bad one" (if it's read-based rather than just fear) since it's mathematically correct.
  • g2g2
    beanie42 wrote: »
    You've got 5 outs twice
    I think you misunderstood my post. I was saying the SB (who pushed for $125) most likely does NOT have a straight... and therefore you're ahead.

    /g2
  • ZithalZithal
    I think the key in this hand in the SB's push. He *may* be trying to protect a made straight against a flush draw, but it looks more like he's trying to get heads up with the all-in player and doesn't want Kx, 9x hanging around for the draw. I'd put SB on a made hand, but nothing as strong as a straight.

    Since MP is all-in, all the EP raiser has to do is beat SP to make money on the hand.
  • GooseGoose
    I agree, I would take time to think about it, but I would push here as well. As said, the player "could" have say K9 here, but the push too suspect, more like a set or two pair.

    Even if he does have a made st8 here, I get my money in with the re-draw.

    Thanks for the reply's!
  • povedawgpovedawg
    That is a very tough hand 2 fold. But I would have called instantly.
  • cadillaccadillac
    BBC Z wrote: »
    No Fold with top set and the Qd.

    Edit for emphasis
  • cadillaccadillac
    beanie42 wrote: »
    I get all my chips in.


    You've got 5 outs twice (plus runners), so around 4 to 1 for the full house, and the pots offering just under 2 to 1. I don't think I could make this fold, but I don't see why it's a "really really bad one" (if it's read-based rather than just fear) since it's mathematically correct.

    We don't know if all of our outs are clean and are probably not based on the texture and the action. Since we don't know the other holdings I see 3 Jacks and 3 Tens for our tight and one Q for quads for 7 outs on the turn and if we miss we pick up another 3 outs on the river.

    Maybe I misunderstood your post.

    Or am I crazy?
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