donkey test question 2

pkrfce9pkrfce9
in Online Poker
10/20 Cash NL Hold’em. 9 Handed. $2,000 stacks. You have been at the table for a few rotations. You are weak, tight, and playing over your head. In the SB you find:

TcTs

UTG limps. Button Limps. You limp. Unknown tight aggressive player in BB (playing about 20% of his hands and raising 10%) Raises to $120. UTG calls. You call.

Flop:

QdJcTd

You check. BB bets $200. You call.

Turn:
Js

You check. BB bets $300. What should you do?

Fold
Raise
Call and check call the river
Call and check fold the river
Call and bet out on river
Call and check raise river

Comments

  • MetroMetro
    I would take a computer programming course to determine what my cards were - then either ...

    Fold
    Raise
    Call and check call the river
    Call and check fold the river
    Call and bet out on river
    Call and check raise river
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    tommy, you gots to read between the lines man. and eat meat.
  • cadillaccadillac
    TNORTH wrote: »
    I would take a computer programming course to determine what my cards were - then either ...

    Fold
    Raise
    Call and check call the river
    Call and check fold the river
    Call and bet out on river
    Call and check raise river

    ROFL

    Nice Avatar....heading out for some yardwork?
  • haddonhaddon
    I PRAY to the God's that he has AK and push my whole fucking stack.

    Then I NEVER EVER PLAY 10/20NL AGAIN IF I LOSE.




    (If he has one of the four hands that beats me I hit quads almost 2% of the time so whatever.)

    HIGH FUCKING VARIANCE 4 LIFE Y'ALL!
  • beanie42beanie42
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    Unknown tight aggressive player in BB (playing about 20% of his hands and raising 10%)
    How do you get such an accurate read on an unknown player? Anyway, the OP says you are weak tight, so obviously you fold. But I don't think that's the question. Assuming the question is "assuming you horribly misplayed this hand and have suddenly decided to try and recover, what is your best play?", then:

    Raise. I assume that I'm good here and I'll pay off the few better hands that beat me, and I don't think it's really possible to get away from this hand without some massively strong reads. However, there are some scare cards that could still come off (diamonds, re-pairing the board) which could kill action on the river, so I want to get as much money in now as possible. If I'm beat, I deserve it for my play earlier in the hand...
  • MetroMetro
    Raise -

    But he will push all-in with QJ.
  • AcidJoeAcidJoe
    Am I weak tight or have I been playing weak tight? Outside of I would have played the hand differently, like check raising the flop or possibly even re raising preflop. You have to RAISE here. Right now you should be ahead but maybe not but you HAVE to get your money in now.

    However if I'm seriously weak tight I might just check call down and see what happens...... NOT.
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    So far, all but one voter have answered "Raise." pkrfce9 , is this what you answered in the actual test? Since you and SirWatts have chosen the most "correct" answers, what were your answers to the most difficult questions?
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    i thought you'd have the math all worked out by now!

    when i first looked i instinctively said fold. but there are clues here...

    i'm going to work on the math and i will post. i said raise in the test but they don't tell you if it was right. the math will...
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    I said raise. I don't know if the you're weak tight and playing over your head is supposed to factor into this somehow, but we have a full house, and it's time to get the money in. After last night I now have 1000 hands experience at 10/20 NL so I'm pretty sure I'm an expert on the matter.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    You are weak, tight, and playing over your head.
    this is how the table sees you. in other words, you are only playing premium hands, can't let go of big pairs but can be made to fold the best hand. that is how i interpret the clue. you did not fold to the pre-flop raise. you are in the situation as described...
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    Unknown tight aggressive player in BB (playing about 20% of his hands and raising 10%) Raises to $120.
    unknown as in you don't recognize any of the players from HSP here. raising 10% of his hands is a valuable clue.

    son of a gun if 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo+,KQo doesn't work out to almost 10%. now 10% doesn't necessarily mean he'll do this in the BB when there are a few limpers in front. (in fact, a great strategy for a tight aggressive player is to put in a big raise in the BB with absolute garbage,
    once in while. )

    but for the sake of argument, let's put him on this range to make that initial raise pre-flop.

    big question: is the rest of his play consistent with this range? for sure a tight aggressive would come out betting against a weak player who has shown no strength whatsoever. and would likely follow up on the turn with another bet with any reasonable holding - top pair good kicker, trips, overpair, strong draw.

    would he give you credit for a set on the flop? not likely - might actually give you credit for AA, KK or 99 since he knows you are only playing big starters and you called a big raise. i believe the weak image precludes him giving you credit for AK here. so either he is confident he has your overpair or draw beaten or he can push you off a better hand. or he has a monster and you are too stupid to fold...

    how many hands actually beat you here? QQ, JJ, QJ, JT. these are definitely in his range of hands he'd raise with but definitely the extreme minority of his range. against these specific hands, you are dead, with 1 out (except against JJ).

    but against the 10% range noted, you are an 88% favourite. so folding is not an option. do you raise or call? in the event he is holding KK or 99 or 2 big diamonds and thinks if he hits a straight or flush he wins, i raise now since he may shut down on the river.

    i've posted this thread to get some discussion going. i'm sure some of my assumptions above are invalid. so let's talk about it based on the reads given in the question
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    for those who didn't vote raise, i'm curious to hear your reasoning so we can get a debate going and maybe i can learn something.
  • g2g2
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    for those who didn't vote raise, i'm curious to hear your reasoning so we can get a debate going and maybe i can learn something.
    I'm always a skeptic when it comes to easy answers in multiple choice and as Watts puts it:
    SirWatts wrote: »
    we have a full house, and it's time to get the money in.
    The other option I considered was call/bet out on the river.

    I asked myself the question, how can I get this guys whole stack? Raising on the turn might lose him, especially if he was just trying to push your weak-tight ass off the pot with air. Also, if you call the turn and then check the river he might check behind. So calling the turn and then betting out on the river might make him think you missed a draw and are trying to buy the pot, hoping your tight image has earned enough respect. I'm not sure that action fits with a weak-tight image though, but folding to a river raise from him sure fits.

    In the end I went with the obvious answer.

    /g2
  • ATM_GPATM_GP
    I choose the check and bet out the river...why because I'm a huge donkey and love the gambling side of things more then this fan-dangled math thing that all you folks talk about :)

    Also I'm a believe in superstition too much and every time I get my money in on the flop, and I don't have my lucky stuffy with me and my pop-tart in my left hand and my mouse acting up on my right hand then I know that the card that can kill me will come up...

    However if I do have my stuffy, and my pop-tart, and my mouse isn't actiung up..and I wait until the River, then I know my 1 outter will come and I will get everyone elses money when my quads come...but it HAS to be a tuesday otherwise it won't work...

    ATM_GP
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    fwiw someone on 2+2 went through and found all the "right" answers. Raise is correct here. I can post the link if people want, or not so that people here can debate on their own.
  • hollywoods17hollywoods17
    depends what the river is if u heat your quadzilla check raise
  • hollywoods17hollywoods17
    i raise the turn and check raise the river
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    SirWatts wrote: »
    fwiw someone on 2+2 went through and found all the "right" answers. Raise is correct here. I can post the link if people want, or not so that people here can debate on their own.
    for myself, i'd say 'no'. the real value in this exercise is the debate. not 'knowing' the right answer. but i'm messed up and value crap like 'knowledge'
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    g2 wrote: »
    I asked myself the question, how can I get this guys whole stack? Raising on the turn might lose him, especially if he was just trying to push your weak-tight ass off the pot with air. Also, if you call the turn and then check the river he might check behind. So calling the turn and then betting out on the river might make him think you missed a draw and are trying to buy the pot, hoping your tight image has earned enough respect.
    this is an interesting point and i thought about that option. if he can't beat AA, given your image i doubt he'll put more in the pot on the river. however, if he has some kind of draw he thinks may beat AA then you may get some extra chips in now. also, say he has AJ and a 9 comes on the river, he may fear you have KK and shut down.

    i'm just not sure my line of thought makes sense on this. discussion?
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