Interesting poker odds
Actually, it's pretty basic poker odds, but it's a funny story... with a lesson!
I was sitting at a micro-limit table, and a few hands in a player raises, a short-stack pushes all-in, the OR calls and flips over AQ, while the short-stack flips up QT.
Obviously, a ten flops, and the original raiser gets a little upset.
OR: Oh my ****ing god. I can't believe you hit your T. Un****ing believable.
So... then I chimed in..
Zithal: Oh my ****ing god. I just rolled a 4-sided die and got a 1!! Un****ing believeable.
His response?
OR: Nice try, Zithal. He only had a 10% chance to win.
Why argue with the player in the know? So, I sat quietly, got berated for being a DnD geek, (my response: which form of poker is that?), and took some of Mr. Tilty's money before he left.
After the episode, I then really made the connection between a dominated match-up and rolling a 1 on a 4-sided die. I'm not sure why, but that connection makes it seem a little less annoying when the dominated player hits.
I was sitting at a micro-limit table, and a few hands in a player raises, a short-stack pushes all-in, the OR calls and flips over AQ, while the short-stack flips up QT.
Obviously, a ten flops, and the original raiser gets a little upset.
OR: Oh my ****ing god. I can't believe you hit your T. Un****ing believable.
So... then I chimed in..
Zithal: Oh my ****ing god. I just rolled a 4-sided die and got a 1!! Un****ing believeable.
His response?
OR: Nice try, Zithal. He only had a 10% chance to win.
Why argue with the player in the know? So, I sat quietly, got berated for being a DnD geek, (my response: which form of poker is that?), and took some of Mr. Tilty's money before he left.
After the episode, I then really made the connection between a dominated match-up and rolling a 1 on a 4-sided die. I'm not sure why, but that connection makes it seem a little less annoying when the dominated player hits.
Comments
whats DnD?
You are abs. correct. Why get into it with this guy? Let him be right...let him tilt...let him give you his lunch money...let him freak out when you hit your combo draw to stack his TPTK and then say, "Oh man, I am soooooo lucky!"
/g2
Mark
Quite right Mark.
I think he's < a 3:1 dog here.
2:1 dog = 33% change of winning = rolling 3,6,9 on a 9-sided die
so TECHNICALLY if you had a 10-sided dice, the chances of rolling a multiple of 3.... but I figured the 9 sided was close enough
Mark
/g2
It depends on the match up.
QT wins only 25.48% of the time, if the AQ is suited and the suits of QT don't match the AQ. (ie. AQs v. QdTc)
If the QT is suited, and the AQ has none of that suit, QT it's 31.26% (ie. AsQc v. QTd)
Depending on how the suits are arranged, the match up is between these values, but most permutations are closer to the 25-27% range.
The connectedness and suit strength of the dominated hand adds a surprising amount of varience in this calculation.
For example, if the match up is Ks7d v. 7s2d, the 72o is only about 20% (4:1 dog) to win
Go to any hobby / craft store... you can get almost any sided dice you'd like.
Mark