High Stakes Poker Season 3
To all of those who saw the first episode. Just wondering what others thought about it...I thought it was a pretty good first episode, many of the regulars with a few new people. Jamie Gold, although he did win a couple of pots, he was definitely playing scared poker. I don't think he's ever ever played against that high calibre of a table, but who knows maybe he'll relax later on and play better. Matusow was playing very well, and I thought it was funny how he was sitting next to Gold. At first he seemed to be ragging on Gold a lot, but near the end he seemed to be becoming friends with him and giving him tips on how the players at the table react. He pulled off an amazing bluff with his A-K to David Alalei's (I think that's how you spell it) pocket eights, when the board was 2-5-7. He also pulled off a nice bluff with A-Q. I'm sure Matusow and Sheiky will get into it pretty good, as they preluded to at the end of the episode, but will Matusow be able to keep up the level of play with the distraction? Who knows. Negreanu was fairly quiet this time. One thing I didn't like was that they didn't tell you how much they buy-in for at the beginning. Who will be the big winner this year? Ivey? Matusow? Doyle? Negreanu?
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Anyways, for those who haven't seen all the first 2 seasons. Here's links to every episode. Also, if you go to the home site of this link, there's every poker video and clip you could ever want, WSOP, WPT, HSP, etc...old and new.
Here's the links
HSP S1 E 1-8:
http://hspoker.blogspot.com/
HSP S1 E 9-13:
http://hspseasononeb.blogspot.com/
HSP S2E 1-10:
http://hsptwo.blogspot.com/
HSP S2E 11-16:
http://hsptwob.blogspot.com/
I didn't hyper link them so just copy and paste into your browser.
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HSP Season 3 EP 01
http://hspseason3.blogspot.com/
home page
http://youtubepoker.blogspot.com/
Enjoy.
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Was hoping for more pots between Matusow and Sheiky.
I would have liked to have seen the fireworks had Negreanu stayed in that hand where he would have flopped a straight, and Mike pushed on the flop with AK.
Can't wait to see Ivey play.
i didn't think gold played terribly. i'll have to watch again to be certain but it seemed whenever he hit a big hand, no one else had anything. he was limping and calling rather than raising but given the competition, i can't fault his early play
You guys think he looked like a donk or was well aware of his table image and took full advantage of it?
He showed hardly any aggression at all. Check, call, check, call.
Calling station = dead money in that game.
Oh w8, he ponied up and bet the pot when he had AA. I correct myself, he is a solid player!
Gabe Kaplin is a good player. He played the Yokel role very well and talked the "Mouth" into folding top pair into a 1/3 pot river bet. He would probably get destroyed in this game over the long haul but he is nobody's "donk."
Caddy
PS - I love this show!
LOL...No, It's the OTHER Gabe Kaplan
Rigged obv.
The link I posted earlier in this thread has season 3 on it also. On the right side, scroll down the menu's till you see HSP. There's season 1, 2 and what's been aired of 3. But it's all from youtube, not a .WMV or anything.
Here it is again http://youtubepoker.blogspot.com/
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Cheers.
Running it twice means the splitting the pot into two pots and run the remaining board for one pot, and then a second board (e.g., river) for the other pot. The purpose is to reduce variance or risk, especially if the pot is big enough that losing it would be too painful. For example, instead of Farha losing a $200K pot because of Matusow getting the 20% chance of sucking out, he still has a great chance of splitting the pot by having another board. The expected value remains the same.
When Negreanu flopped the second nuts, he declined Farha's offer of running it twice, who had a flush draw. Unfortunately for Negreanu, his horrible luck continued on HSP and doubled up Farha.
It's scary to see how variance can be so cruel to a great player like Negreanu who seems to have lost a big chunk of his bankroll on HSP. Almost any other player would have gone broke by now.
1) 64% chance that you will win the board twice and win the $1 million.
2) only 4% chance that you will lose twice, and lose $1 million.
3) 32% chance that the two players will each win once, and the pot will be split.
While the EV remains the same, your risk of ruin is five times less likely by running it twice. For big gamblers like Farha and Matusow, bankruptcy may not be at stake but running it twice is just another fun bet. Gambling addicts love any kind of proposition bets, straddling (even though it's -EV), and "stacking off" in which they agree to put their whole stack in BLIND while the other players pre-agree to fold.
Next time I am in a big all-in pot at a cash game, I will propose running it twice - just to confuse everybody at the table! >:D
How much more does the "risk of ruin" diminish when running it three times (which I've seen many times on LA Poker Scene).
- There would be a 51.2% chance that I would win all three runs and win the whole $300,000 pot.
- There would be a 0.8% chance that I would lose all three runs and ElElliott would win the whole $300,000 pot.
- For 3 of the 8 outcomes, I would win two of the $100,000 pots and lose one $100,000 pot. My EV = (80% * 80% * 20%) * 3 * +$100K = +$38,400.
- For the remaining 3 outcomes, I would lose two of the $100,000 pots and win one $100,000 pot. My EV = (20% * 20% * 80%) * 3 * -$100K = -$9,600.
While the EV remains the same ($300K * 60% = $180K), I have greatly reduced my risk of ruin from 20% to 0.8% by running it three times. Monday night's High Stakes Poker was the first time I have ever seen "running it twice," but now that I have figured it out, I can't wait to incorporate it into my cash game strategies tomorrow!
Before you go adding it to your cash game strategies, I know of no regular casino poker room that allows it..... I know it has come up at the tables before at both Seneca and Niagara, both rooms say no to it... Not sure about the Vegas scene. I would guess it would only be allowed in the private high stakes games.. However your mileage may vary.. Ask first..