Flopped Open Ended Straight Flush Draw - early in an MTT.
Okay...
I have been going through some of my records from the past 6 months in MTT's. Most are the Sahara in Vegas's $42+$20 200+ person ones.
Twice in my records it shows that I went out within 2 orbits of the tourny start, both by flopping an open ended straight flush with an overpair to the board; and ended up all in on the flop.
The outs I calculate are:
9 suited outs.
8 (6) open ended draw. Minus the 2 selected suit from above for 6.
2 outs on my over pair.
Total: 17 outs, roughly 67% to win?
Anyway, I know all this. However, what I wanted to know is this;
Although I am statistically ahead if all the money goes in on the flop and I am up against a pair or two pair even, is there a reason to fold because, 'you have to hit to win'? I have heard the expression used many a time, I was ahead but 'had to hit to win'. I often wonder if that makes sense in ANY WAY AT ALL.
I know I never post this kind of stuff, but I wanted to hear some thoughts on the matter. Am I the only one who hears people say that? Should you be happy with that percentage even though you have nothing/could easliy be beat if you miss?
If you think I am an idiot for investigating this seemingly silly statement further, feel free to let me know that as well.
I have been going through some of my records from the past 6 months in MTT's. Most are the Sahara in Vegas's $42+$20 200+ person ones.
Twice in my records it shows that I went out within 2 orbits of the tourny start, both by flopping an open ended straight flush with an overpair to the board; and ended up all in on the flop.
The outs I calculate are:
9 suited outs.
8 (6) open ended draw. Minus the 2 selected suit from above for 6.
2 outs on my over pair.
Total: 17 outs, roughly 67% to win?
Anyway, I know all this. However, what I wanted to know is this;
Although I am statistically ahead if all the money goes in on the flop and I am up against a pair or two pair even, is there a reason to fold because, 'you have to hit to win'? I have heard the expression used many a time, I was ahead but 'had to hit to win'. I often wonder if that makes sense in ANY WAY AT ALL.
I know I never post this kind of stuff, but I wanted to hear some thoughts on the matter. Am I the only one who hears people say that? Should you be happy with that percentage even though you have nothing/could easliy be beat if you miss?
If you think I am an idiot for investigating this seemingly silly statement further, feel free to let me know that as well.
Comments
Yes.
It sounds strange, but when all the chips go in, the cards don't matter anymore. All that matters is the % - how often will I win this hand. Whether you need to hit or not is irrelevant, except for how it may make your opponents perceive you - players who don't understand the math may now consider you a maniac. These are the same players who believe a deck wash will change their "luck".
I'll see you tonight - we can chat then
If you get called, you have to take into consideration chopping / dominated outs. If you have 88 on a 567 board, what if dude has A8? There goes six outs...
You have 78d and the board is 5d6d2c you have lost a lot of outs if dude has A-4d..
Did you account for this at any time?
Mark
what you said was
If you have Kc Kd with a flop of Qc Jc 10c you should be a large favourite. you have an open ended straight flush with an over pair to the board. Or am I misunderstanding you? If you get in with that flop against Ac Qs for example you are still a 60% favourite according to pokerstove. So yes get your money in and pray. Now if you have OVERCARDS and not an OVERPAIR that's different.
Both times my records show an OVERPAIR. One was JJ and the other was the KK situation.
I look forward to chatting tonight Trevor.
Thanks again for the input. I never really do hands on here, but that phrase 'you have to hit' was bothering me.
Think about it like this:
You're getting in with the best hand, against say a flush draw. The equivalent line would be "you have to have them NOT hit".
Since you're getting in with the best hand the percentage chance of "you hitting" and "them NOT hitting" is about the same (both >50%).
Umm... yeah, that made sense in my head. Does that help at all?
/g2
It put it into perspective well.
/g2
I'll let you decide. I have to be mysterious right?
How do you know specifically that you're up against 1 or 2 pair and not a set, flopped straight, or flush? You can't just go and count your outs in an absolute sense (unless you've seen the guy's hand).
Eg. JcJd on a Tc9c8c flop. Both your flush and OESD outs are tainted (you may be up against a made straight like QJ (9 flush outs + 1.5 str outs (3 queens to chop)). You could be up against a made flush (5c4c where you would have 7 outs, or even worse a higher flush where you only have 2 outs). A flopped set has redraws against both your flush and OESD.
The outs you list are your BEST case scenario when behind. (although you actually do have extra 2 pair outs vs. a lower 2 pair as well). They should be adjusted accordingly...
Pinch your self, fall out of bed, the dream is over and admit you never were in vegas. See you priest, say 50 hail mary's and do 20 push ups without having a heart attack and tell us what you prision ID number was and what guards you want to do some air raiding for this spring. We need to pay the winner from the pool. And I guess a new what could start soon.
Prophet 22
I shit in your house the other day in a place not welcoming of shit.
Hope you find it before the smell becomes unbearable.
josh, is that why my hat smells?
btw, with a hand that strong early in a tourney i have no issue getting all my chips in
For example, If I have 66 on a 789 board, I'll count any 5 as a full out, but the T will make anyone with a J a better straight.
In fact, I be tempted to count the T's as only 1 or 2 outs due to the fact that this may be a false out.
Does anyone recall which book this was in? I'm thinking it was a Slansky book.
Anyway, if I start accounting for false outs, it gives me a little more information on helping me play the hand.
For the OP, definately agree with the others. Once the money goes in, the only thing that matters is the %.