A set versus a flush
I was playing last week in a very loose tournament style game. I had pocket jacks and there was a raise that I, and one other person called preflop; I was in position. The flop came A-J-x all diamonds. This is exactly the kind of flop I am hoping for with a raise preflop, except for the flush possibility. The other caller led out with a small bet, and the original raiser, raised the flop. I reraised, and the first player folded immediately. The second player thought for a bit and folded his hand.
Although I wasn't really afraid of the flush on the flop, I was more worried about a four card flush on the turn or river. Any thoughts?
P.S. After reading through one of the previous threads, I should mention up front that I have not read any poker books yet.
Although I wasn't really afraid of the flush on the flop, I was more worried about a four card flush on the turn or river. Any thoughts?
P.S. After reading through one of the previous threads, I should mention up front that I have not read any poker books yet.
Comments
Mark
You did just that and took down the pot. Nice hand Sir!
That flop probably cost you a nice chunk of money. A rainbow flop of A-J-x would have given you a nice payday if someone held an A.
You should post stack and bet sizes as a rule when posting hands. This information factors HUGE in your decision making.
Cheers
Caddy
I agree that you aren't really worried about the flopped flush, and you did the right thing to find out where you're at. On a draw heavy board taking down the pot is never bad. If Ax Xh sees the turn and makes even a weak flush they probably aren't dumping the hand (and at that point you might not have enough ammo left to get them off it).
/g2
Thanks, I will remember that next time. I am relatively new to the forum. I actually can't remember the exact size of bets in this case, and it was early in the blinds, so the stack sizes were relatively large. However with this particular game, bet sizes are not necessarily helpful. The blinds start at 5 and 10 and you routinely see someone make an initial raise of 300. I think the first raise was less than the pot size and I reraised about the pot size after the flop but before the betting.
Judging by your description of this particular hand you probably were offering correct odds to anyone with a Big heart in his hand to draw to the flush.
Caddy
I agree that I may have been offering up the correct odds, but I doubted the ability of my competition to recognize that. The absolute bet amount would have been a deterrent to them and less risk to me, and if they had a heart, I doubt bad pot odds would stopped them from calling. However, in other circumstances I would push more.
If your opponent is clueless, this is all the more of a reason to offer him a price to draw that isn't profitable. When you offer him the correct odds (or close to it) he's making money by calling you (or making a very small mistake if he doesn't quite have the odds). When he's calling big bets without the proper odds, you're making money. This is good poker at it's most basic sense.
Raise, Re-Raise, Re-raise preflop from you would be something I would have done.
However, the way it stands:
I play a high variance game, so take this into account when reading.
The odds of a 4th flush card coming is generally around 25% or less. I can't remember exactly but I believe it is around there, someone help me out if I'm wrong.
The odds of your flopped set turning into a boat or quads on the turn or river is 1-2.7 times roughly or 37 percent.
I don't mind seeing the turn with the flop re-raiser or both of them so I flat call. If the flop re-raiser has a flush draw he is likely flat call the original raise. Again, I am a high variance player, but I think I will get more value on the missed turn in the long run with one of them leading out/continuation betting and you taking it down with a re-raise on the turn. Just my two cents.
(As everyone said, as long as their odds are incorrect to draw.)
Raise preflop.
In this instance though, what if the raise was $60 more PF and u reraised $300 and both players smooth called? (cuz u said the tournament was loose) Let's say that the board comes K,A,4 rainbow. Technically, you'd have 15-25% of ur stack committed in the pot, which would shorten your stack heavily and put u at a weaker position in later hands. (pending u had $1500-$2500 initially in front of you.) Knowing the initial raiser was ahead of u if he fires out a bet chances are either a)s/he has it and just wants the pot (it would be $1080 at that point) or b) a really bad time to bluff. why? becuz the other limper still has an option and you already checked, so from that player's point, a checkraise could occur by you OR the next player could've hit the flop , and it is a substantial pot, so they'd probably sink w/the ship to take the pot since the pot is juicy.
Limping on a raise can be a decent play for the sake of survival, or craftiness, but limping with no raise prflop at all is a terrible idea, I'm certainly NOT promoting that, itz basically playing Russian Roulette against ANY Q,K,A, connector or low PP. let's see... 5 bullets loaded into a 6 shooter, NO THANX!