Hand analysis

ScoobyD

OK, villian is a TAG 14/8/3.00 over 30-40 hands. I guess that's probably enough given the board, but I haven't done anything terribly out of line. What range of hands can villian have on the turn? What is his most likely holding given the action?

PokerStars Game #7783572633: Hold'em Limit ($5/$10) - 2007/01/05 - 19:27:47 (ET)
Table 'Paulina V' 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Italia2 ($197 in chips)
Seat 2: kidreynolds ($171 in chips)
Seat 3: hennysbaby ($128 in chips)
Seat 4: ZeemJr ($183 in chips)
Seat 5: Mrbaaadbeat ($178 in chips)
Seat 6: phonias209 ($186 in chips)
Seat 7: EDGE_FINDER ($278 in chips)
Seat 8: ScoobyD ($479 in chips)
Seat 9: PAUCHA ($315 in chips)
ScoobyD: posts small blind $2
PAUCHA: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScoobyD [Kc Ks]
Italia2: folds
Italia2 leaves the table
kidreynolds: folds
hennysbaby: folds
ZeemJr: folds
Mrbaaadbeat: folds
phonias209: raises $5 to $10
jay charles joins the table at seat #1
EDGE_FINDER: raises $5 to $15
ScoobyD: raises $5 to $20
Betting is capped
PAUCHA: folds
phonias209: calls $10
EDGE_FINDER: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [Qs 8c 3d]
ScoobyD: bets $5
phonias209: folds
EDGE_FINDER: raises $5 to $10
ScoobyD: raises $5 to $15
EDGE_FINDER: raises $5 to $20
Betting is capped
ScoobyD: calls $5
*** TURN *** [Qs 8c 3d] [Kd]
ScoobyD: bets $10
EDGE_FINDER: raises $10 to $20
ScoobyD: raises $10 to $30
EDGE_FINDER: raises $10 to $40
Betting is capped
ScoobyD: calls $10

JohnnieH

Ace Queen of Diamonds?

Hobbes

AK or QQ.

I'd lean towards QQ though.

Whitehorse

Reasonbly if he's TAG and reading you as such, Only AA and QQ make sense here. I think it's a bit of a sretch to cap that flop with AQ as he has to sense a lot of strength from you and should just call the 3 bet. but maybe he's decided you're pushing AK.

So with the K on the turn that's got to slow down a TAG with AQ. We have to be thinking we're up against AA or QQ here, with the outside chance of AQ or 88, I can't see AK here unless he's suddenly changed his style of play.

Whitehorse

Whitehorse wrote: »

Reasonbly if he's TAG and reading you as such, Only AA and QQ make sense here. I think it's a bit of a sretch to cap that flop with AQ as he has to sense a lot of strength from you and should just call the 3 bet. but maybe he's decided you're pushing AK.

So with the K on the turn that's got to slow down a TAG with AQ. We have to be thinking we're up against AA or QQ here, with the outside chance of AQ or 88, I can't see AK here unless he's suddenly changed his style of play.

or what Johnnie said.

ScoobyD

Reasonbly if he's TAG and reading you as such, Only AA and QQ make sense here.

2 of the hands I considered, although I think QQ is much more likely (most people will worry about sets like KK or QQ if they have AA and get 3 bet on the turn from another tight player that capped preflop and flop).

I also think 88 is a distinct possibility (the open raise is from a loose player in the CO and a TAG is likely to try to isolate him with 88 there). To a lesser extent KQ is also possible, although from my experience you are less often going to see an iso raise with that hand unless either the CO has shown to be a maniac, or the TAG is particularly aggressive.

So, given that we think QQ is most likely with 88 another distinct possibility, with KQ, AA and AQd being possible but much less likely (IMO):

River card is Q.

Hero bets, villian raises. Is this still a trivially easy 3 bet (based on the specific read). Against an unknown, a loose player, a super aggressive opponent or someone apt to be on tilt, I agree this is a no-brainer...

actyper

I think a TAG player would just call your flop bet and raise on the turn after flopping a set. AA would be my guess.

DrTyore

Personally I put him on AA...

I think you got lucky on the turn, and would gladly ram-jam the hell outta that on the river... if he has QQ... so be it.. I have the nut full house, I'm willing to cap this. If it's unlimited re-raising heads up, I may consider slowing down after about the 5th or 6th bet...


Mark

moose

Preflop 88 and QQ are equally likely to be in his hand (from this I mean the chances of being dealt any PP is the same). When the Q hits I discount quads and go with 88 with a small chance of KQ added in (basically the KQ has same chance of all Ks in play as all Qs in play). 30-40 hands is still hard to know if he is extremely good or just overaggressive. He is obviously not giving you credit for KK anyways from the turn betting (especially so if he has KQ).

I score it this way:
5% all other hands like AK and AA that just call your 3 bet (you make $10)
3% KQ capped (you make $20)
0% losing $10 because no hand that beats you just calls the 3 bet
49% 88 - 50% of the time you make $10 and 50% you make $20 when he caps
43% QQ - 100% of the time you lose $20 because you aren't folding his cap
(I took the 92% left, divided by 2 and subtracted 3% from QQ and gave it to 88, since all Ks in play has same chance as all Qs in play)

I don't think you can tilt it anymore towards 88 than that.

Anyways
Win $10 x (5% + 49%/2) = $2.45 ev
Win $20 x (49%/2 + 3%) = $5.50 ev
Lose $10 = $0
Lose $20 x (43%) = -$8.60 ev

Total -$0.65 ev

I was surprised. I would've 3 bet. This says call.

moose

DrTyore wrote: »

Personally I put him on AA...

I think you got lucky on the turn, and would gladly ram-jam the hell outta that on the river... if he has QQ... so be it.. I have the nut full house, I'm willing to cap this. If it's unlimited re-raising heads up, I may consider slowing down after about the 5th or 6th bet...


Mark

If the stats give him credit for being a good player I don't see the cap on the turn and/or the river raise with AA.

BBC Z

Guys c'mon it's obvious.

Villian holds KK. They play with 53 cards on pokerstars.

EDIT: It looks to me like Villian has AA but I guess I'm not sure what the question is? How to tell when yer beat with the overpair on the flop? How to tell yer beat with the raises preflop?

If he's a TAG, he's gonna cap AQs, 99+ preflop. So your KK is way ahead of his range. AA is the only concern. When he keeps wanting to put in bets on every street it makes it more likely. So.. Preflop, I cap. When the flop is Q high, I cap. When the turn hits and he bets again I call down.

moose

BBC Z wrote: »

Guys c'mon it's obvious.

Villian holds KK. They play with 53 cards on pokerstars.

I expected this to be AcidJoe's read on the play.

ScoobyD

I score it this way:
5% all other hands like AK and AA that just call your 3 bet (you make $10)
3% KQ capped (you make $20)
0% losing $10 because no hand that beats you just calls the 3 bet
49% 88 - 50% of the time you make $10 and 50% you make $20 when he caps
43% QQ - 100% of the time you lose $20 because you aren't folding his cap
(I took the 92% left, divided by 2 and subtracted 3% from QQ and gave it to 88, since all Ks in play has same chance as all Qs in play)

I don't think you can tilt it anymore towards 88 than that.

Anyways
Win $10 x (5% + 49%/2) = $2.45 ev
Win $20 x (49%/2 + 3%) = $5.50 ev
Lose $10 = $0
Lose $20 x (43%) = -$8.60 ev

Wow, thanks for doing the numbers moose (I felt lazy and didn't know where to begin). I'm just curious where you came up with the percentages. Strictly from a hand distribution standpoint there's 3 combinations of 88 that are possible and only 1 of QQ, so this seems to make 88 more likely from a strict combination standpoint (ignoring the way the hand has played out). I'd probably agree with your 50% cap, 50% call the 3 bet there. (to me it seems suspicious as well that 88 is raising the river given the crazy action thus far, as he has to consider the fact that KQ, QQ, KK all have him beat).

I don't think AA, AK are raising that river ever, unless the person is tilting badly (which I didn't have any indication of).

So... let's say I tweak your numbers around:

Assuming that he is 3 times more likely (from a hand combination standpoint) to hold 88 than QQ, but given that the way the hand has played out, I'd tend to weigh the likelihood of QQ a little more. Let's say 88 is twice as likely as QQ.

Of the 92% chance then:

88 (0.92 * 2/3) = 61.3%
QQ (0.92 * 1/3) = 30.7%

So the EV of raising is (based on assumption of 88 twice as likely as QQ):

Win $20 x (5% + 61.3%/2) = $7.13 ev
Win $30 x (61.3%/2 + 3%) = $10.10 ev
Lose $20 = $0
Lose $30 x (30.7%) = -$9.21ev
=+$8.02
So, ya I guess it comes down to how certain we are of QQ.

EV of calling:

Win $10 x (5% + 61.3% + 3%) = $6.93 ev
Lose $10 x (30.7%) = -$-3.07 ev

=+$3.86

Based on 88 and QQ roughly equally likely (Moose's #'s):

EV raising:

Win $20 x (5% + 49%/2) = $5.90 ev
Win $30 x (49%/2 + 3%) = $8.25 ev
Lose $20 = $0
Lose $30 x (43%) = -$-12.90 ev
=+$1.25

EV calling:
Win $10 x (5% + 49% + 3%) = $5.70 ev
Lose $10 x (43%) = -$4.30 ev
=+$1.40

Note: I'm not 100% sure I calculated the EV correctly. I'm pretty sure I understand that Moose is basing it on at least calling, but to calculate the differences between raising and calling I think you have to factor in the raising open up the reraise (ie. calling you're in for 1 bet when behind, but raising you're in for 3 when beat).

So "roughly" you need to be 50% sure he has QQ here to consider calling I think...and even then, it's pretty close... So ya, 3 bet away...

ScoobyD

EDIT: It looks to me like Villian has AA but I guess I'm not sure what the question is?

Ya, my question was somewhat muddled. I posted the action up till the turn since it looks like (IMO) villian is most likely on QQ or 88. Then when the case Q falls on the river, do we go ahead and 3 bet, even though we think this is his most likely holding. And the answer I think is unequivicably "yes" barring a phenomenal read (which I don't think I had enough info to make).

When the turn hits and he bets again I call down.

With top set?!? Do you even read the posts anymore? And yes, I'm aware that this is a bad beat, but I actually thought it was moderately worthwhile since I think you can narrow a TAG's range on each street to a very, very small subset of hands.

moose

Who does this analysis? Sklansky I think. I don't have my poker books at work. Anyways I just pulled the #'s out of my ass so they are open for debate. I just gave all the other random hands a 5% chance of being held by the villian because it does seem to be a narrow range that he may have but I think you can't give them zero. He might even have 33. But I did say that I am assuming that the random hands just call the raise. I don't think he folds here either so that was assumed 0% chance.

I based everything off of calling is assumed but perhaps you have to include the EV of just calling as well. So my make $10, make $20 etc is based only on the EV of raising.

I don't think you can give it a 2/3 1/3 split here, basing it on how the cards have fallen. I think you have to start with being dealt any PP as an equal chance. However I did discount QQ by the 3% stated so the 49/43 split seems reasonable. Opinion?


Based on 88 and QQ roughly equally likely (Moose's #'s):

EV raising:

Win $20 x (5% + 49%/2) = $5.90 ev
Win $30 x (49%/2 + 3%) = $8.25 ev
Lose $20 = $0
Lose $30 x (43%) = -$-12.90 ev
=+$1.25

EV calling:
Win $10 x (5% + 49% + 3%) = $5.70 ev
Lose $10 x (43%) = -$4.30 ev
=+$1.40


For sure these splits aren't right because they have to total 100% and they don't.

BBC Z

I'll put three bets into the river if the queen falls.

Irish31

Why is he not re-raising pre flop with AA? It's not like he will push anyone out with the capped betting.


Forget AA, he has AQ or QQ. He has no problem capping on the board, I don't see him just calling with AA preflop, not in a pl game.


If we only knew... if we only knew..

Irish31

My bad, looks like the betting was capped when our boy raised. In that case, I think AA is alot more likely then.

One would think AQ just calls the turn with the over, so QQ or AA, i'll be spicy and agree on AA.

AcidJoe

Hobbes wrote: »

I'd lean towards QQ though.

I second that vote. That was my feeling after reading it. He could also have AA, but I highly doubt it moose that he would have KK unless one of them was in his pocket.

moose

AcidJoe wrote: »

I second that vote. That was my feeling after reading it. He could also have AA, but I highly doubt it moose that he would have KK unless one of them was in his pocket.

But this is on Stars, Joe.

moose

So are we going to get a final result? I think you hinted earlier that he did indeed have QQ.

ScoobyD

So are we going to get a final result? I think you hinted earlier that he did indeed have QQ.

As requested:

*** RIVER *** [Qs 8c 3d Kd] [Qc]
ScoobyD: bets $10
EDGE_FINDER: raises $10 to $20
ScoobyD: raises $10 to $30
EDGE_FINDER: raises $10 to $40
Betting is capped
ScoobyD said, "no QQ pls"
ScoobyD: calls $10
*** SHOW DOWN ***
EDGE_FINDER: shows [Qh Qd] (four of a kind, Queens)
ScoobyD: shows [Kc Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Queens)
EDGE_FINDER collected $262 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $265 | Rake $3
Board [Qs 8c 3d Kd Qc]
Seat 1: Italia2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: kidreynolds folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: hennysbaby folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ZeemJr folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Mrbaaadbeat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: phonias209 folded on the Flop
Seat 7: EDGE_FINDER (button) showed [Qh Qd] and won ($262) with four of a kind, Queens
Seat 8: ScoobyD (small blind) showed [Kc Ks] and lost with a full house, Kings full of Queens
Seat 9: PAUCHA (big blind) folded before Flop

g2

Thatsalotta sucking and resucking AND RE-RESUCKING!

/g2

moose

Sick

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