Bad Beats Indicate ... What?
I won't bore anyone with the bad beats I've suffered tonight - I know how much we all love hearing them 
. However, as has been previously mentioned, bad beats usually mean you are getting the money in with a significant edge, therefore more bad beats indicate that you are outplaying the table. If this is true, I'm wondering what this edge indicates?
Strange topic, but thinking about this kept me from tilting tonight. Still don't have a good answer though...
. However, as has been previously mentioned, bad beats usually mean you are getting the money in with a significant edge, therefore more bad beats indicate that you are outplaying the table. If this is true, I'm wondering what this edge indicates?
- You are far more skilled than the majority of your opponents (at least at a specific game/limit).
- Your table selection is above average (since you are finding the bad tables).
- Most players are simply ridiculously bad, so skill and table selection don't really matter. Barely above average is a big edge.
- Something else I'm missing?
Strange topic, but thinking about this kept me from tilting tonight. Still don't have a good answer though...
Comments
Damn right it does. The more donks that want to call me down to the river with A high the better - gives them less outs. lol
2 cases in point:
1st table, low donk factor, this guy had 3 outs to hit and he did. He got a special note.
Texas Hold'em $1-$2 (real money), hand #1,450,515,059
Table Raleigh, 4 Jan 2007 4:20 AM ET
Seat 1: golden66 ($29.90 in chips)
Seat 2: arob24 ($138.45 in chips)
Seat 3: Keats xxx ($36.50 in chips)
Seat 4: cdnmoose06 [ KC,10C ] ($90.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Strooya ($52.50 in chips)
Seat 6: FabianTo ($66.85 in chips)
Seat 8: daniel neg.. ($73.00 in chips)
Seat 9: rivr_hater ($47.70 in chips)
Seat 10: Mr Risto ($42.70 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
golden66 posts blind ($0.50), arob24 posts blind ($1).
PRE-FLOP
Keats xxx folds, cdnmoose06 calls $1, Strooya folds, FabianTo folds, daniel neg.. calls $1, rivr_hater folds, Mr Risto calls $1, golden66 calls $0.50, arob24 checks.
FLOP [board cards 7C,KH,8S ]
golden66 checks, arob24 checks, cdnmoose06 bets $1, daniel neg.. folds, Mr Risto calls $1, golden66 folds, arob24 folds.
TURN [board cards 7C,KH,8S,JD ]
cdnmoose06 bets $2, Mr Risto calls $2.
RIVER [board cards 7C,KH,8S,JD,AH ]
cdnmoose06 bets $2, Mr Risto bets $4, cdnmoose06 calls $2.
SHOWDOWN
Mr Risto shows [ 6C,AC ]
cdnmoose06 mucks cards [ KC,10C ]
2nd table, high donk factor, what they were calling me with I will never know:
Texas Hold'em $1-$2 (real money), hand #1,450,513,540
Table Mailand, 4 Jan 2007 4:20 AM ET
Seat 1: VIPER174 ($38.20 in chips)
Seat 2: Dudley003 ($116.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Sanzarc ($73.70 in chips)
Seat 4: Fishie7 ($21.15 in chips)
Seat 5: golden66 ($31.00 in chips)
Seat 6: rivr_hater ($53.60 in chips)
Seat 7: Snica1 ($151.45 in chips)
Seat 8: cdnmoose06 [ AH,QD ] ($103.00 in chips)
Seat 9: nomad2006 ($96.10 in chips)
Seat 10: PlayBoy104 ($14.70 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
nomad2006 posts blind ($0.50), PlayBoy104 posts blind ($1).
PRE-FLOP
VIPER174 folds, Dudley003 calls $1, Sanzarc folds, Fishie7 calls $1, golden66 calls $1, rivr_hater folds, Snica1 folds, cdnmoose06 bets $2, nomad2006 folds, PlayBoy104 calls $1, Dudley003 calls $1, Fishie7 calls $1, golden66 calls $1.
FLOP [board cards QS,AC,QH ]
PlayBoy104 checks, Dudley003 checks, Fishie7 checks, golden66 checks, cdnmoose06 bets $1, PlayBoy104 calls $1, Dudley003 calls $1, Fishie7 calls $1, golden66 calls $1.
TURN [board cards QS,AC,QH,JS ]
PlayBoy104 checks, Dudley003 checks, Fishie7 checks, golden66 checks, cdnmoose06 bets $2, PlayBoy104 folds, Dudley003 folds, Fishie7 calls $2, golden66 folds.
RIVER [board cards QS,AC,QH,JS,6S ]
Fishie7 checks, cdnmoose06 bets $2, Fishie7 folds.
SHOWDOWN
cdnmoose06 wins $20.50.
Pretty much sums it up. I wouldn't say barely above average is a huge edge, but its a big enough edge that can be exploited by better players.
I'm there with you Trev.
I agree with Moose here but I also believe it's a combination of the above two statements. Sure there are a lot more donks at the low levels but I still find table selection important even at the $0.50/1.00 limits. I believe I have an edge as I believe I'm a better player then the majority of my opposition at this level but I also believe I can increase my chances of success by choosing the right table....I'd much rather sit down at a table with a higher percentage of donks!!!
I had, what I think, was an interesting session last night. I was at a table where one player raised every hand, yes he played 100% of the hands and raised 100% of the hands and if re-raised he capped 100% of the hands pre-flop. He would lead out or raise post flop and if he was re-raised he would re-raise if he had a piece of something and check with nothing. He had about $30 in front of him. Myself and perhaps 3 other players adjusted their play accordingly, I came out up $20 after about 15 minutes, one player was unlucky when the donk actually made a hand but for the most part 3 of us took him apart. Then when he left the table after busting out (.50/1.00 limit and he busted out in about a half hour!!!) a few players made comments like 'thank god that idiot is gone', 2 of them said 'I want him back' and I said 'he's been added to my buddy list!'. I quickly made note to avoid the 2-3 players that noticed this guy and adjusted their play accordingly...not to say they are any beter then me but they at least have some skills and I added everyone else including the ultra-donk to my buddy list and will look for them in the future. If they are going to throw their money away I want to be at their table!!!
First I agree with BigE...at the limits I play I am more skilled and combined with good table selection leads to the donks and the inevitable bad beats. When I get a "bad beat" I generally analyze my play immediately to see it I played it bad (gave odds for the suckout) or if it was truly a bad beat.
For table selection I check my buddy list for players first. But I also use players per flop and avgerage pot. I like alot of players per flop but not really high pots cause that seems to be a loose agressive table to me. I prefer a moderate pot size relative to the limits, indicating loose/passive
Your list ie
- You are far more skilled than the majority of your opponents (at least at a specific game/limit).
- Your table selection is above average (since you are finding the bad tables).
- Most players are simply ridiculously bad, so skill and table selection don't really matter. Barely above average is a big edge.
Something else I'm missing?
covers some but not all of the potential factors. I will give my take on them and other thoughts in general.
Regarding skill, the fact that you take time to read poker message boards likely means you are more skilled then most online players. Many at low/mid level have almost no real feel for the game and play on a very simple level - ie: what cards do I have and that is about it.
If you are above average skilled at the limit you play then you will have more bad beats, however you also will get paid off a lot more when people call your hands with ace high/3rd pair etc as many of these bad players are willing to do.
Keep in mind this requires you to adjust your play accordingly. I had a bad stretch on Party 3/6 Bad Beat Jackpot limit over a year ago when I was playing too aggressive and trying to get people off hands that if they had any sense they would fold. They sucked as players and generally dumped money but I did not win as much as I should have when I did not properly adjust my play to these 80% flop/ ultra passive players. A simple example - raising preflop on the button with K 10 off into two blinds who never fold rarely worked out too well.
I do not think table selection is that huge a factor, unless there is a key player or two on it that is utterly horrid. Table composition changes so much and the stats shown in the lobby may not be totally indicative of the table. If the pot average is insanely high, likely you will be taking the seat of the maniac dumping all his money after he leaves.
Many players are bad, very bad. I have seen so many people believing their losses are due to rigging and whining about bad beats even when they were underdogs (ie all in AKh vs 84 o on a flop of 10h8h2c, guy with the pair yelled about the site being rigged after he was "sucked out" despite being about a 3/2 dog. I have seen worse in Omaha where people with the flopped nuts cant figure out they can be even a 2-1 underdog to a big draw post flop).
There are many variations of bad though and the trick is to adjust your play accordingly. There is loose passive calling station bad. Best to not bluff these. One sit and go I was in I watched player after player all in bluff a guy who simply would not fold and his A high /K high bottom pairs kept holding up. One after another they called him a fish , donk etc and while they were right the fact is they played worse without realizing it. Meanwhile I happily bet my made hands and checked my weaker ones and got paid off over and over by him.
Maniacs are a different form of bad, a frustrating form potentially in that they usually take 1 or 2 players down with them as they zero out (this is even worse in Omaha). You will have to accept the fact that there will be times where a guy who loses 50 BBs in a maniac session takes 20BBs of yours with him. I lost to a maniac the other day in my BB vs his SB 3 times in a row AA<82 JJ< 10 6 and AK<K4. He dumped all his chips and mine with it, nothing I could do.
Against these guys play your strong hands and let their aggression pay you off extra whenever you hit. Win big pots lose small ones.
Another variation of "bad" is the higher limit player screwing around at lower limits. Their play will be maniac style but they also know what they are doing so you need to be a bit careful. It always amuses me to see random people mock these guys because push comes to shove these "idiots" will clean up on these typically rocky random people. Rebuy tournaments during the rebuy persiod will also feature a lot of unorthodox play that is not always bad as their goal is to get a huge stack to better make the final table even if it costs them a handful of rebuys.
using sites like sharkscope and pokerdb can help determine when this type of player is at your table. Id be more conservative against them and play very big hands hard, and if you can get it all in preflop with a good hand do so and take your chances.
Also, bad play may not be bad play at times. I always chuckle when a person calls me a donk/fish after I "suck out" on them by hitting some draw I had pot odds or implied odds to "chase." There are many hands where noone played it wrong despite eventually some of the people losing. Make sure you do not fall into the trap of believing an opponent is bad when they may have played correctly. Note, an offshoot of this is that there are many times (especially limit) where a bad player playing badly does the proper play though not because he realizes it is the proper play. Hope that does not sound too confusing, but with practice you can identify these players and put them in positions where they make the wrong plays (after that hopefully math will take care of itself).
Overall I guess I would say this
- Bad streaks of bad beats happen. I recently lost KK 10 times in a row including a 4 way all in post flop vs AQ AQ and A 10 where the last ace hit on the river :P. I hate when they happen but they are part of the game.
- The best weapon you can have is adjusting your play accordingly to the players at the table. If you multi table a lot of tables like I do it really helps to use a legal software package combo like Pokerace HUD and tracker.
- If you hit a very nasty run, take a bit of time off. I took a day off after getting one outed 3 times in an hour in Omaha including a guy who with 33xx went all in post flop vs my KKxx on a flop of K 8 3 rainbow and hit his 3 river. After he claimed he put me on a draw
- Last, look at your play and see if and where you made some errors both before and after the bad beats (ie: tilt etc).
Hope this helps.
It is of my opinion that bad beats are hand specific. Your “edge” is the +EV of your play when the money goes in on that particular hand.
If you are suffering an abnormally large number of bad beats it can definitely be associated to your table selection. Here is an example:
Sometimes you will play at a table with at least one maniac. Quite often they will begin to tilt the rest of the table and they all lose their minds. I can take advantage of this by playing abnormally tight and at lower limits they rarely even notice that I am playing 15% of the hands. I look for opportunities to re-raise pre-flop with premium hands and try to goad some tilt monkey into getting all-in before the flop hits the board. I will almost always have the best hand when the money goes in.
Often this situation arises. We are all in pre-flop. I have KK and villain has A-10 off. I am a 70% favourite here pre-flop. This is a play that is +EV but guess what. I am 30% to lose this hand. You will lose in this situation almost 1/3 of the time. However a 70% edge is a big edge for you to exploit! But you will take some beats in this type of situation.
You can also limit the number of beats as well with table selection: Find a rock garden and bully them for 10-12 BB per 100 hands. Push, push, and push while they fold, fold, and fold. When they push back you are probably beat. If all of your profit comes from stealing small pots you will rarely take bad beats.
Personally I like the LAG table better. You can sometimes win 3-4 buyins per 100 hands instead of 10-12 BB’s. However you can over short term lose more in this type of game when you are running bad with the cards.
I would say that if you are getting a ton of bad beats your table selection is excellent and so is your play. Congrats Beanie!
Note on bad beats:
Many players do not really understand what a bad beat really is. A guy on Stars berated me the other day when I cracked his AA. He pushed the last of his stack in the pot after the flop and gave me pot odds of 3-1 to make the call (he was pretty short stacked to begin with). I had an open-ended straight flush draw for 15 outs twice (54% to catch). The call was a no-brainer but he went off about getting sucked out on. Hey buddy this is NOT a bad beat you are just stupid!
As well I don’t really consider losing a 60-40 or even a 70-30 like the situation with the Kings above a bad beat. To me a true bad beat is when a guy hit his 2 outer on the river when we get all in on the turn.
Caddy
/g2
My own table selection varies. In limit I don't think table selection really matters at the low limits since you can't really push anyone off a hand after the flop typically. My play varies with the type of table I am at. A rocky tight table will have my raising all sorts of hands in late position and re raising if played back at.
In nl even low limit NL I like to see an average pot size of about 20 Big blinds with 4 or so people going to see a flop. I find if the table is too tight in NL you can't make any money.
Partly true I think...you may be correct when you say you can't push someone off a hand at those limit levels, however I don't think that has much to do with table selection. It may not be imperative to success at those limits but do not discount it's importance. You can most definitely add to your success by taking the time to investigate the tables. I look for tables with lots of players seeing the flop and medium to large pot sizes and players that are sitting with less money then the average buy in. This suits my tight style as I can punish all the limpers and chasers and I think good table selection is finding one that suits your style so you can crush the competition because as my hero Samuel L. says "yes they deserve to die, and I hope they burn in hell!"
Another thing I think people can easily neglect is leaving a table if it turns out bad or changes...some players stay at the same table regardless. If I find myself at a table that has either changed styles and no longer suits me or I have miscalculated and find myself being outplayed I leave, I could care less if I'm down or up I will not stay to try and make any amount back...there are far too many tables and games to choose from so I'll go off and try to find another soft one, I think it does pay off in the end.
Too funny...funny because it's true...lately anyways...sorry Mark...hopefully soon you'll hit some of those MANY outs
Flop comes AK3 (Rainbow)
The flop would have been around $35 and he bets out $30ish and i raise it to around $120 and he calls.
Turn brings a king giving me kings full and I am only beat by AA (1 out), and AK(drawing dead).. I know he would of raised both of those hands from his play.
He leads out $150 and i put him all-in and he calls and flips over A5. yes A5, meaning he is kicked bad with a kicker that plays
You guessed it, ace on river and he takes down the pot.. I regrouped and won a lot of money that night, but thats my worst beat recently.
Worst i dished out, was a live 1K touranment at Casino Rama in Ontario where i had 89s hearts on the button with around 80% stack to average. With 3 limpers i also limped and the flop came 5h, 7h, 2h
The BB moved all-in and i called and he showed Kh, Jh
6 of hearts on the river and my straight flush is good. I went on to make the money in the tourney where i would have been bust on the loss there.
Tonight's winners were the ones who knocked me out in the rebuy tournament at stars during the second hour. Hey I never post bad beats, but what the heck!
Dealt to Monteroy [Ah As]
Monteroy: calls 200 (normally only limp utg in rebuy period but table was wild aggressive, didnt expect a billion limpers after).
flopdead: calls 200
joe99: folds
49erblitz: calls 200
KitKatK: folds
All Donk: folds
EMO1988: calls 200
Joyra75: calls 100
wendgin: checks
*** FLOP *** [Jh 3s 8s]
Joyra75: bets 400
wendgin: folds
Monteroy: raises 1000 to 1400
flopdead: folds
49erblitz: raises 1400 to 2800
EMO1988: folds
Joyra75: folds
Monteroy: raises 8250 to 11050 and is all-in
49erblitz: calls 3087 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Jh 3s 8s] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [Jh 3s 8s 2c] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [Ah As] (a pair of Aces)
49erblitz: shows [5h 4d] (a straight, Deuce to Six)
flopdead said, "lol wtf"
49erblitz collected 13374 from pot
Monteroy said, "ok"
Guess putting him on a flush draw or top pair was a bit off
lolwtf boy finished me off a few hands later :P
Dealt to Monteroy [As Kd]
wendgin: folds
Monteroy: raises 400 to 600
flopdead: calls 600
joe99: calls 600
49erblitz: folds
KitKatK: folds
All Donk: folds
EMO1988: folds
Joyra75: folds
*** FLOP *** [4c 2h 8d]
Monteroy: bets 5988 and is all-in
flopdead: calls 5988
joe99: folds
*** TURN *** [4c 2h 8d] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [4c 2h 8d 8s] [5h]
Monteroy said, "ok"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [As Kd] (a pair of Eights)
flopdead: shows [3h Ah] (a straight, Ace to Five)
flopdead collected 14301 from pot
After I checked and saw both dump money in sit and gos (pokerdb is not up so could not check multi tournies, but do not expect much) I did feel oddly better.
My first posts of bad beats in hands in about 2 years, I feel dirty now =O