KK in MP with UTG min-bet
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about a hand from last night which I horribly mis-played post-flop. I've chalked that up to "monkey-mind", but I've been thinking about my pre-flop raise.
.25/.50 NL - 9-handed table with mostly tight/passive's and 2 LAG's. For background, my normal opening raise is $1.75 - $2.25 (3.5 - 4.5 times the blinds). Also, UTG started the hand with $24, most of the table is playing $15-$50, and I have everyone covered.
UTG is TP and min-bets. My read is he either misclicked or has a really good hand (AA-QQ or possibly/unlikely AKs). I'm UTG+2 and have KK, so I'm raising. I don't want to raise too much since there is a strong chance UTG has AA so I want to keep the pot small. Also, if he did mis-click I want to leave the pot small enough to get a bit of action behind me. The trick is that I don't want to raise too small to encourage garbage calls and make the hand more difficult post-flop.
Considering the UTG min-bet and a bunch of players yet to act, how much do you raise here?
.25/.50 NL - 9-handed table with mostly tight/passive's and 2 LAG's. For background, my normal opening raise is $1.75 - $2.25 (3.5 - 4.5 times the blinds). Also, UTG started the hand with $24, most of the table is playing $15-$50, and I have everyone covered.
UTG is TP and min-bets. My read is he either misclicked or has a really good hand (AA-QQ or possibly/unlikely AKs). I'm UTG+2 and have KK, so I'm raising. I don't want to raise too much since there is a strong chance UTG has AA so I want to keep the pot small. Also, if he did mis-click I want to leave the pot small enough to get a bit of action behind me. The trick is that I don't want to raise too small to encourage garbage calls and make the hand more difficult post-flop.
Considering the UTG min-bet and a bunch of players yet to act, how much do you raise here?
Comments
I would likely pop it to $2.75 or even $3 in an attempt to isolate.
If I get reraised I would be willing to lay it down and if he calls I can play in position.
Interesting. I'd love to hear out it turns out.
A pot sized raised is perfect. So, .75 + 1 + 1 (your call) = pot. So raise to 2.75 + 1 or 3.75 -- perhaps an even 4 is also good depending on how loose they are. You really want to isolate or take the pot down. Would be really yucky playing a pot with min raiser + others behind you == recipe for disaster.
As I'm making my raise I want to consider how much this commits me to the pot/hand. I think you can get away from the hand if min raiser then raises all in, as you're pretty deep --- if you feel you're very sure about his range of hands that min raise -- re-raise all in, which is one hand AA.
But at this limit, in this type of game, I'm not overly worried about AA. My main concern is to get the pot heads up against min raiser and managing the pot size according to the flop texture.
Cheers
Lou
i would like to point out that 2/3 hands you put him on (this doesn't include KK because that's unlikely) you are dominating 2/3 hands you put him on, folding here is ridiculous...
I did have a pretty good read on him, and if I put a player on AA I don't think folding is wrong at any limits (unless your advice is ignore your reads at low-limits)
I don't actually think they are weighted equally - QQ and AK are possible but not as likely as AA or the other KK.
He later told me he had AA, and I believe him.
Mark
FullTiltPoker Game #1399707572: Table Pergola (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:06:43 ET - 2006/12/12
Seat 1: Mephistio88 ($49.50)
Seat 2: objectDVR ($122.90) --> Crazy aggressive
Seat 3: DrTyore ($49.05) --> Hero
Seat 4: Trendkill 79 ($42.05) --> Squeeky tight
Seat 5: ang2000006 ($13.80)
Seat 6: zicoTJ ($47.75)
zicoTJ posts the small blind of $0.25
Mephistio88 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DrTyore [Kc Kd]
objectDVR raises to $1
DrTyore raises to $3
Trendkill 79 raises to $42.05, and is all in
ang2000006 folds
zicoTJ folds
Mephistio88 folds
objectDVR folds
DrTyore: Ugh
DrTyore has 15 seconds left to act
DrTyore folds
Uncalled bet of $39.05 returned to Trendkill 79
Trendkill 79 mucks
Trendkill 79 wins the pot ($7.75)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7.75 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Mephistio88 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: objectDVR folded before the Flop
Seat 3: DrTyore folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Trendkill 79 collected ($7.75), mucked
Seat 5: ang2000006 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: zicoTJ (small blind) folded before the Flop
So Beanie, if you put him on QQ-AA or AKs, you were a 52% fav. It would be hard for me to get away from that hand, even facing a re-re-raise pre-flop.
Kyle and Greg have both pointed out that against the range QQ-AA,AKs I win 52%. This is technically true, since there are 6 QQ, 1 KK, 6 AA, and 2 AKs, so I'm ahead 8/15. However, I don't weight the range equally, since it doesn't seem to make much sense.
This player has shown himself to be fairly tight and unimaginative. Raising UTG is why I gave him credit for such a big hand. However, he hasn't made a min-raise before, and I can't see him doing that with most hands other than Aces. Assuming he would actually minraise with a hand other than AA only 25% of the time, the likelihood would increase to him having aces 73% of the time. Even with a min-raise 50% of the time
he'd have aces 57%.
How would others do this sort of analysis, or do you not take into account that some hands are more likely than others in a given range? I'm not trying to see MUBS, however I am trying to do my best to read my opponents better.
Remember, the 3rd raise is 95% AA but the 4th one is 99.99% AA but a smooth call is YIKES!
This should be printed on T-shirts and bumper stickers.
It would have to be an extradonary set of events to lay down KK preflop in a cashgame.
Jay