Pocket Kings in the SB
I was rail birding a friend when the following hand occurred. We end up getting into a debate about it and I was wondering what your opinions on this are:
Blinds are $.1/.25 NL Hold’em on Full Tilt.
Player A limps (total stack $25), Player B limps (total stack $20), every one folds, you in the SB get pocket Kings (You have a total of $32). You raise to $1.50, the BB folds, and both Players A and B call.
You have no reads on the players other then they both appear to be loose.
Pot is $4.75.
Flop comes 2-8-6 rainbow.
You bet $4.75
Player A and Player B calls.
Pot is $14.25
Turn is another 8.
What do you do?
Blinds are $.1/.25 NL Hold’em on Full Tilt.
Player A limps (total stack $25), Player B limps (total stack $20), every one folds, you in the SB get pocket Kings (You have a total of $32). You raise to $1.50, the BB folds, and both Players A and B call.
You have no reads on the players other then they both appear to be loose.
Pot is $4.75.
Flop comes 2-8-6 rainbow.
You bet $4.75
Player A and Player B calls.
Pot is $14.25
Turn is another 8.
What do you do?
Comments
In any case I would have to put at least one of them on an 8 since they called the pot bet on the flop, the other? Hard to say. I do know I would have been trying to keep the pot smaller post flop as I am out of position against 2 opponents...
I would bet about $10.
Lose $20 bucks more to trips or a full house
You could make a cute little bet on the turn..say $3-5 even. Something that screams.."I've got the eight- please pay me!" and see where you are then.
I think the big hands smooth call, everyone else gets out of your way. (if you haven't taken them off crazy hands with a pot-sized bet on the flop, would $10 work now?) I agree with compuease about the post flop bet being too big.
I also agree with Kristy - any little bet is pointless - the stacks simply aren't deep enough. Without reads I think this is more a question of your tolerance for variance. You simply need to decide if you're committed to the hand. If not, check/fold, and save your chips. Otherwise, make a pot-size bet and call if he pushes. While you will lose sometimes, I think you're ahead often enough here that it would still be +EV, assuming you can handle the swings when you lose.
But this is a classic example of how you lose a lot of money with a big pair.
Neither player could have an 8 - or both players could.
OR, and this is what you pray (or prey - both work) for - One player has 8x and the other player is holding 2-2 or 6-6.
So now you have to think logically. I am I calling a pre-flop raise with 22 or 66? YES, if the opponent has the funds behind to pay me off.
Would I call preflop with 7-8, 8-9 (suited or unsuited). If I am the player in last position - and especially if I put you on a big hand (increasing the chances of you paying me off with your SINGLE PAIR). Maybe or YES.
Implied Odds are huge at these low levels because players will dump their entire stack on a pair of AA and then bitch about how they got sucked out - when they put in 80% of their chips when they are already behind.
Remember a pair of Aces or Kings are just that - You have to ask yourself - would make that call if you had only hit top pair?
Well you pretty much nailed the hands right on. My friend pushed all-in and got called from both players. The player A had pocket 6's and player B had 8-9 suited.
My friend was bitching that he got totally sucked out on, but I was trying to explain to him that when he bet on the flop and got two callers he had to think that there was the possibility that one of them had an 8.
I think I would have made another $4 bet on the turn and if any player raised or called I would have been done with the hand.
Sure, pre-flop the bet of $1.50 is 6x the BB, and in "real poker terms" that's a huge bet - dude must have AA / KK.
In "real money terms" What's $1.50? One less coffee? Oh well.
Welcome to the mind of LL donkeys
Mark
While I agree it's only 1 pair and should be an easy laydown against skilled/respected opponents, we are talking about loose low-limit players (with no other reads). I'm curious why you would assume they must have a hand which beats you? Am I the only one who has seen somebody go to showdown with an overpair to the board or a gutshot in these situations? I'd have to spend some time to list the hand ranges I'd expect would have played this way (limp/call pre-flop and flat-call the flop) and do the math, but I'm fairly certain you're ahead more often than not. Unless I'm just getting lucky in finding the worst of the worst at the cheap tables...
Honestly I think this is poor logic, since the action behind you will tell you next to nothing. If they raise, are they making a play or do they have an 8? What about a check - are they trapping or weak? Raising or check/folding are both options, but I can't see check/calling or check/raising as being valid options here. You have the initiative and if you relinquish it you go from a bad spot to a worse one. You need to decide if you are playing this hand before you act, not after the action behind...
I will have to respectfully disagree. If I am going to bet I want to bet to find out where I am - In many respects I did on the flop. A pot sized bet, will in many cases, tell me where I am.
I would like to bet here but the pot is too large to make a decent bet without being committed.
I agree with McEvoy on this, you dont always have to bet to find out where you are - its ok to check to find out - and much cheaper.
I would make a decision by the action following me whether or not I was behind.
FURTHER - if you notice I believe I called BOTH hands CORRECTLY with no more information than the original post.
Technically I called them too Tom, but the op implied something interesting happened the conclusion isn't really that much of a stretch.
Doesn't negate what Beanie is saying..and in the actual span of the game I wonder if your style of play isn't a bit too timid and maybe a 'monsters under the bed' mindset, despite the fact that in that particular instance it may have worked out?
You are correct it likely is too timid.
That is the nature of my game - likely due to Omaha.
I have taken steps to decrease my feelings of always being beat - and generally I bet stronger to find out if I am.
Specific to this situation - I dont see what turn bet you could make that would allow you to find out where you are.
If you bet $5 that is the same bet as previous but into a much bigger pot - therefore what information does this give you???
You can bet the pot around $20 - but the max buy-in for this is about $25 - You are probably covering the other players and committing yourself. So you dont gain anything here - unless someone calls with pocket 99-QQ. I dont see the advantage.
I am not saying I always check KK in first position after I bet the flop strong - but under these circumstances I dont see the benefit of betting - because I dont see a strategic bet to make.
(Oh and I didnt read the part about the interesting finish
I havent played these LL NLHE games in a while - but I know what you mean - I could easily include AQ or AJ in the range as many players would call here hoping to hit over cards only...
PokerStars Game #7039312005: Tournament #35952352, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/11/15 - 19:31:55 (ET)
Table '35952352 19' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: CONG13 (2255 in chips)
Seat 2: PHILIL (2635 in chips)
Seat 3: lilcwillow (2827 in chips)
Seat 4: mrh75 (3210 in chips)
Seat 6: inukshukacre (2390 in chips)
Seat 7: flopthefrank (7025 in chips)
Seat 8: MetroTNORTH (4165 in chips)
flopthefrank: posts small blind 50
MetroTNORTH: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MetroTNORTH [Ks Kh]
inukshukacre said, "vg"
CONG13: calls 100
PHILIL: folds
lilcwillow: raises 300 to 400
mrh75: folds
inukshukacre: folds
flopthefrank: calls 350
MetroTNORTH: raises 1200 to 1600
CONG13: folds
Kniksen is connected
lilcwillow: raises 1227 to 2827 and is all-in
flopthefrank: folds
MetroTNORTH: calls 1227
*** FLOP *** [4d 8c Qd]
*** TURN *** [4d 8c Qd] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [4d 8c Qd Ad]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MetroTNORTH: shows [Ks Kh] (a pair of Kings)
lilcwillow: shows [7c 7d] (a flush, Ace high)
MetroTNORTH said, "wow"
lilcwillow collected 6154 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6154 | Rake 0
Board [4d 8c Qd Ad Td]
Seat 1: CONG13 folded before Flop
Seat 2: PHILIL folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: lilcwillow showed [7c 7d] and won (6154) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: mrh75 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: inukshukacre (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: flopthefrank (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: MetroTNORTH (big blind) showed [Ks Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
so what do you do when the better hand pushes?? how do you know it's better?? IMHO you have to bet the turn here... $10ish, if someone goes over top, you fold. otherwise i think that i'm ahead and i'm pushing on the next street.
In my opinion, if you are going to bet $10 here and fold to a re-raise you are tossing your money away. If you are not re-raised you are being called - and how does that help you act in first positon on the river?
If you give them the range of 22,66,88,QQ-AA,78,89,A8,A6,AK I believe it's ahead 34 times, behind 37 times, and 1 push. At these limits most players couldn't fold other hands such as AQs, JJ, 9T, all of which are ahead. Theres a bunch of other hands that I would add personally (since I've seen some pretty silly stuff), but even here you're very close. Factor in any possibility of somebody making a bluff ("just like on da tee-vee") and I think you're ahead of the range.
My main problem with my reasoning is that you are against 2 opponents, so it is a slightly worse spot. However, I really can't see action behind you telling you much, so to me checking is surrender. As I mentioned, I'd bet around the pot, and call any push. I'd expect to lose about 1/2 the time, get a single call behind about 1/4 and have it folded to me about 1/4 (and occasionally I'll have 2 callers). With $15 in pot and $20 back, that means:
50% net -25
30% net +30
20% net +10
So overall, I'd be losing $2.50/hand (roughly - for simplicity ignore things like suckouts). So, my recommendation appears to be a loser when I look at it more closely - my bad
I'd really be interested in seeing how you expect a check to play out, barring a called all-in before it gets back to you. What action do you call/fold to, and how often do you really expect each to happen? Surrender loses a little over $5 a hand, so even pushing is better than that... I'll wait for your "later" response
I agree here - the information you're getting is almost useless, but I'm not sure how the information behind you is much more useful. Personally, I wasn't betting for information in my example, but under the (mistaken) assumption that I was ahead often enough to make it worthwhile.
If both sets of information are going to be useless - ask yourself - which set is free.
That is why I check.
i was in a similar situation recently in a live 1/2nl game that was very loose. i had QQ in EP and raised to $11 with about $70 behind. got 3 callers including the BB. flop comes 422 with 2 spades. i bet out half the pot and was called by the button. hard to say what to put him on but let's say he was playing a lot of raised pots. could have had a higher PP (not likely), an overpair (more likely), spades (most likely), any 4, any 2 or even A3 or, god forbid 53. turn came an offsuit 7. i couldn't check that with the potential of letting him draw out on me. the only bet that made sense to me was to push my remaining 50 or so. of course he called with A2 soooooooooted. could i have avoided that? i duuno.
i have to ask, is this a polite way of saying "YOU SUCK" to your opponent?
I'm a NL donk, but I'm with Watts and TNORTH on this one. Mainly because I'm in the midst of reading Sklansky/Miller's NL book and and the advice given sounds highly familiar. Know why you're betting. Betting $10-20 here for "information" is horrendous since it's pretty much pot committing you. If you check and the action gets crazy behind you I think it's fairly easy to get away from. I mean, 2 opponents called a sizable flop bet on an uncoordinated board and even if it was best case that they have something like top pair, that hand is now ahead of you to boot. While beanie may be right in that you can be ahead of their ranges you don't know and are out of position, betting is pot committing yourself. Remember, the preflop raise really wasn't that big considering the implied odds your giving wrt to your stack size.
In your range you say about half their hands have you beat. Against 2 opponents presumably on about the same range that means you're beat around 75% of the time so your math seems off. The other thing is that a lot of the hands you beat may not call a push, whereas all the hands that beat you will, so that hurts your equity. Also you seem to be anazlyzing the bet by counting money made/lost in the entire hand which just makes things more complicated. I really don;t feel like doing a lot of calculations right now but one simple math point
If both your opponents are 50/50 to have you beat, and you all have one pot sized bet left (this is about right for the problem), AND assuming your opponents always call with all their worse hands, then ignoring suckouts on the river which (this only helps you bnecause you always have 2-4 outs when behind, they could have more), 3/4 times you push and get called by a better hand losing one PSB, and 1/4 of the time they both call and you win 3PSB, to break even. In reality you WILL get called that 75% of the lose but you will not get called in 2 spots/at all every time you have the best hand, so your bet has negative expectation (ie folding is better). You can modify your hand ranges etc.. that's fine but it's still not my main point.
Let's assume you take the strategy of check/calling an all-in and if it gets checked through you will push any river card. The only way this can be worse than just bombing all-in is if we lose value from a hand that would have called a turn push but not a river push (or somehow got away the way the turn action ended up going), or when we have the best hand and an opponent who would have folded to a turn push draws out on the river. The first is not really a big concern I don't think especially since if the turn checks around and the river bricks and we push we are more likely to get called by worse hands than if we had just pushed the turn since w showed weakness. The second point is not a big deal either since combined our opponents probably only have 4-5 outs anyways. However you've said that the action behind us doesn''t tell us much. For this to be the case our opponents must be bluffing/mistakenly betting worse hands some % of the time. Any time they bluff with a hand they would have folded to our push we gain. If they are at all aggressive we actually gain a lot of value this way. If ontop of this we are able to get away from our hand correctly some non-trivial % of the time then we've gained even more. Notice if the board was more draw-heavy then the push would usually be better than check/call. So what this paragraph shows is that check/call > push.
So now our options are check/call and check/fold. But we definitely want to check. Whether to fold or call depends on the action behind us, player's tendencies, hand ranges, etc... and is hard to give a clear answer in a vacuum. Definitely if it goes push/call before us i think the fold is easy, otherwise is read dependant.
The list of actual hands was as a starting example to show how close we are (to being ahead). The range I would actually use if I were playing would include other hands like TT or 9T, which is why I mention I think I'd be behind around 1/2 the time (against 2 opponents). It might be a bit more but not much (I usually see ranges you could fly a plane through at these limits).
You can't really make a "read dependant" play here since the OP indicates "no reads on the players other then they both appear to be loose" which is what makes this tricky. And probably the only hand which beats you that doesn't check behind is AA, so we're simply delaying our decision till the river. If it goes check/small-raise, check/check, or check-push, we still face a tough decision (now and/or on the river). I'm starting to understand (although not totally sold yet) why checking could be better, but I still don't see how this helps us to win when we're ahead?
On a side-note, I agree with Greg that this is a great discussion. I'm starting to see where I'm bleeding a little due to my often correct read of my opponents ranges not lining up with the actual math/odds behind. Ignoring trying to understand everyone else's POV, my own POV proved to be -EV when I crunched the numbers, which was very surprising and really annoying - yuck! At least I've found it - now time for triage...
Well when I watched my friend play this hand we ended up discussing it for quite some time afterwards and I figured that it would be good to post, and to see what people on the forum would say.
One of the problems with this hand is that I think my friend is a little too aggressive; he tends to play his hands very fast, so I think it was difficult for him to believe that one of them could have an 8 or even have him beat or even get away from it with the large raise pre-flop and then the pot size bet.
***I appreciate that this is somewhat different but it should help to illustrate the situation***
Imagine the same scenario BUT you are holding AK. The flop is 8 6 K. You bet out the pot. You recieve two callers. The turn is another 8. You hold a pair of Kings with top kicker. Do you commit your stack on this? Unfortunately (or fortunately), many players will in this situation.
This is the exact reason why we play our small pairs preflop to big bet if the opponent has enough chips behind to justify the call.
Nothing is more satisfying than flopping a set on a player who has TPTK or a big pair and just cant let it go - I say satisfying because this situation is usually the most profitable and fun to play.