5R Hand

specialK

uhm 5R on stars... solid player

PokerStars Game #6829303891: Tournament #34618948, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2006/10/30 - 14:36:44 (ET)
Table '34618948 69' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Karl Marx (21650 in chips)
Seat 2: KTEN24 (7310 in chips)
Seat 3: thebigugs (23285 in chips)
Seat 4: vendo (6845 in chips)
Seat 5: hakimo13 (18374 in chips)
Seat 6: skeeta111 (10338 in chips)
Seat 7: sylvia01 (17518 in chips)
Seat 8: AWGraham (13250 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: nogravs (7960 in chips)
Karl Marx: posts the ante 25
KTEN24: posts the ante 25
thebigugs: posts the ante 25
vendo: posts the ante 25
hakimo13: posts the ante 25
skeeta111: posts the ante 25
sylvia01: posts the ante 25
AWGraham: posts the ante 25
nogravs: posts the ante 25
KTEN24: posts small blind 200
thebigugs: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to thebigugs [Jh Jc]
vendo: folds
hakimo13: folds
skeeta111: folds
sylvia01: raises 17093 to 17493 and is all-in
AWGraham: folds
nogravs: folds
Karl Marx: folds
KTEN24: folds
thebigugs: folds
sylvia01 collected 1225 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1225 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Karl Marx (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: KTEN24 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: thebigugs (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: vendo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: hakimo13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: skeeta111 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: sylvia01 collected (1225)
Seat 8: AWGraham folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: nogravs folded before Flop (didn't bet)

just curious what is the range you put this guy on? and would you have done the same thing i did?

pkrfce9

you left out too many details. tell me a story.

i'd say at worst you're a coinflip. more likely a heavy fav. i'm leaning towards calling. you were big blind? you were already halfway there! plus you closed the action. YOU GOTTA GO!

STR82ACE

Were you still in the rebuy stage? If so, easy call.

Even if you weren't I would still probably make the call, but like Greg said, you left out too much info.

"half way there..."
God, I'm beginning to really hate this cliche.

Kristy

This may be the first conservative thing I've ever said ..but I like the fold. I think its a gambling call, and in the absence of some form of read I think a fold with JJ is completely fine..different if you told me he had been shoving every fourth hand..or really loved his mid. pairs..or if you/he were shortstacked.

If he's willing to push..45+bbs he just wants that 825 more than you..let him have it, you can find better opportunities than this, I think.

specialK

sorry i left out my read... i just figured i shorten it with "solid player" but yeah, he hadn't been pushing at all... i was very confused by his move, but i'm pretty sure i was at best a coinflip... didn't want to risk it... any ideas for a range of hands that he may have been holding?

oh and yes it was after the rebuy period... if it was in the rebuy i would have called for sure

Pokerinwaterloo

Easy Fold imo.

STR82ACE

Easy fold? I can't see that, with the information originally outlined. Yea, sure, you might be up on your read, but what if it were the final nine players of the tournament?

Sorry, maybe I haven't been playing that long, but I really don't think you can easily toss JJ in ALOT of situations.

Sure if you're read on the player is that he likes to raise into an empty pot for a small pot, or he would be the kind to ONLY push with bigger pairs, but there simply isn't enough information to suggest other than 'solid player'. A good solid player will mix it up anyway.

pkrfce9

specialK wrote: »

any ideas for a range of hands that he may have been holding?

ok so i'm baffled without more info on the table's behaviour. were people likely to call big bets with speculative hands? had he be burnt before by someone calling a standard raise with garbage? i'm trying to decide if he'd make this move with a monster hand.

generally i would NOT give the guy credit for AA or KK. he'd want a caller with those hands, wouldn't he? when i see someone put in a big raise, i'd expect him to have a hand that doesn't want action. i know some people who may play QQ like this. likewise JJ down to 99 perhaps. maybe even 88 down to 22 in some cases. also hands like AK want to avoid difficult decisions after the flop so going all-in would let them see all 5 cards assuming someone had a hand good enough to call. AQ could also make this move but not as likely from a 'solid' player in MP. i'd give the QQ-99,AK range a 80% probability.

alternative, he's up against some kind of deadline and has decided he either accumulates chips now or busts. in this case, he could be playing much weaker hands. i'd assign this maybe a 10% probability.

2nd alternative, he's a tricky guy with AA or KK and hopes someone will call his ridiculous overbet with a great hand like JJ or AK. i'd assign this maybe a 10% probability.

here are some numbers:

solid hands (80%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.2323 % 56.66% 01.57% { JJ }
Hand 2: 41.7677 % 40.20% 01.57% { QQ-99, AKs, AKo }

speculative hands (10%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 64.7533 % 64.20% 00.56% { JJ }
Hand 2: 35.2467 % 34.69% 00.56% { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+ }

tricky hands (10%)
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.6581 % 18.45% 00.21% { JJ }
Hand 2: 81.3419 % 81.13% 00.21% { KK+ }

put it all together, i come up with about 55% against the ranges. factor in the money already in the pot and it is tempting. other factors also come into play - are you already in the money or close, are you running out of time, do you feel like gambling for a better shot at winning?

feel free to argue which hands should be in each range and the likelihood of each range. it's all about discussion!

Kristy

assigning the speculative hands such a loose range and then making them equally weighted to the tricky ones feels wrong...far more likely he's shoving in that huge a stack with aces/kings than the hands listed as speculative..don't you think?

I'm going to do something obscene and just assign the numbers based on gut ...I'd say it would be something more like:
Solid: 70%
Speculative: 5%
Tricky: 25%

SirWatts

As strange as it is I've seen people do this with AA and KK before. I think it's pretty close either way, if he has seemed really tight a fold seems fine, though I think this is probably AK a lot. A range something like this feels about right to me on average.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.2287 % 41.86% 01.37% { JcJs }
Hand 2: 56.7713 % 55.40% 01.37% { TT+, AKs, AKo }

So folding seems slightly better, but it's all very read-based.

Kristy

I think if you were going to really be accurate you should chop the 'spec.' hands into pairs and non pairs

He's WAY more likely to shove with 88 than j-9s isn't he?

Maybe beef up the Tricky hands a bit more as well..they are slightly ahead of the 'solid' hands as I've set them..but perhaps even a bit more?

Pokerinwaterloo

I really don't believe there is anything to think about here. You have 23k chips when the blinds are 200/400 - why would you risk 17k on JJ when there are 850 chips in the pot. You can find better spots.

Unless this guy is pushing in every hand, calling in this spot is a huge mistake.

Kristy

I said the same thing earlier.

I think this is a debate between instant reactions..yours and mine is to fold..others call. Its interesting to see how we all justify our initial gut feelings..I like seeing the ranges and probabilities attatched.

pkrfce9

Pokerinwaterloo wrote: »

I really don't believe there is anything to think about here. You have 23k chips when the blinds are 200/400 - why would you risk 17k on JJ when there are 850 chips in the pot. You can find better spots.

Unless this guy is pushing in every hand, calling in this spot is a huge mistake.

i like to see the math to justify this. so i can understand why this is such a simple fold. what range of hands do you put a guy on if he's willing to push 45xbb?

mike and kristy, good insightful posts. mike, do you think the chances he's playing AA this way are the same as the chances he'd play TT like this? that's why i split the ranges up and assigned each one a distinct possibility. not sure if this is worthwhile or not.

kristy, i will repost with the ranges split up more.

pkrfce9

ok. let's make the ranges a bit finer

(likelihood of hand * JJ win % = likelihood win%)
(24% * 19% = 5%) monsters: AA, KK
(60% * 53% = 32%)solid: QQ-TT, AKs, AKo
(8% * 81% = 7%) med pairs: 99-66
(5% * 81% = 4%) sm pairs: 55-22
(5% * 61% = 3%) big cards: ATs-AQs,AJo-AQo,KJs+
(3% * 71% = 2%) speculative: A2s-A9s,A7o-ATo,K9s-KTs,KTo,Q9s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo,98s

for a grand total of around 53% likelihood of winning against the ranges of hands above. adding in the dead money in the pot already...

so it is close. other factors are likely to determine if you call.

Pokerinwaterloo

This is a gambling call - you do not need to gamble at this point of the tournament. If you are a winning player, you do not want to get into a race for all your chips unless you absolutly must(IE. your shorstacked).

If you tell me, this guy definatly has A/K, I fold - you need to believe your ability to outplay players. If you don't think you have a edge on the game, I guess you want to get all your money in the middle.

Alot of players get eliminated at this point in the tournament calling in these kind of spots - I really believe thats a big leak in alot of tournament players game. Get it all in when your a big fav, not when you might be racing...

Regarding your hand range, this player was classified as solid - I don't think there is any chance this guy is playing speculative hands. I honestly believe that the best spot you can be in here is a race - this guy is probably just waiting for big hands and pushing...

Bruno

pkrfce9

I'm not really disagreeing with you, Bruno. I just wanted to see the numbers to justify the decision.

It is slightly +EV to call but a high variance move. I'm guessing a player like Chris Ferguson might call while Dan Harrington may let it go. Given that I would not consider myself in the top group of players in that tourney, I probably make the call. Kyle, meh...

specialK

are you comparing me to dan harrington? lol thank you greg... he is much much better than chris ferguson btw...

specialK

so anyway, after all this great discussion and number crunching... 2 hands or so later this guy did the same thing and got called by someone with QQ and sylvia showed AQ. so in hindsight this definately changes the range of hands that i was thinking of originally.

pkrfce9

well at least the guy with QQ had some balls

Pokerinwaterloo

lol - specialK is definatly ball-less