Sit-n-go experiment
Since I played the WSOP my poker has been a little listless. I am not focussed because I have no goal. So, I have set a goal... buy a Land Rover LR3. Cash. That's got me motivated. How long will it take? I started to wonder if I could make $100 USD per hour by playing four $50+5 sit-n-go's at once. If I could boast a modest expectation of 1.5 per sit-n-go I would succeed.
So, does it work? I have played 100 $50+5 sit-n-gos that pay 50% first, 30% second, and 20% third.
First: 10 ($2500)
Second: 13 ($1950)
Third: 10 ($1000)
No money for Davey-boy: 67
Total cost: $5500
Gross: $5450
Net: -$50
Total time about 25 hours. Profit per hour = -$2 per hour. Ugh.
Not what I had hoped. Also, I note that the only spot I actually exceeded expectation is in the second place spot (normal expecation is 10 finishes in each position).
In the next 100 I am going to chart my exact place of finish. I feel like I did not finish in 10th ten times so maybe I am frequently getting to 5th and then not crossing the threashold often enough.
So, does it work? I have played 100 $50+5 sit-n-gos that pay 50% first, 30% second, and 20% third.
First: 10 ($2500)
Second: 13 ($1950)
Third: 10 ($1000)
No money for Davey-boy: 67
Total cost: $5500
Gross: $5450
Net: -$50
Total time about 25 hours. Profit per hour = -$2 per hour. Ugh.
Not what I had hoped. Also, I note that the only spot I actually exceeded expectation is in the second place spot (normal expecation is 10 finishes in each position).
In the next 100 I am going to chart my exact place of finish. I feel like I did not finish in 10th ten times so maybe I am frequently getting to 5th and then not crossing the threashold often enough.
Comments
A while back I was trying to figure out if I would make more per hour than in a ring game. Or lose less whatever the case may be
See I was thinking that perhaps my variance is likely to be lower. What do you think?
Very interesting post. Let us know how you do. And did any problems come up where you might get to heads up with all four tables at once? And if so do you think it affected your play at all because of the increased amount of hands you are playing at once?
Variance skyrockets in tournaments.
I realize it may skyrocket in large tournaments but in a 10 person sit N go that pays 30% of the field would it not lower?
The *levels* you play at are critical. It depends on which cash game exactly you are comparing to a $50 SNG.
Do you care about how much money is at risk? In a SNG you put exactly $55 at risk. You can reasonably say that that much is at risk per hour at a 2-4 or 3-6 game (say, in 95% of the hours or something like that). But, it's pretty clear that the simple difference in amounts is going to make the SNG's higher variance.
How about comparisons of EV? Dave has roughly estimated his EV as 1.5, which (I think) means +0.5. In other words, he expects to make $27.50 per tournament. How about comparing that to a cash game where he expects to make $27.50 per hour? Would that be 5-10? 10-20? 2-4 NL? Now it's getting a little closer.
The main thing is that standard deviation (and variance) provides a measure of deviations from the mean. (Or, poker players like to call the mean the EV.) The thing with tournaments, is that the payout structure is extremely discrete, and almost every observation is an outlier. You're getting a data set like -55, +35, +225, +85, -55, -55. Lots of deviation (in absolute value) from the mean. In a cash game on the other hand, you'll probably get more hourly results in the ballpark of the mean. Sure, cash games measured by the hour are still going to have pretty high variance, so I don't think it's all that clear cut which is more variable.
Ultimately, a disciplined, emotionally stable, well bankrolled cash game player only cares about variance when determining if he/she is in fact well bankrolled. If you have sufficient funds, you want the highest +EV game out there whatever the variance. If you have considerations such as protecting a limited bankroll, you'll have to trade off some +EV in order to also lower your variance. (I.e., play lower limits/buy-ins)
ScottyZ
Dave, you kill me.
Regards,
all_aces
For the 50+5 tourneys on Partypoker, this would mean an approximate SD of $145. I think this is lower than you could expect in ring game with a similar buy-in.
You might be interested in a confidence calculator and spreadsheet that I have devised for tracking SNG results.
They can be found here
http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/Spreadsheet
It is better to type the site in manually than to link to it as some have had trouble downloading the excel sheets by linking
As far as your poor results, I suspect that the normally excellent quality of your tournament play might actually be hurting you here. SNG poker has a few unique elements to it that differs from ordinary tournament play. The best example I can think of is the SNG bubble.
Because in a multi, the end payout of 1st so greatly exceeds the small payouts found just past the bubble, it doesn't make sense to tighten up on the bubble and in fact can be a good place to take advantage of other players weakness.
In SNG Poker, This is different. The jump from 4th to 3rd in the same as the jump from 2nd to 1st and entitles you to 20% of the prize pool. This makes taking chances on the bubble a crucial error and probably the biggest leak in most ordinarily successful poker player's games.
I'll give an amazing example. Consider a bubble situation where you held TT in the small blind and an opponent raised all-in with what you suspected was two overcards. In fact, for the sake of argument, lets just say that you know for a fact he has QJ. Consider also that each player is equal stacked with 2500 and the blinds are 100/200.
What is the correct play here. You are a favorite so most players would say it is a clear cut call. In fact, this is a fold.
The reason is that you can consider yourself roughly 75% to get into the money at this stage and you are settling for a slight edge in a near-coinflip.
I know many will say that I am wrong and that the bigger stack will give you a better chance for the 1st prize money, but it is not enough. I will not go into those calculation here, but rest assured, or calculate it yourself. It is amazing to think that folding hands which are sometimes even 60/40 favorites is correct but that is SNG poker.
The flip side of this is that you should be aggressive with a lot of hands yourself because skilled players will have a hard time calling for the same reason. At 50+5 I am usually pushing K9+, Axs, A7+, All PP, and any two cards over T if I have less than 10 BB.
This is somewhat situational as weak players will give me calls that I don't want, but for the most part it is true at 50+5 and higher limits.
As far as a 50% ROI expectation, I don't see why a player of your calibre couldn't get close, but between four tables it might be tough.
In my experience, the best SNG players can get as high as 40-50% ROI at 50+5 and less than that at higher stakes.
Regards
Brad S
For the ring game are you talking about standard deviation per hour? I think that's fair since your average play in a SNG lasts about an hour.
My SD at a 2-4 game is about $40 per hour, and $55 isn't typically a high enough buy-in for that game. I think your hourly SD for a ring game with a similar buy-in is going to be much lower than the $50 + $5 SNG.
On the other hand, if you're talking about a ring game with a similar EV to the SNG's (maybe 5-10 or 10-20), then the hourly SD of such a ring game might turn out to be higher than (or at least close to) the $145 SNG figure.
ScottyZ