woog30
Similar to poker @SeekTheGrail doesn't play unless he is 30% ahead.
compuease
DataMn;c-423729 wrote
There will be some coverage on Twitch, but it will most likely only be the top tables, so it is doubtful I will be in one of those games unless I am put there by random in the first couple of rounds.
I will post the link to follow the standings here just before the tournament.
But surely they will broadcast the final table that you will be at...
DataMn
With 23 games remaining, I am able to do an exhaustive search:
All 8,388,608 scenarios:
Steve: 53.30%
Allen: 24.25%
Rob: 11.14%
Gayle: 6.07%
Joe: 3.08%
Joanne: 2.12%
Henri: 0.04%
Kevin and Jamie are confirmed as fully eliminated.
DataMn
The UK/KState game on right now looks to be a big swing game...
If UK wins it goes Steve 63.58%, Allen 28.37%, Rob 1.57%
If Kansas State wins it goes Steve 41.94%, Allen 19.5%, Rob 18.5%
moose
The bs shooting foul on the KS guard when he was clearly passing was key to the KS swing in momentum late in the game. After that KU trailed for the rest of the game.
DataMn
Standings after round 2...
Name - Points - Max Poss Points
Allen - 43 - 86
Rob - 43 - 83
Joanne - 43 - 77
Steve - 42 - 92
Gayle - 40 - 86
Kevin - 40 - 76
Jamie - 38 - 69
Joe - 37 - 66
Henri - 28 - 49
Of the 32,768 paths remaining, here is the number of paths to victory for each player:
Steve - 30.38% win outright, 31.83% equity overall
Allen - 27.47% win outright, 30.7% equity overall
Rob - 11.43% win outright, 12.33% equity overall
Gayle - 9.92% win outright, 11.69% equity overall
Joanne - 5.87% win outright, 8.9% equity overall
Joe - 4.1% win outright, 4.44% equity overall
Henri - 0.0% win outright, 0.12% equity overall
DataMn
There is only 1 way for someone to claim the pool outright by Friday night...
Of course, I would have to have all of the following happen...
Alabama over San Diego St
FAU over Tennessee
Michigan St over Kansas St
Miami over Houston
Arkansas over UConn
UCLA over Gonzaga
DataMn
Here are the equities after each of the paths for tomorrow's games, in order...
KSTATE - ARK - FAU - GONZAG Joanne 46.29%, Rob 36.52%, Joe 10.94%, Gayle 6.25%
KSTATE - ARK - FAU - UCLA Allen 66.34%, Rob 17.7%, Joanne 15.95%
KSTATE - ARK - TENN - GONZAG Steve 39.26%, Joanne 33.98%, Rob 12.3%, Joe 8.20%, Gayle 6.25%
KSTATE - ARK - TENN - UCLA Allen 57.13%, Steve 33.0%, Joanne 9.86%
KSTATE - UCONN - FAU - GONZAG Gayle 32.81%, Rob 24.61%, Joe 10.94%, Joanne 6.15%, Allen 1.56%
KSTATE - UCONN - TENN - GONZAG Steve 75.7%, Gayle 14.03%, Joe 5.47%, Joanne 3.48%, Allen 1.32%
MICHST - ARK - FAU - GONZAG Rob 49.02%, Gayle 16.7%, Joe 10.94%, Allen 3.13%, Henri 0.68%
MICHST - ARK - FAU - UCLA Allen 81.05%, Rob 17.77%, Henri 1.17%
MICHST - ARK - TENN - GONZAG Steve 58.54%, Rob 13.72%, Gayle 10.99%, Joe 8.2%, Joanne 5.91%, Allen 2.64%
MICHST - ARK - TENN - UCLA Allen 66.99%, Steve 33.01%
MICHST - UCONN - FAU - GONZAG Gayle 35.92%, Rob 25.54%, Steve 23.93%, Joe 10.94%, Allen 2.62%, Joanne 1.06%
MICHST - UCONN - TENN - GONZAG Steve 77.59%, Gayle 15.33%, Joe 5.47%, Allen 1.51%, Joanne 0.2%
ANY - UCONN - FAU - UCLA Allen 57.23%. Steve 23.83%, Gayle 18.95%
ANY - UCONN - TENN - UCLA Steve 48.39%, Allen 46.19%, Gayle 5.42%
moose
FAU FAU FAU!
moose
Mich st OT baby!
moose
Boo Mich st
Hoot hoot! OWLS!
moose
Ziggy zaggy Ziggy zaggy oi oi oi!
No baskets from the field by UCLA for over 11 minutes in the second half until only 1:14 left.
That 3 pointer to win the game was STONE COLD.
moose
If Zags win their next and Houston wins it all, I win. Amirite?
DataMn
Well, the UCLA game hurt. Now the best I can do is tie and hope for the tiebreaker.
But, it does make things a lot more interesting for the pool
Equities after the results for tomorrow:
BAMA-HOU-CREIGH-TEXAS: Gayle 46.09%, Rob 23.44%, Steve 23.44%, Joanne 7.03%
BAMA-HOU-CREIGH-XAVIER: Gayle 28.91%, Rob 26.56%, Steve 23.44%, Joe 18.75%, Joanne 2.34%
BAMA-HOU-PRINCE-TEXAS: Gayle 32.03%, Steve 24.22%, Rob 23.44%, Joanne 14.06%, Allen 6.25%
BAMA-HOU-PRINCE-XAVIER: Steve 46.09%, Rob 26.56%, Joe 18.75%, Joanne 4.69%, Gayle 3.91%
BAMA-MIAMI-CREIGH-TEXAS: Gayle 70.31%, Rob 21.88%, Joanne 7.81%
BAMA-MIAMI-CREIGH-XAVIER: Gayle 53.13%, Rob 25%, Joe 18.75%, Joanne 3.13%
BAMA-MIAMI-PRINCE-TEXAS: Gayle 34.38%, Rob 21.88%, Joanne 15.63%, Allen 6.25%
BAMA-MIAMI-PRINCE-XAVIER: Steve 43.75%, Rob 25%, Joe 18.75%, Gayle 6.25%, Joanne 6.25%
SDGST-HOU-CREIGH-TEXAS: Gayle 43.75%, Rob 25%, Steve 25%, Joanne 6.25%
SDGST-HOU-CREIGH-XAVIER: Joe, Rob, Gayle, Steve - All 25%!!!
SDGST-HOU-PRINCE-TEXAS: Gayle 31.25%, Rob 25%, Steve 25%, Joanne 12.5%, Allen 6.25%
SDGST-HOU-PRINCE-XAVIER: Steve 50%, Rob 25%, Joe 25%
SDGST-MIAMI-CREIGH-TEXAS: Gayle 68.75%, Rob 25%, Joanne 6.25%
SDGST-MIAMI-CREIGH-XAVIER: Gayle 50%, Rob 25%, Steve 25%
SDGST-MIAMI-PRINCE-TEXAS: Gayle 31.25%, Rob 25%, Steve 25%, Joanne 12.5%, Allen 6.25%
SDGST-MIAMI-PRINCE-XAVIER: Steve 50%, Joe 25%, Rob 25%
DataMn
Congratulations to Gayle, the winner of the pool!
She is already in first, and with all of the bracket carnage, the only way for anyone to gain any points is for Texas to win, who she picked to win both today and in the semifinal.
If Texas loses today then Steve gets second place.
If Texas wins today, but loses in the semis then Joanne gets second.
If Texas makes it to the Finals, then I get second place.
moose311
Bingo!
moose
Reminder that next Sunday is selection Sunday and then the pool will open. Process and link is same as 2023.
Deadline to enter is Mar 21 at noon. Will start new pool thread next Sunday. STill $20
Also weird search results:
@compuease
