djgolfcan
Looking for opinions on how you would play this hand.
UTG+2 has As-Qc
$1/$2 NL - UTG+2 raises to $20 ($400 behind), mid position ($150 behind)calls, SB ($800 behind) calls, BB ($300 behind)calls
Flop is Ad-2c-5d - Blinds check, UTG+2 bets $25, everyone calls - pot is now ~$180
Tun is As - SB leads out for $50 - BB calls - $280 in the pot
UTG+2 ??
UBetIFold
Hmm, first, a $20 open seems really high, I could understand more if there are a bunch of limpers behind but seems on the high side.
Flop, generally speaking is pretty good. But I think a bet of $25 is much to low. There's 80 something in there. I think 45-50 cbet is better.
Turn is interesting. I mean, utg+2 is clearly repping an ace by leading out on the flop, albeit small. I guess it's a good card for us, or a really bad one because our hand is now stronger and maybe harder to let go.
SB can def have 22 & 55 here a lot, although a raise may have been better with those holdings on the flop as its so likely someone has TP.
I guess it's also very likely they have the case A also. A8s, AJ, A2 etc, it's probably pretty close.
Not in front of a computer right now to poker stove their range against our holdings but, i might be a fish here, but I think I just call, and it's likely to go HU and AQ is IP going into the river. SB is also really deep so if we hit a good card we may get paid a ton.
Edit: SB leads turn and bb calls. If we call it's 3-way to the river IP
pkrfce9
I think all the players are fish. Is this woodbine?
Bfillmaff
I'm hopping on the variance train and shipping over the top of the bet/call. I expect to be called by a worse hand often, win the pot right there sometimes, and occasionally get called by A2, A5, 55 etc. To me, the $25 bet on the flop followed by a call seems skewed towards weak aces and flush draws, and with those possibilities out there I'd give him a chance to make a big mistake. With the stack sizes lining up perfectly to get a nice pot sized bet in for the rest, just ship it!
djgolfcan
This is at Casino Niagara. I was not involved in this hand but was interested to see more thoughts on it.
Card Dead
If this is a normal Niagara table with the standard mix of players, the $20 pre is pretty standard in that spot if it's later in the evening. Ppl get tired of losing to junk hands with AK, AQ, pp, etc. because 6 ppl will call $12 there. And as you saw, 4 ppl called $20. Also, knowing ppl will call bigger raises with weaker holdings, some players try to max out pots with premium holdings preflop as many will fold when they miss the flop.
The $25 on the flop is a weak bet for AQ and should bet bigger here. You get almost no info here as a set or a draw probably just flat in this spot. You can maybe rule out AK tho.
I don't think we're good against 2 players here a lot of the time. Especially with both Vs being in the blinds, I see lots of Ax suited or small pairs call $20 pre in that spot because they "have pot odds" or (if better players) are eyeballing the other stacks and figure they have implied odds to take a flier on a big pot. We could be up against one draw or weaker A, but not likely both.
Depending on what type of players are in the blinds, I'm thinking we need to improve here 90% of the time, and given the pot size, stack sizes, and position, I'd flat and see what happens on the river.
djgolfcan
One of the reasons I don't like flatting the SB bet, is that any flush draws are getting an amazing price to stay in. If we just flat, its four players to the river.
But the problem with jamming is what hands are calling us ? Weaker Aces are the only one's I can see. Any hand that has us beat is calling, though.
Do we care if we are folding out the draws ? Is there enough in the pot to just take it down now ?
And, are we ever folding here, regardless of the river ?
Card Dead
As I noted above, I'm assuming the AQ needs to improve here to win, so I'm not overly concerned with the flush draw.
Your second point is in line with my thinking - if you jam, you're only getting called by a better hand.
And yes, I would fold on the river if I don't improve and I'm facing a large bet, especially if I'm not the only caller.
Bfillmaff
I really don't see a ton of reasons to assume we're behind. Sure we are sometimes, but I'm not folding. Therefore, get it in on the turn to ensure we're paid by Ax.
edit - subject to any reads of course, if we're talking about a confirmed nit then let it go obviously.
Bfillmaff
Side note, I'll be river bluffing Glen often... :)
djgolfcan
Bfillmaff;392815 wroteI really don't see a ton of reasons to assume we're behind. Sure we are sometimes, but I'm not folding. Therefore, get it in on the turn to ensure we're paid by Ax.
edit - subject to any reads of course, if we're talking about a confirmed nit then let it go obviously.
The remaining players are loose, pre-flop for sure.
To keep the discussion moving, UTG+2 (A-Q) jams - mid position player calls and now the SB is pained and tanks for a long time. This is for almost half his stack and the BB is still to act.
What hands are you calling this shove with and more importantly, what hands are you putting the other players on ?
compuease
djgolfcan;392771 wroteUTG+2 has As-Qc
Personally I'm calling a suit... A's for UTG+2 and on the turn?
djgolfcan
compuease;392818 wrotePersonally I'm calling a suit... A's for UTG+2 and on the turn?
Oops, nice catch. He had AQ, not sure of the exact suit.
compuease
So you are in the SB? As played I'm calling with 22's, 55's and 3,5d, expecting to lose to A,2 or A,5.
Card Dead
Bfillmaff;392816 wroteSide note, I'll be river bluffing Glen often... :)
Against one V, I'd agree with your line of thought, but against 3, what are you putting all of them on that's behind AQ?
BTW, against you, I snap with KQ off. :D
djgolfcan
compuease;392820 wroteSo you are in the SB? As played I'm calling with 22's, 55's and 3,5d, expecting to lose to A,2 or A,5.
its funny, you catch the fact that there are two Ace of spades but completely missed the part that I am not in this hand, lol. :)
Card Dead
He also missed that the 5d is on the flop AND in his calling range.
I chalk it up to the fact that he's up way past his bedtime.
Bfillmaff
Card Dead;392821 wroteAgainst one V, I'd agree with your line of thought, but against 3, what are you putting all of them on that's behind AQ?
Yeah they're in the hand - but all they've done is passively called extremely small flop and turn bets. With that board we should have heard about it on the flop if we're against A2, A5, 55, 22. I think A3 A4 A6 A7 A8 A9 A10 AJ AQ (and maybe AK) would play this way though. Same with the flush draws, say KQd, QJd, T9d, 98d, 87d etc. The other oddball hands get discounted by the preflop action - He could have 34, but shouldn't. Could have AA, but shouldn't. Same with the 54d, 53d, etc's.
And besides, this deck has two of every card - you have plenty of chop outs to quads!
JimmyHo
djgolfcan;392771 wroteLooking for opinions on how you would play this hand.
UTG+2 has As-Qc
$1/$2 NL - UTG+2 raises to $20 ($400 behind), mid position ($150 behind)calls, SB ($800 behind) calls, BB ($300 behind)calls
Flop is Ad-2c-5d - Blinds check, UTG+2 bets $25, everyone calls - pot is now ~$180
Tun is As - SB leads out for $50 - BB calls - $280 in the pot
UTG+2 ??
I think you need to raise on this board. $25 on the flop seems pretty weak and lets a lot of weaker hands out turn you. If anyone had two pair already or the straight on the flop, you would have likely got re-raised so I would expect to be ahead on this turn. I likely bump it up to $150-$170. You will likely get called by a weaker ace. Too much limp calling going on in this hand.
djgolfcan
JimmyHo;392825 wroteToo much limp calling going on in this hand.
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