fifty50 SNG bubble in the CO w/ 55

Bfillmaff

pkrfce9;387903 wrotei know you and trigs are among a few people here looking to learn and share (plus you do good gifs and i enjoy poking trigs) so i took a brief amount of time to dig into this and i did the mathz, too.

no guesswork needed, this is nash shit! unfortunately nash only looks at shove/fold decisions. it would be nice to expand this to look at other options but that would take more work, not sure how much.

as CO, you should be shoving 26% of your hands if first to enter. even so, BU is correct to call your shove with 100% of his hands, SB should call with only 7% and BB with almost 11%. If you aren't called, your ev goes up by 2.5-3% so you decide if you think it is worth the slight risk of extreme loss. I guess if the BB isn't playing sensibly, you might want to tighten up your range.

we really should get that study group going for people who want to talk poker and not a lot of extra garbage. i'm guessing with the fifty50 games, there are a lot of exploitable players. i played a bunch a while back and noticed a lot of non-optimal play before i got distracted with those shiny spin n goes and life in general.

i need to get back to work, but I love this. Will be back on later to look into closer.

pkrfce9

Bfillmaff;387906 wrotei need to get back to work, but I love this. Will be back on later to look into closer.

i re-did the analysis and the numbers changed slightly. make sure you use my updated number.

pkrfce9

Bfillmaff;387904 wroteI included only AA KK QQ AKs (could argue that QQ/AKs are questionable, but left them in as he does have more chips than we do)

that's like a 2% calling range. it should be a lot wider than that to be optimal.

So I think we're moving towards a consensus that rasing > folding. What are the benefits of shoving vs min raising (and vs, say, 3x-ing??)

some players do small raise near the bubble to entice a shove from an aggro. some do it so they can get away from it if they face aggression.
it seems like a big game of chicken sometimes and it is up to you and the BB to sort it out.

i've always felt 2x vs a loose big stack in the bb wasn't enough to get a fold. especially if he has shown no inclination to ever fold. chances are good you will face a decision after the flop.

anything above 4x almost commits you to the hand so you're better off shoving. maybe 2.5-3x is optimal? and if he shoves, do you snap fold?

from his perspective, he doesn't want to call off a lot of chips with a garbage hand. he might shove if he is almost certain you'll fold. QQ is even a tough call for you in that spot. you really need to know your opponent here.

if he calls, do you do a continuation bet? do you fold against aggression?

lots of questions follow a decision to make a small raise with a good but not a monster hand. sometimes simple is better :)

the nice thing about the shove is it takes any tough decisions down the road out of your hands. more risky. but easy. wetts probably has it right. he is a pretty smart guy.

trigs

it almost sounds like a poker forum on here today. wtf?

pkrfce9

trigs;387915 wroteit almost sounds like a poker forum on here today. wtf?

I try to get out but they keep pulling me back

Wetts1012

pkrfce9;387909 wrote
the nice thing about the shove is it takes any tough decisions down the road out of your hands. more risky. but easy.

Thats about it.

The prob with 2/3 xing is that if we happen to run into a competent BB we are very easily exploited, and our calling range becomes even smaller than the villains if we shove!

As an example, with the stacks the way they are (BB>hero, lots of cripples) Im shoving almost my entire range in the BB vs. button min raise. Vekked once posted here somewhere coining the phrase rape equity. BB has lots of it here if we min raise.

Shoving here is the least exploitable avenue, and our hand is far too strong to fold.

pkrfce9

I tend to agree. I also tend to get called and find a way to lose. Boo me.

Bfillmaff

pkrfce9;387909 wrotethat's like a 2% calling range. it should be a lot wider than that to be optimal.

Lets put some hands into this range so i can try to fix my math.

Assuming we shove, BB calls with what hands?

Bfillmaff

Wetts1012;387921 wrote Shoving here is the least exploitable avenue, and our hand is far too strong to fold.

That is a great way to put it. Looking at each play in terms of exploitability makes a ton of sense and is something I need to better work into my thought process.

Fucking rape equity LOL

trigs

am i correct in thinking that 55 is the bottom of my range here? can we be profiting pushing 22+ in this situation? the math seemed pretty close.

Bfillmaff

I think if we do get called we're crushed pretty much regardless of what cards we have - so we could make this play with any two cards. We obviously can't just shove every time though so to keep our bet frequency in line (around 30% according to Greg's #'s) we can look at the hand ranges:

top 30% would look like this, so you are pretty much correct that 55 is the bottom.

I would think it makes sense to add the rest of the aces and maybe even the rest of the pairs, instead of (or on top of) hands like T9o, Q7s, K5s - making it look like this:

Wetts1012

This is a different scenario if payouts are all equal. However, since the amount of chips impacts our equity, we can most likely profitably shove 22.

Wetts1012

Put another way, I think BB has a hard time calling JJ here, and unless he's a competent player, almost certainly folds TT. We have to keep in mind the tournament is most likely finished in the next 3-4 hands.

pkrfce9

Wetts1012;387944 wrotePut another way, I think BB has a hard time calling JJ here, and unless he's a competent player, almost certainly folds TT. We have to keep in mind the tournament is most likely finished in the next 3-4 hands.

Not according to Nash. But how many of these guys know Nash? We didn't. Lolz.

He should be calling 16% of his hands. That is a pretty broad range. Plus he can afford to gamble here.

Tcarnage

Wetts1012;387921 wroteThats about it.

The prob with 2/3 xing is that if we happen to run into a competent BB we are very easily exploited, and our calling range becomes even smaller than the villains if we shove!

As an example, with the stacks the way they are (BB>hero, lots of cripples) Im shoving almost my entire range in the BB vs. button min raise. Vekked once posted here somewhere coining the phrase rape equity. BB has lots of it here if we min raise.

Shoving here is the least exploitable avenue, and our hand is far too strong to fold.

Yah I'm snap shoving this as well.

Even though you said BB has been opening lots, opening and calling is completely different. I hate minraise/folding in this spot, since BB should be jamming you extremely wide here...

« Previous Page