fifty50 SNG bubble in the CO w/ 55

trigs

just wanted to hear some opinions on this hand. i'm in the CO with 55 and am currently sitting in 2nd place with a decent stack of around 15BBs before the hand is dealt. one more elimination ends the tournament (and a reminder that the more chips i end with the more money i win).

there are two very short stacks of 175 and 575 and a third at 900 with blinds at 125-250-30 ante. also, villain in BB has the big stack (the only stack that can bust me) and has been betting/raising almost every hand and punishing the passive shorter stacks.

since this was a fifty50 i thought differently than a normal SNG and folded. what do you guys think of this play?

PokerStars Tournament $6.68+$0.32 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (125/250)
Table '1078850756 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: BUTTON (175 in chips)
Seat 3: SB (900 in chips)
Seat 5: BB (5570 in chips)
Seat 7: UTG (3850 in chips)
Seat 8: HJ (575 in chips)
Seat 9: HERO (3930 in chips)
BUTTON: posts the ante 30
SB: posts the ante 30
BB: posts the ante 30
UTG: posts the ante 30
HJ: posts the ante 30
HERO: posts the ante 30
SB: posts small blind 125
BB: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [5c 5h]
UTG: folds
HJ: folds
HERO: folds

Bfillmaff

Ya I think folding is correct with the aggressive big stack in the BB and the super short stacks passivley waiting to bust.

Could make an argument for min raise and fold to reraise but it seems like an unncessesary risk.

djgolfcan

Easy fold on the bubble with two micro stacks still in. In fact, I'm folding until the money, regardless of the hand.

trigs

djgolfcan;387862 wroteEasy fold on the bubble with two micro stacks still in. In fact, I'm folding until the money, regardless of the hand.

if this was a double or nothing, i'd agree with you in folding to the money. however, since a bigger stack makes more money i disagree with this strategy in general (obviously, in some cases you should be folding in that manner though depending).

in fact, it's this kind of thinking from my opponents that makes me like these fifty50s. if i'm a big stack on the bubble, i like to ignore the small stacks and pick on any of the medium stacks who are just choosing to sit back until the money. they keep folding and i get more chips while short stacks just struggle to hold on.

pkrfce9

I bet on 2p2 someone would do the ICM for this

Bfillmaff

pkrfce9;387864 wroteI bet on 2p2 someone would do the ICM for this

I bet you could figure it out if you tried

trigs

pkrfce9;387864 wroteI bet on 2p2 someone would do the ICM for this

yeah, i don't know how to do the ICM with the different payouts in these SNGs.

pkrfce9

Bfillmaff;387866 wroteI bet you could figure it out if you tried

And?

djgolfcan

My bad, I thought it was a double or nothing SNG. Having said that, I still tighten up, alot and would fold said 55. We;re in a crappy position and the big stack can 3 bet almost any two cards and we have to fold all but the premiums.

Bfillmaff

OK I did some mathz, and unless I fucked something up the min raise blind steal is better than folding by about $0.53 in this format if you think he will fold around 70% of the time. (and both options are of course better than shoving.)

disclaimer: the math is pretty crude. think its close enough to make sense:

Wetts1012

I'm definitely not folding for precisely the reason that there are cripple stax.

pkrfce9

Bfillmaff;387878 wroteOK I did some mathz, and unless I fucked something up the min raise blind steal is better than folding by about $0.53 in this format if you think he will fold around 70% of the time. (and both options are of course better than shoving.)

disclaimer: the math is pretty crude. think its close enough to make sense:

I think your math and your assumptions are off. But conclusion is correct.

Bfillmaff

pkrfce9;387882 wroteI think your math and your assumptions are off. But conclusion is correct.

which parts?

trigs

Bfillmaff;387878 wroteOK I did some mathz, and unless I fucked something up the min raise blind steal is better than folding by about $0.53 in this format if you think he will fold around 70% of the time. (and both options are of course better than shoving.)

disclaimer: the math is pretty crude. think its close enough to make sense:

thanks for running the numbers. i figured it was pretty close.

trigs

Wetts1012;387879 wroteI'm definitely not folding for precisely the reason that there are cripple stax.

i'm assuming you are assuming that others will be playing tight and folding because they are waiting for crippled stacks to lose.

are you min raising with the plan to fold to a BB reraise?

Wetts1012

trigs;387891 wrotei'm assuming you are assuming that others will be playing tight and folding because they are waiting for crippled stacks to lose.

are you min raising with the plan to fold to a BB reraise?

Think about the reasons you folded this hand.

You can safely assume that the BB is equally minded.

I would suggest that BB calling range is far less than what's been provided above.

I'm shoving.

trigs

Wetts1012;387894 wroteThink about the reasons you folded this hand.

You can safely assume that the BB is equally minded.

I would suggest that BB calling range is far less than what's been provided above.

I'm shoving.

thanks for the input wetts.

pkrfce9

Wetts1012;387894 wroteI would suggest that BB calling range is far less than what's been provided above.

ding! ding! ^this

but i don't think shoving is optimal. probably not 'wrong' enough to make a huge difference, though.

pkrfce9

Bfillmaff;387883 wrotewhich parts?

i know you and trigs are among a few people here looking to learn and share (plus you do good gifs and i enjoy poking trigs) so i took a brief amount of time to dig into this and i did the mathz, too.

no guesswork needed, this is nash shit! unfortunately nash only looks at shove/fold decisions. it would be nice to expand this to look at other options but that would take more work, not sure how much.

as CO, you should be shoving almost 30% of your hands if first to enter. even so, BU is correct to call your shove with about 25% of his hands, SB should call with QQ+and BB with about 16%. If you aren't called, your ev goes up by 2.5-3% so you decide if you think it is worth the slight risk of extreme loss. I guess if the BB is playing a bit laggy, you might want to tighten up your range.

we really should get that study group going for people who want to talk poker and not a lot of extra garbage. i'm guessing with the fifty50 games, there are a lot of exploitable players. i played a bunch a while back and noticed a lot of non-optimal play before i got distracted with those shiny spin n goes and life in general.

Bfillmaff

Wetts1012;387894 wrote
I would suggest that BB calling range is far less than what's been provided above.

I think you are correct on that part. My #'s above were based on 80% fold to shove vs 20% call - which is for sure way too high.

...Actually not sure how I missed that, as when I gave villain a calling range (for the equity when called) I included only AA KK QQ AKs (could argue that QQ/AKs are questionable, but left them in as he does have more chips than we do)

So I think we're moving towards a consensus that rasing > folding. What are the benefits of shoving vs min raising (and vs, say, 3x-ing??)

I still have the excel file I used for that so I'll plug in some better numbers and see if we can make shoving look better.

And lastly, what else did I miss?