i'm bored: prop bet feeler

trigs

there is no guarantee that i will do this!

i was talking to a friend about this and i thought i'd post here for some comments. if i do this, i will probably see if anyone wants any action (and maybe we can make things a bit more fun and exciting around here).

okay, here's the bet:

every day (meaning between midnight and 11:59pm), for ten straight days, i must play at least 500 hands of zoom omaha $0.02-$0.05 (i can play as much as i want, but i must play a minimum of 500 hands per day).

i must show a profit every day even it is just one cent. (note: i don't have to profit every session - i.e. i can take a break when i'm down to relax and grab some lunch, for example, but i must finish the day in the black.)

if i fail to show a profit on any single day - i lose. if i fail to play 500 hands in a day - i lose.

if i show a profit every day and play at least 500 hands a day for ten straight days - i win.

so what do you guys think?

i'm interested in what people think is a fair line in this bet. i'm under the impression that i should be laid some odds for this. opinions? interest?

(again, no guarantees that i am doing this for sure - just throwing some ideas around. if anyone has any interesting prop bet ideas i'd be willing to listen as well.)

UBetIFold

Hmm interesting to see what odds you lay. I'd say it'd definitely be a tough challenge.

trigs

UBetIFold;369502 wroteHmm interesting to see what odds you lay. I'd say it'd definitely be a tough challenge.

it'll definitely be difficult for sure as i'm pretty much playing against variance. however i really feel like i could do it as long as i had the time (i.e. if i need to i could play 2000 hands in a day just to fight to get back to even if necessary).

i probably wouldn't be able to do this while i'm working though as i wouldn't have the time i think. i'm thinking march break maybe. nothing is certain yet obviously.

The Prophet 22

What is your usual hands per day playing zoom? What is the max buy at this level?

trigs

The Prophet 22;369506 wroteWhat is your usual hands per day playing zoom? What is the max buy at this level?

max buy-in is $5.

i probably average under 500 hands per day. i don't know for sure but my guess is probably between 300-400 hands per day/session during the week. sometimes on the weekends i'll hit 1000+ in a day with my highest being maybe 2200ish.

also depends on how many tables i play. i usually play only one but sometimes i'll two table (any more than that on zoom just gets crazy for me). for this bet i'd be two tabling every time most likely.

i may be wrong (i'm not at home to check the averages) but on average you're probably seeing 60+ hands an hour (probably even more) on zoom. basically, i'd be playing at least 3 hours a day i think to hit 500 hands.

EDIT: okay, i was a bit off lol. just jumped on pokerstars and the average hands per hour currently are >150. i play a lot on my phone which doesn't show all the stats so i wasn't sure about them. so, most likely i can pump out 500 hands on two tables in 2 hours-ish.

The Prophet 22

u going to do this march break or sooner. i put odds up definitely need to now the max on tables in order to make the odds for you. i am in halifax right now helping my brother redo his kitchen. I will look at it tonight. let me know when you want to do it.

Wetts1012

10 straight profitable days is running significantly over expectation, I would take this bet against your success.

FU Trigs.

Wetts1012

I would also need confirmation on whether you can reload or not after the session.

trigs

Wetts1012;369517 wroteI would also need confirmation on whether you can reload or not after the session.

yes, i can reload whenever (i usually just have it set to always top up to 100BBs), but every time i reload or top up, i'd still have to win all that back in the one day to show a profit.

i'd also be allowed to check/fold hands just to keep my profit. for example, there's 50 hands left and i'm up enough that i can pay the blinds and fold everything else and still finish with a profit for the day. hence, i'm not "forced" to play any hands.

The Prophet 22

500 hands per day
must show a profit every day even it is just one cent.
yes, i can reload whenever
every time i reload or top up, i'd still have to win all that back in the one day to show a profit.

if i show a profit every day and play at least 500 hands a day for ten straight days - i win.

if i fail to show a profit on any single day - i lose.
if i fail to play 500 hands in a day - i lose.

I will do 10.00 at 4:1

Let me know ^-^

payperview

I know Trigs can accomplish this. I will take $10 at the same odds just to motivate him more.

UBetIFold

I'd do the same at those odds, although, I think you'd need better odds for yourself. What Wetts said, I'm wondering if 10-1 would be a more realistic line to set.

trigs

i'm flattered that people think i have a 20% chance at achieving this lol. despite my personal confidence, 4:1 might be a little too low odds for me to accept.

yeah, i was thinking more around 10-1 maybe. my friend is pretty much 100% sure that i can't do this, and to be honest, i think i can get much better odds from him ;) (we are discussing settling on 20-1 as he has absolutely zero confidence in me lol)

it's not like i have to just show a profit after a minimum of 5000 hands, but i have to show a profit all the way through! definitely tough i'd think.

The Prophet 22

UBetIFold;369555 wroteI'd do the same at those odds, although, I think you'd need better odds for yourself. What Wetts said, I'm wondering if 10-1 would be a more realistic line to set.

I am currently not working and not collecting EI so I will stick to my 4:1 ^-^

UBetIFold

The Prophet 22;369559 wroteI am currently not working and not collecting EI so I will stick to my 4:1 ^-^

I'd be willing to bet my house at 4-1. Let me know!!

The Prophet 22

The Prophet 22;369538 wrote

500 hands per day

must show a profit every day even it is just one cent.

yes, i can reload whenever

every time i reload or top up, i'd still have to win all that back in the one day to show a profit.

if i show a profit every day and play at least 500 hands a day for ten straight days - i win.

if i fail to show a profit on any single day - i lose.

if i fail to play 500 hands in a day - i lose.

I will do 10.00 at 4:1

Let me know ^-^

UBetIFold;369562 wroteI'd be willing to bet my house at 4-1. Let me know!!

I will do 10.00 at 4:1

Although if Wetts is looking at 20:1, you may go with him if you are willing to lose your house. ^-^

Start a new thread.

Log every session and re-buy for each day for ten straight days and we will see what happens. it will be interesting to read your stats.

Prophet 22

trigs

well if i had started this tonight, it would have been rough. i lost a big one around hand 480 (which if i was doing the challenge i probably would have just folded with 20 hands left). i had too many outs to count when the money went in on the flop and missed them all. obviously villain showed AAxx.

i really just played this out for "practice" i guess. took me an extra 84 hands before this one saved my night:

PokerStars Zoom Omaha Pot Limit ($0.02/$0.05)
Table 'Lynx' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dummmb ($15.18 in chips)
Seat 2: beibe90 ($16.79 in chips)
Seat 3: m_dolens ($11.10 in chips)
Seat 4: elad12345678 ($5.95 in chips)
Seat 5: Firstgames ($16.55 in chips)
Seat 6: keksas88 ($31.56 in chips)
beibe90: posts small blind $0.02
m_dolens: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to m_dolens [9d Jh Tc Qs]
elad12345678: folds
Firstgames: folds
keksas88: folds
dummmb: calls $0.05
beibe90: folds
m_dolens: raises $0.12 to $0.17
dummmb: calls $0.12
*** FLOP *** [Kc Td 2d]
m_dolens: bets $0.30
dummmb: calls $0.30
*** TURN *** [Kc Td 2d] [Th]
m_dolens: bets $0.78
dummmb: calls $0.78
*** RIVER *** [Kc Td 2d Th] [Jc]
m_dolens: bets $2.04
dummmb: raises $6.50 to $8.54
m_dolens: calls $6.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dummmb: shows [Ad Ah Qh 6h] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
m_dolens: shows [9d Jh Tc Qs] (a full house, Tens full of Jacks)
m_dolens collected $18.84 from pot

like i said, it was a rough night, so stats obviously aren't the greatest. (also, my tracker doesn't accept zoom so this is just the stats from the table.)

584 hands
$3.81 profit
0.7 BBs/100
Saw Flop 19%
Went to Showdown 53%
Won w/o Showdown 74

The Prophet 22

trigs;369578 wrote
584 hands
$3.81 profit
0.7 BBs/100
Saw Flop 19%
Went to Showdown 53%
Won w/o Showdown 74

I think the odds at are pretty good for you to win this. Especially if you take the "Diggstown" approach to this prop bet.

If Al or Pinhead want to show us what the odds should be, that would be interesting.

To be clear on doing this, it would be a .02 - 05 cent game only for ten straight days. No ability to move up. Correct?

moose

I think 4 or 5 to 1 is pretty fair, considering you can continue to play until you show a profit and check fold your way to a win if ahead. You really have no disincentive at all to continue playing if you are stuck.

I would say 10 to 1 or more would be realistic if say you had to play min 500 hands and maximum 2000.

trigs

moose;369587 wroteI think 4 or 5 to 1 is pretty fair, considering you can continue to play until you show a profit and check fold your way to a win if ahead. You really have no disincentive at all to continue playing if you are stuck.

I would say 10 to 1 or more would be realistic if say you had to play min 500 hands and maximum 2000.

i'll grant you the check/folding to a profit, but i don't know if i agree with the "continuing to play until you show a profit" necessarily as a positive for me because if i'm tilting/just losing, playing more hands isn't simply a guaranteed to help my cause. but i get your point.

i may consider agreeing to a cap number of hands per day maybe. i might be okay with 2000-2500 cap perhaps.