Analyze This

hiphopopotamus

T8urmoney;358511 wroteNot sure I understand why you're happy to get it in with 50% and one pair, but not 50% and a draw? A flip is still a flip.

I don't think the question has anything to do with whether I'd get it in with the aces or not (which I probably would). I just think that in this situation, there's a second less variance (but still +EV) way to play your draw and, against a tighter opening range from EP, I'd prefer to play it that way. I did just re-read the OP and the description that you thought of him as an online guy so I'm also okay with a c/r and getting it in but would probably go with just calling most of the time.

Just out of curiosity, how would you guys play the aces to the check/raise?

hiphopopotamus

I feel this is something I need to pokerstove (aces vs BB range) but it seems like pokerstove still doesn't have support for macs. Is there another program I can use?

GTA Poker

Maybe I am approaching the EP hand too much as a cash game player where I am never getting it in that spot with 1 pair and no draw? I just don't see how you can give me a range where you are getting it in good.

In cash games you make money vs players stacking with 1 pair.

GTA Poker

hiphopopotamus;358509 wrote
Answering part two of your question: to me, it doesn't look like the scariest board for aces. Hands that you'd be worried about would be 44, QT and less often tens (depending on the player). I think there's a lot more hands that aces are beating/racing with (Qx, combo draws) than there are hands that crush them. You could flat but a lot of scare cards can potentially come on the turn and you're in an awkward spot with just a psb left. I'd be pretty comfortable with going with it for 100k.

Do you really think Qx is c/r here very often? I don't. There isn't much value in that line IMO.

The only combo draws are ATdd KJdd J9dd and K9dd with which you are basically flipping (and I don't think K9dd gets it in here all that often), so that leaves you with these hands and sets which have you crushed. I guess you could throw in AQ there, but I doubt that AQ is ever calling in that spot (I know I never would).

hiphopopotamus

There are only 3 hands that have you in bad shape: 44, QT (which isn't the worst hand to be up against), and tens (which may or may not be less likely based on someone's tendency to 3b with them). I can see good Qx hands c/r'ing as well as combo draws and depending on how aggressive the player is, other flush draws/straight draws/one pair/bluffs. With the third player in the hand having folded, it could put more bluffs/semi-bluffs in your range too.

I just feel like there are a lot more hands that I'm beating/flipping with than I'll be crushed by. Obviously a dry board would be different but given this draw heavy board, I'd find it hard to get away from it.

hiphopopotamus

GTA Poker;358517 wroteDo you really think Qx is c/r here very often? I don't. There isn't much value in that line IMO.

The only combo draws are ATdd KJdd J9dd and K9dd with which you are basically flipping (and I don't think K9dd gets it in here all that often), so that leaves you with these hands and sets which have you crushed. I guess you could throw in AQ there, but I doubt that AQ is ever calling in that spot (I know I never would).

Depends on the player. I agree that it's a terrible line but you see bad players go crazy with top pair all the time. I just think a check-raising range of only sets and combo draws is really tight for an average (re: bad) aggressive player.

GTA Poker

hiphopopotamus;358520 wroteDepends on the player. I agree that it's a terrible line but you see bad players go crazy with top pair all the time. I just think a check-raising range of only sets and combo draws is really tight for an average (re: bad) aggressive player.

Maybe, but he is playing his hand face up so it's tough to expect any Q to call in this spot and my table was playing pretty tight on top of that.

hiphopopotamus

Hmm. Yeah. We need Darryl to just come in and tell us what to do so we can sleep.

ryanghall

Once you decide to CR on the flop, you're going with it.

Both CR and lead are fine, and I like your reasoning behind the CR.

moose

Welcome back Superlurker!

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