Analyze This

GTA Poker

Deerfoot Megastack $450. 120ish runners, 55ish left. 25k starting stacks. Avg stack 55-60k.

Blinds 800 1600, 200 ante.
9 handed.

EP (100k) R to 3200...I have him as a decent online player by his bet sizing, age, general play. He hasn't played a large number of hands, but has stolen a few pots here and there with cbets vs tighter players in position. Seems on the tighter side.

Button (40k) thinks forever and calls.

SB folds.

I (100k) have KJdd in the BB and call. POT 12200 -- I haven't shown down any weak hands, I have show down a set and a full house for my only 2 big pots. I have stolen several small pots vs the tighter players.

Flop QdTs4d.

I often lead out here but decide to try and c/r given that around 15 hands ago I c/r a set vs an overpair and got it all in stacking someone for 45k. I am assuming a c/r gives me more fold equity in this spot given that history and given how deep (70bb) we are.

GTA: check
EP: Bet 7k (POT 19200)
Button: Fold

GTA: Raise to 25k (POT 44200)
EP: Instashoves -- this narrowed his range for me to AA/KK/AQ as I am certain this player pauses with a set and does not shove a naked flush draw or ATdd...it is extremely rare for a live player not to pause with a set in this spot before raising.
Button: Fold
GTA: snap call

EP: AA

With that pot size I am always calling for chip EV, but in a tournament is anyone every folding to preserve a 70k stack? My table had probably 3 solid internet players, a solid live player, a tight but solid live player, a good live player, an overly tight live player, one bad live player and me...so not a great table.

My thoughts: I know if I win that pot I can dominate the table as it was playing fairly tight, but at the same time I could probably chip up with 70k as well.

IMO EP way overplayed his hand 70bb deep given that my range in that spot to commit 70bb is pretty much QT, KJdd and sets.

Part 2:

Another interesting question -- what do you do given all the above info if you are in EP's position after I c/r the flop to 25k?

moose

Personally not playing deepstack for hours and hours to min cash or bubble. Break wrists putting chips in middle.

AA, prolly flat the 25k, shove safe turn card, cry when shown set. Enough chips to get away on turn.

BlondeFish

GTA Poker;358351 wroteWith that pot size I am always calling for chip EV, but in a tournament is anyone every folding to preserve a 70k stack?

No, only if I am a weak-tight survivalist, or if I have such a delusional ego that I think I have a huge edge on everybody else that I can pass up +EV plays. You need only 34.9% equity to make calling correct (71,800 / 205,800) and you are easily getting that against a non-set range with ~14 outs. Against AA, you are a slight underdog with 48.5% equity.

EP: Instashoves
:
GTA: snap call

This is the main part that both players did wrong. As Dan Harrington wrote, the worst decision in an all-in is NOT calling or folding, but in making a snap decision.

This is similar to my final hand in the Casino Rama tournament. I value bet on the flop, villain raises, I put him on a semi-bluff draw and eventually 3-bet him all-in without having to break my wrists, arms, elbows or shoulders. He snap calls with an Ace-high flush draw, I'm 54% ahead, and the rest is history.

GTA Poker

BlondeFish;358358 wroteNo, only if I am a weak-tight survivalist, or if I have such a delusional ego that I think I have a huge edge on everybody else that I can pass up +EV plays. You need only 34.9% equity to make calling correct (71,800 / 205,800) and you are easily getting that against a non-set range with ~14 outs. Against AA, you are a slight underdog with 48.5% equity.

This is the main part that both players did wrong. As Dan Harrington wrote, the worst decision in an all-in is NOT calling or folding, but in making a snap decision.

This is similar to my final hand in the Casino Rama tournament. I value bet on the flop, villain raises, I put him on a semi-bluff draw and eventually 3-bet him all-in without breaking my wrists, arms, elbows or shoulders. He snap calls with an Ace-high flush draw, I'm 54% ahead, and the rest is history.

It was a snap after all the above info on previous streets was known. I knew what he had so I'm not going to tank with an oesdfd. I think my snap is pretty easy given all the info I had and the odds I was getting even if you want to throw a set into his range. His snap shove with 1 pair was awful IMO.

BlondeFish

GTA Poker;358361 wroteHis snap shove with 1 pair was awful IMO.

Yes, snap shoving is bad just like snap calling a shove. If he put you on a correct range that he was likely ahead just like you were able to put him on a correct range that you had the odds to call with your draws, then him taking the time would have been better for him in deliberating whether flatting or 3-betting would have higher EV.

As the author of the most advanced poker book I've read in the past 7 years wrote, if you ever snap-call a shove without the nuts, you played it wrong, regardless of the results.

GTA Poker

They are very different situations. There is no range he has in this specific spot that I am not correct in calling. Whereas, I don't even think he puts me on a range in this hand. In his spot I take my time and decide, in my spot it is virtually a no brainer wrt the odds.

If you know the odds and your opponents range and have done all the calculations already how long are you supposed to take to decide? Taking longer than necessary to make the obvious decision in live poker is just terrible and is what is killing live games in some areas. It's not like it takes more than a few seconds to place his range and calculate pot odds in this spot. It is fold or call.

BlondeFish

Just like "LAG," it could be different interpretations of "snap call." Putting him on an all-in range and calculating pot odds AFTER I ask the dealer how much is the all-in then to put the 25,000 bets into the pot takes longer than a "snap call" for me. Last time I insta shoved my chips into the middle, I almost broke my elbow and had to put a Band-Aid; now I carry a Band-Aid in my wallet like some kids carry a condom. :-[

GTA Poker;358368 wrote... place his range and calculate pot odds

GTA Poker

Considering how many grey hairs I'm getting, I'm pretty quick with the maths. It probably helps that I've been playing lots of hands of live poker for 10+ years and can quite accurately count a stack(s) from across the table. I always know what my opponents are playing as the hand starts and in this case we both had almost identical 100k stacks composed of primarily 5k chips, so it was all relatively quick and easy.

I see your point re: snap calling, but in this case it was a pretty black and white situation for me.

Anyhow, not really playing many tournaments my main consideration was whether there are any instances where experienced live tournament players would fold this spot given how deep I was...I am doubtful anyone would, but just wanted some further opinions.

In a cash game I am never folding in this identical situation (although I would never be playing this shallow in cash), but there has to be some validity of folding with 40+bb left when I got to 70bb without ever really having my stack at risk?

sn1perb0y

Analyzing this, thinking of how i play in tournaments, at late mid tournament with having double the average stack. I play very cautiously and tight against the players that have the same amount of chip stack or higher. Your hand had very good odds yet it is not much if it does not hit. The question is weather you want to risk your whole stack for a dominant double up or grind your way up. I personally like to grind my way up and risk my big stack only when I am a big favorite.

BlondeFish

sn1perb0y;358437 wroteI personally like to grind my way up and risk my big stack only when I am a big favorite.

Where do you play tournaments? ;)

sn1perb0y

only online

I am thinking of going to the ftp Montreal festival.

GTA Poker

Wetts opinion please

T8urmoney

GTA Poker;358454 wroteWetts opinion please

phuck Wetts.......T8 is here

why the phuck do I miss these draws more than I miss gutshots?

Anyhow, I've always been as happy as Compuease at a nit convention to get it in here all day on the flop...

If we check raise here, we're looking to get it in on the flop (sorry Blondefish, but it's a snap as played......always know what your plan is).

Now, if we check call flop (7k).....check call turn (assuming 15k?).....and check folding river if we miss all streets (-25.4k total in hand).

Will we get maximum action if we hit turn or river? If yes, then we'd end up +100k if we hit, while only losing 25% of our chips if we miss (a nit's pov)

Obv we're missing out on the number of times they are folding to a checkraise on the flop...which is probably significant, and makes this the best play imo.

All in all, hand was played well, and I believe, to maximize ev.

GTA Poker

Well I thought to ask Wetts and T8 but I knew T8 would get it in faster than me.

hiphopopotamus

If you're going to c/r, you have to run with it given how big the pot is and your equity.

I really don't mind calling a bet on the flop though and it'd probably be what I'd do if I thought EP's opening range was fairly narrow. If he's a decent player and you have the image of a decent player, he's probably not targeting your blinds light. If he was in later position and/or raising wider, I'd be more willing to c/r. You have a ton of chips, I'd just toss in the 7k and try to hit. Getting it in on the flop is a bit too high variance for my taste. To me, the risk of busting is greater than the benefit you would get from the extra 100k at this stage of the tournament.

compuease

GTA Poker;358479 wroteWell I thought to ask Wetts and T8 but I knew T8 would get it in faster than me.

all while getting chat banned...;)

GTA Poker

hiphopopotamus;358494 wroteIf you're going to c/r, you have to run with it given how big the pot is and your equity.

I really don't mind calling a bet on the flop though and it'd probably be what I'd do if I thought EP's opening range was fairly narrow. If he's a decent player and you have the image of a decent player, he's probably not targeting your blinds light. If he was in later position and/or raising wider, I'd be more willing to c/r. You have a ton of chips, I'd just toss in the 7k and try to hit. Getting it in on the flop is a bit too high variance for my taste. To me, the risk of busting is greater than the benefit you would get from the extra 100k at this stage of the tournament.

You don't feel that a c/r has fold equity on that flop vs a good player that deep? I know that I can never shove 100k as the EP in that spot with 1 pair.

hiphopopotamus

GTA Poker;358504 wroteYou don't feel that a c/r has fold equity on that flop vs a good player that deep? I know that I can never shove 100k as the EP in that spot with 1 pair.

A c/r has fold equity and may be greater cEV but it's the more higher variance play and can result in you flipping your tournament life for chips you don't really need at this stage. You're getting enough immediate odds to call to hit your draw and, if you factor in any sort of implied odds, calling is definitely +EV too. It might be just my style of play but I'd rather not take this risk in a tournament with a structure that good. See a cheap turn and still have 90k to work with.

Answering part two of your question: to me, it doesn't look like the scariest board for aces. Hands that you'd be worried about would be 44, QT and less often tens (depending on the player). I think there's a lot more hands that aces are beating/racing with (Qx, combo draws) than there are hands that crush them. You could flat but a lot of scare cards can potentially come on the turn and you're in an awkward spot with just a psb left. I'd be pretty comfortable with going with it for 100k.

T8urmoney

hiphopopotamus;358509 wroteA c/r has fold equity and may be greater cEV but it's the more higher variance play and can result in you flipping your tournament life for chips you don't really need at this stage. You're getting enough immediate odds to call to hit your draw and, if you factor in any sort of implied odds, calling is definitely +EV too. It might be just my style of play but I'd rather not take this risk in a tournament with a structure that good. See a cheap turn and still have 90k to work with.

Answering part two of your question: to me, it doesn't look like the scariest board for aces. Hands that you'd be worried about would be 44, QT and less often tens (depending on the player). I think there's a lot more hands that aces are beating/racing with (Qx, combo draws) than there are hands that crush them. You could flat but a lot of scare cards can potentially come on the turn and you're in an awkward spot with just a psb left. I'd be pretty comfortable with going with it for 100k.

Not sure I understand why you're happy to get it in with 50% and one pair, but not 50% and a draw? A flip is still a flip.

GTA Poker

T8urmoney;358511 wroteNot sure I understand why you're happy to get it in with 50% and one pair, but not 50% and a draw? A flip is still a flip.

To add to this, I think that my line has more fold equity than his.