Math Help!!! min raise folding

GTA Poker

pepsi

DrTyore

D. Negreanu;359593 wroteUm no he had no chances.

Not entirely sure what you're talking about... you know this guy is clearly darbday right?

Mark

Macke

no pepsi, coke

piggypie123

It was only a 1 year ban for Darb, wasn't it?

UBetIFold

What he do?

GTA Poker

#racistfuck

ryanghall

darbday;322372 wroteI've been trying to find somewhere that could explain to me the theory of min-raise/folding. I think I finally made headway into figuring it out and understanding the concept. But some of the math trips me up. This will be a scratch pad for it because I know there are a bunch here who can clear this up or check it. I'm also pretty sure a lot of mtt grinders here wanna see this math.

This certainly needs checking because I haven't worked it all out yet...

I was told by V that min raising is a separate event from calling a shove...so......

PART1

Ex: blinds are 100/200/25 antes 9 handed........

So if we min raise we raise we risk 400 to win 525 (blinds + antes)

which gives us 1.3125 to 1 on our bet (525/400)

which is 100 * (1 + 1.3125)^-1 = 43.24%

So if our min raise gets through 43.24% or more of the time, its profitable with any two cards.

PART2

So assuming 43.24% is correct if we are in the sb and action is folded to us, we can profitably min raise ATC as long as the bb doesn't reshove more than 1-43.24% = 56.76% of hands

PART3

If there is more than one opponent behind us the formula for the amount of times we get through is the percent each of our opponents folds multiplied together.

so if we min raise from the CU
Bu reshoves 20%
Sb reshove 10%
Bb reshoves 15%

we get through .8 * .9 * .85 = .612 = 60%

but we only we only to get through 43.24%

Part 4

From each position we can take the nth root of 43.24 where n is the players left to act and see what the average reshove range needs to be for us to min raise to show a profit (so assuming each villain shoves the same, whats their max shove range that we can still min raise ATC):

[ATTACH]1263[/ATTACH]

Part 5

There seems to be an relation between the sum of the reshove %'s and their product. So if one player shoves 5% too much we are ok if another player folds 5% to much. I don't think its exactly linear but I don't want to dig so far into it until I know the rest is correct.

Also it may be too complex to figure out the adjusting with so many variables but I think if we treat it linear the amount of error is small?

This is why you can't just rely on math. There are too many factors in poker to often successfully use math. You haven't taken into account that when you raise with 52o or whatever and you get called, you're in a position with negative implied odds. Also, people float a LOT these days in the BB and its very difficult to play bvb oop.

BlondeFish

Darbday's assumptions may have been wrong, but math can still be used in factoring in the negative implied odds and positional disadvantage to see that min-raising with 43.24% of hands is not necessarily profitable.

ryanghall;361979 wroteThis is why you can't just rely on math. There are too many factors in poker to often successfully use math. You haven't taken into account that when you raise with 52o or whatever and you get called, you're in a position with negative implied odds. Also, people float a LOT these days in the BB and its very difficult to play bvb oop.

[deleted]

ryanghall;361979 wroteThis is why you can't just rely on math. There are too many factors in poker to often successfully use math. You haven't taken into account that when you raise with 52o or whatever and you get called, you're in a position with negative implied odds. Also, people float a LOT these days in the BB and its very difficult to play bvb oop.

So much to say about this.

BlondeFish;361987 wroteDarbday's assumptions may have been wrong, but math can still be used in factoring in the negative implied odds and positional disadvantage to see that min-raising with 43.24% of hands is not necessarily profitable.

So much to say about this.

The vid is around but its out of date, I've pushed this line very far since. Looking forward to bouncing it off others!

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