Yes, if you are outside the blinds, then if your min-raise will win the pot right there 43.24% of the time or more, then min-raising is a +EV play.
im glad the number is correct, to me its the nth root stuff that is game changing (for me).
You forgot about the fact that you have already posted the SB, so you are in fact betting 300 to win 525. So, if your min-raise will take it down right away 36.4% (or more) of the time, then min-raising is +EV from the SB.
Yes this is about my other question, I haven't sorted it out yet but seems we get a lot better price.
But, looking at it from the BBs position, folding to the min-raise is a pretty big mistake no matter what their hand. They need to invest 200 to try and win 825 - so they only need to win 32% of the time with the added bonuses of position on the min-raiser, with the SB having no clue as to which 2 cards they hold.
most people don't take advantage of this, once they are past 'beginner' they are uncomfortable playing in either blind....not all thought, but few people flat 73s or q7o or t5o etc.
As someone stated earlier, it comes down to the flatting tendencies of the BB. If they are mathematically/positionally savvy then your min-raise should not work as well as you hope - unless the blinds are so high that it now becomes a matter of they need to fold or shove.
Here were talking about strategy which i haven't brought up yet, im still looking at the math, but I do play turbos where most of the tournament is played shortstack. So this doesn't suggest we can min raise wherever when ever, but when stack behind are short we can have an idea how wide our opponent has to flat or shove to make a raise -ev.
Still curious about the rest of the math, but I have more applications when I know its correct.
THX!!!!!
